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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through much of the evening across the Dakotas. ...Northern Plains... Visible-satellite/radar mosaic imagery late this morning shows a cluster of sub-severe thunderstorms associated with a lead lobe of mid-level ascent/MCV moving through the base of a larger-scale trough centered over MT/Saskatchewan. Deleterious effects of widespread cloud cover over far northern SD into ND will likely hinder appreciable destabilization through the early afternoon. However, earlier forecast thinking of a differential heating zone becoming more focused along the ND-SD border to the east of a weak cyclone will potentially become consequential for the severe risk later this afternoon/evening. A reservoir of adequately rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s deg F will likely protrude northward into southern ND as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Cloud breaks will contribute to moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) to the south of more stable conditions likely being maintained throughout the day near the Canadian border. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs by mid-late afternoon and into the evening with a 40-kt southerly LLJ centered on SD. Short-term model guidance indicates renewed storm development is most likely east of the low along the differential heating zone with this activity spreading east into more vorticity-rich air. Seasonably large uncertainty remains regarding this forecast during the 22-02z period in which peak severe may occur. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before clusters evolve and the propensity for cold pool coalescence becomes detrimental for the supercell threat and wind becomes the primary hazard later this evening. Considerable uncertainty exists overnight on the potential evolution of a cluster and an incipient wind threat into parts of the MO Valley and Upper Midwest. ..Smith/Wendt.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 14:40:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 15:27:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 14:40:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 14:40:33 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 333 FOPZ13 KNHC 051438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 804 WTPZ43 KNHC 051438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 Henriette's cloud pattern has deteriorated a bit overnight. Modest southeasterly shear, evidence of a slight southeast to northwest tilt with height in a 0638 UTC GPM microwave image, and an increasingly inhibiting thermodynamic environment continue to impede strengthening. Based on a compromise of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and recent CIMSS SATCON objective intensity analysis of 46 kt, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the next few days due to the above mentioned adverse atmospheric conditions, and Henriette traversing slightly cooler oceanic temperatures. Only the HAFS-B hurricane model suggests an increase to 50 kt during the 24-36 hrs. Of course, a 5 kt increase isn't out of the question. Beyond day 3, toward the end of the week, the thermodynamic environment is expected to become even more stifling while Henriette moves over the subtropical central Pacific waters. Subsequently, gradual weakening is noted in the official forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one and is hedged toward the IVCN intensity consensus, and is just above the Decay-SHIPS statistical aid. Henriette's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. A general west-northwestward or westward motion is expected through day 4 while a strong subtropical ridge remains to the north of the cyclone. Toward the end of the period, Henriette is forecast to gradually turn northwestward in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the central north Pacific. The track forecast is essentially an update from the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the ECMWF control. Henriette's wind radii were adjusted based on a 0839 UTC Oceansat-3 Scatterometer overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 124.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.4N 134.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 18.8N 137.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 19.3N 140.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 21.0N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.4N 150.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts