Aggregator

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 5 21:45:12 UTC 2025.

MD 1890 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1890 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...south central North Dakota and adjacent north central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051940Z - 052145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm activity, perhaps including the evolution of a sustained supercell appears probable by 5-7 PM CDT, if not earlier, before transitioning to an organizing, southeastward propagating cluster into this evening. A severe weather watch will likely be needed, but timing remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a generally dissipating cluster of thunderstorms spreading into the Red River Valley, lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is being maintained across much of the Dakotas, on the northern periphery of a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. This includes temperatures as warm as +10 to +12 C around 700 mb, as far northeast as southwestern North Dakota through north central and northeastern South Dakota, beneath which stronger boundary-layer warming and destabilization is ongoing. Around and north through east of the Bismarck ND vicinity, the boundary-layer has been slower to modify in the wake of the preceding convection, but forcing for ascent has been sufficient to overcome inhibition and support renewed thunderstorm development. This has been gradually increasing near the nose of a 30 kt southerly low-level jet, which may strengthen a bit further into early evening. Northward advection of warmer and more moist boundary-layer air along this axis is likely to contribute to substantive further boundary-layer destabilization, and, at some point, a rapid intensification of thunderstorm activity. Once this occurs, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath 30-40 kt westerly 500 mb flow, the environment appears conducive to the evolution of a significant supercell with potential to produce large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before growing growing upscale into an organizing southeastward propagating cluster by this evening. ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 46380187 47080062 46989902 46439791 45929837 45549908 45379992 45600092 45870202 46380187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 20:42:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 21:27:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 20:47:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 21:21:56 GMT

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0574 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0574 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 024 FONT14 KNHC 052046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 117 WTNT44 KNHC 052046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 This afternoon Dexter continues to exhibit a pulsing convective structure. After briefly becoming exposed earlier today, the low-level circulation has tucked underneath a renewed convective burst on its down-shear side. Despite its ragged appearance, an earlier scatterometer pass indicated that Dexter's circulation had tightened up some with a smaller radius of maximum wind. The peak wind value retrieved was 35 kt, which still supports a current intensity of 35 kt this advisory. This value is higher than the 18 UTC subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, but a bit lower than the some of the objective intensity estimates (DMINT, SATCON). Dexter continues to move off to the northeast, with the latest motion estimated at 055/11 kt. This direction of motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gentle bend towards the east-northeast, across the North Atlantic. However, the speed of the forward motion continues to be uncertain, with large along-track spread in the guidance. The GFS continues to be on the slow end, while the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) are on the faster end of the guidance suite. The latest NHC track forecast continues to favor the faster track solutions, and is a blend of the prior forecast track, with some of the more reliable consensus aids (HCCA). Vertical wind shear over the system is now above 30 kt out of the west-southwest, and is forecast to increase further over the next 24-48 hours. However, the majority of the intensity guidance indicates Dexter may strengthen due to baroclinic dynamics from a favorable trough interaction. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows some strengthening, peaking Dexter as a 50 kt extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours. This forecast is roughly in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope, though notably lower than the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts, which develop a potent sting-jet-like structure as Dexter becomes extratropical. After the extratropical low occludes, it should gradually weaken, eventually opening up into a trough by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 38.6N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 39.9N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 40.6N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 41.9N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0600Z 43.1N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 44.0N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 45.3N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 678 WTNT24 KNHC 052044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 62.2W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 62.2W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.9N 57.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 40.6N 53.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 41.9N 49.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.1N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 45.3N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 62.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 679 WTNT34 KNHC 052044 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 ...DEXTER MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 62.2W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 62.2 West. Dexter is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with gradual acceleration over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as the system becomes an extratropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEXTER MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 05 the center of Dexter was located near 38.6, -62.2 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 20:42:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 20:42:51 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052041 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a convective curved band on the west side of the cyclone and a cluster of strong thunderstorms with cold cloud tops of -70 Celsius just to the west of Henriette's surface circulation center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB subjective and CIMSS objective intensity estimates. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, although 5-kt fluctuations are possible, while Henriette moves over slightly cooler water and through an increasingly inhibiting thermodynamic environment. Toward the end of the week, the thermodynamic environment is expected to become even more hostile while Henriette moves over the subtropical central Pacific waters. Therefore, some weakening of the cyclone is forecast through day 5. The official intensity forecast is based on the IVCN intensity consensus model and the Decay-SHIPS statistical aid. Henriette's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/13 kt, and a west-northwestward or westward motion should continue through day 4 while the cyclone is steered by a strong mid-level ridge stretching across the subtropical Central Pacific. Over the weekend, Henriette is expected to turn gradually northwestward in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the Central North Pacific. The NHC track forecast is based on the various consensus aids and is basically an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 17.0N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.4N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 18.8N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 19.4N 139.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 22.3N 147.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 152.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 628 FOPZ13 KNHC 052040 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

