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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Central High Plains... An upper ridge extending from NM north-northeastward into the central High Plains will feature a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge through early Tuesday morning. The most notable disturbance over northeast UT late this morning is forecast to move east across southern WY by early evening and potentially play a role in storm development late this afternoon/evening. A seasonably moist airmass featuring 55-60 deg F dewpoints into eastern WY/NE Panhandle will undergo strong heating. Low-level southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels, resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing mechanism for convective initiation is fairly weak. The general expectation is that low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hills vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation with other widely scattered storms possible farther south. The environment supports supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving east across OR this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move into the northern Rockies by early evening and into the northern High Plains by daybreak. Strong large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough as it acquires a negative tilt, will favor isolated to scattered storms from the Snake Valley northward into north-central ID and into western/southwest MT. Initially cellular storms will pose an isolated risk for severe wind gusts. As storms move into the high plains, slightly greater low-level moisture will aid in more numerous storms developing and their attendant outflow. Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this activity as it moves east-northeast across MT. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast CO/northeast NM. Ample high-level flow atop strongly veering low-level winds, coupled with a very unstable airmass on the western periphery of rich moisture, will favor the possibility for a few supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado are the potential hazards. Some guidance shows a cluster evolving during the evening with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard. ...Central/Southeast Texas... A weakening squall line will continue southward to the middle TX coast over the next couple of hours with other weak thunderstorm activity perhaps lingering atop the cold pool. Isolated strong gusts will probably become increasingly localized during the midday. Read more