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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula. Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific
basin Thursday night or Friday.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles offshore of
the coast of Central America is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW SHR TO 15 NNW MLS. WW 573 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050500Z. ..GLEASON..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-087-050500- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN ROSEBUD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 573 SEVERE TSTM MT 042240Z - 050500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should spread east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph. Isolated large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter may also occur with any of the stronger cells that can persist. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Great Falls MT to 75 miles south of Glasgow MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571...WW 572... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:45:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 03:27:05 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:42:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 03:21:56 GMT

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE TAD TO 45 W SPD TO 25 WNW SPD TO 5 SSE SPD TO 5 SSW EHA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-050440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS NMC059-050440- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TXC111-050440- Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE TAD TO 45 W SPD TO 25 WNW SPD TO 5 SSE SPD TO 5 SSW EHA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-050440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS NMC059-050440- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TXC111-050440- Read more

WW 572 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 042205Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Far Northeast New Mexico The Western Oklahoma Panhandle The Far Northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Slow-moving supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail this afternoon and evening. Peak hailstone diameters may reach up to 2-3 inches on an isolated basis. Occasional severe/damaging winds could also occur if any clusters can form, although this potential remains uncertain. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Lamar CO to 30 miles south southeast of Clayton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32010. ...Gleason Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:45:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:45:30 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 016 FONT14 KNHC 050239 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 017 FOPZ13 KNHC 050239 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 11 16(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 146 WTNT44 KNHC 050239 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 Dexter continues to be disrupted by strong westerly vertical wind shear, with its associated deep convection being displaced to the east of the low-level center. The storm's cloud pattern is very ragged-looking at this time and lacks convective banding features. Satellite-based intensity estimates using subjective and objective methods range from 30 kt to 47 kt. Blending these values, the advisory intensity estimate remains 40 kt, though a recent scatterometer pass suggests this might be generous. Although there is some uncertainty in the center location using infrared imagery, it appears that the forward speed has slowed somewhat and the current motion estimate is around 050/11 kt. Dexter is near the southern edge of a belt of mid-level westerlies. The track guidance is in general agreement on a northeastward to east-northeastward motion for the next several days. However, it is possible that the system could become completely decoupled and move more slowly in the low-level flow. The official forecast assumes that the cyclone will retain enough vertical coherency to be steered at least partially by the mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. There is no sign that the strong shear in Dexter's environment will abate. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates that the vertical wind shear will increase even more over the next few days. Therefore, it is not likely that the system will be able to strengthen as a true tropical cyclone. The official forecast allows for slight intensification due to baroclinic processes. Simulated infrared imagery and the FSU phase space predictions from the global models suggest that Dexter will likely make the transition into an extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 36.8N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 37.8N 64.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 38.9N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 40.2N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 41.2N 52.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0000Z 42.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 46.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 49.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 147 WTPZ43 KNHC 050239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 Henriette has become slightly better organized this afternoon, with curved banding becoming more defined and a brief burst of deep convection developing over the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 knots, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 39 to 43 knots during the past few hours and show an upward trend. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 knots. The cyclone is moving west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 13 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as Henriette moves along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north. Between 48 and 72 hours, a slight turn toward the west is forecast as the ridge strengthens north of the cyclone. Beyond 72 hours, a turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest is anticipated as a weakness develops in the ridge north of Hawaii due to an amplifying longwave trough near 160W. The official track forecast remains near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and is very close to the previous advisory. Henriette appears to have a brief window for further intensification over the next day or so, as sea surface temperatures hover between 26 and 27C, mid-level moisture remains sufficient, and vertical wind shear stays light. After 36 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over progressively cooler waters, with mid-level moisture gradually decreasing, and these conditions should lead to steady weakening. The official forecast maintains Henriette as a tropical cyclone through 120 hours, however, it would not be surprising if it transitions into a post-tropical low prior to day 5. The intensity forecast is most closely aligned with the SHIPS and ICON guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 18.6N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 19.9N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 148.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 Henriette has become slightly better organized this afternoon, with curved banding becoming more defined and a brief burst of deep convection developing over the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 knots, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 39 to 43 knots during the past few hours and show an upward trend. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 knots. The cyclone is moving west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 13 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as Henriette moves along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north. Between 48 and 72 hours, a slight turn toward the west is forecast as the ridge strengthens north of the cyclone. Beyond 72 hours, a turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest is anticipated as a weakness develops in the ridge north of Hawaii due to an amplifying longwave trough near 160W. The official track forecast remains near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and is very close to the previous advisory. Henriette appears to have a brief window for further intensification over the next day or so, as sea surface temperatures hover between 26 and 27C, mid-level moisture remains sufficient, and vertical wind shear stays light. After 36 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over progressively cooler waters, with mid-level moisture gradually decreasing, and these conditions should lead to steady weakening. The official forecast maintains Henriette as a tropical cyclone through 120 hours, however, it would not be surprising if it transitions into a post-tropical low prior to day 5. The intensity forecast is most closely aligned with the SHIPS and ICON guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 18.6N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 19.9N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 148.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC) NNNN