...HENRIETTE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Aug 05 the center of Henriette was located near 17.0, -125.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 052040 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 ...HENRIETTE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 125.6W ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 125.6 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is expected later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 697 WTPZ23 KNHC 052040 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 130.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.4N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.8N 136.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.4N 139.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.3N 147.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 152.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 125.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A mid-level trough will gradually progress across the northwestern U.S. through the weekend, before ejecting into the Plains and zonal flow becoming established west of the Rockies by early next week. Multiple mid-level impulses are poised to pivot around the main upper trough, promoting critically dry and windy conditions across parts of the Interior West toward the end of this week, with isolated dry thunderstorms possible each day through the weekend. ...Days 3-4 (Thursday-Friday) - Great Basin into the Rockies... As multiple mid-level impulses continue to graze the Interior West, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface wind should coincide with 5-15 percent RH Thursday and Friday. Fuels are receptive across the entire region, and 40/70 percent highlights have been added where confidence is highest in the aforementioned dry/windy conditions overlapping for several hours each afternoon. Surface winds should be strongest across the Great Basin on Thursday, where high-end Critical conditions are possible as a 500 mb wind maximum glances by to the north. ...Days 3-6 (Thursday-Sunday) - Portions of the Southwest... Toward the end of the week into the weekend, isolated thunderstorm development is expected each afternoon to the immediate south and east of the Four Corners region. Modest southwesterly 500 mb flow pivoting around an upper ridge will encourage forward motion of any thunderstorms that develop. Given the presence of a hot and dry boundary layer across the Southwest, these storms should be high-based, with at least a mix of wet/dry storms likely. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added on Thursday-Sunday for areas that have experienced minimal rainfall, and where fuels appear to be highly susceptible to lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A mid-level trough will gradually progress across the northwestern U.S. through the weekend, before ejecting into the Plains and zonal flow becoming established west of the Rockies by early next week. Multiple mid-level impulses are poised to pivot around the main upper trough, promoting critically dry and windy conditions across parts of the Interior West toward the end of this week, with isolated dry thunderstorms possible each day through the weekend. ...Days 3-4 (Thursday-Friday) - Great Basin into the Rockies... As multiple mid-level impulses continue to graze the Interior West, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface wind should coincide with 5-15 percent RH Thursday and Friday. Fuels are receptive across the entire region, and 40/70 percent highlights have been added where confidence is highest in the aforementioned dry/windy conditions overlapping for several hours each afternoon. Surface winds should be strongest across the Great Basin on Thursday, where high-end Critical conditions are possible as a 500 mb wind maximum glances by to the north. ...Days 3-6 (Thursday-Sunday) - Portions of the Southwest... Toward the end of the week into the weekend, isolated thunderstorm development is expected each afternoon to the immediate south and east of the Four Corners region. Modest southwesterly 500 mb flow pivoting around an upper ridge will encourage forward motion of any thunderstorms that develop. Given the presence of a hot and dry boundary layer across the Southwest, these storms should be high-based, with at least a mix of wet/dry storms likely. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added on Thursday-Sunday for areas that have experienced minimal rainfall, and where fuels appear to be highly susceptible to lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A mid-level trough will gradually progress across the northwestern U.S. through the weekend, before ejecting into the Plains and zonal flow becoming established west of the Rockies by early next week. Multiple mid-level impulses are poised to pivot around the main upper trough, promoting critically dry and windy conditions across parts of the Interior West toward the end of this week, with isolated dry thunderstorms possible each day through the weekend. ...Days 3-4 (Thursday-Friday) - Great Basin into the Rockies... As multiple mid-level impulses continue to graze the Interior West, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface wind should coincide with 5-15 percent RH Thursday and Friday. Fuels are receptive across the entire region, and 40/70 percent highlights have been added where confidence is highest in the aforementioned dry/windy conditions overlapping for several hours each afternoon. Surface winds should be strongest across the Great Basin on Thursday, where high-end Critical conditions are possible as a 500 mb wind maximum glances by to the north. ...Days 3-6 (Thursday-Sunday) - Portions of the Southwest... Toward the end of the week into the weekend, isolated thunderstorm development is expected each afternoon to the immediate south and east of the Four Corners region. Modest southwesterly 500 mb flow pivoting around an upper ridge will encourage forward motion of any thunderstorms that develop. Given the presence of a hot and dry boundary layer across the Southwest, these storms should be high-based, with at least a mix of wet/dry storms likely. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added on Thursday-Sunday for areas that have experienced minimal rainfall, and where fuels appear to be highly susceptible to lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more