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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... During the late week time-frame, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest and move eastward into the northern Plains. As the system approaches, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. On Thursday, a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough could result in a cluster of storms with an isolated severe threat from Thursday evening into the overnight period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may again develop Friday afternoon and evening, as the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the northern Plains. As instability becomes maximized on Friday afternoon, a severe threat will be possible across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. The models are in reasonably good agreement on the timing of the mid-level system. For this reason, have added a 15 percent into the northern Plains to coincide with the projected locations of the instability axis and mid-level jet. On Saturday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains, as a belt of southwesterly flow shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development will be possible in the afternoon and evening, to the east of a front within an unstable airmass in the upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will again support an isolated severe threat across the region. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... The front is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. This will favor thunderstorm development along a corridor from Iowa northeastward into Wisconsin, where an isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. On Monday, forecasts suggest the instability axis will remain in a similar location. For this reason, a severe threat could again affect this same corridor. Due to the extended range in the forecast, there is some uncertainty concerning this scenario early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... During the late week time-frame, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest and move eastward into the northern Plains. As the system approaches, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. On Thursday, a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough could result in a cluster of storms with an isolated severe threat from Thursday evening into the overnight period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may again develop Friday afternoon and evening, as the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the northern Plains. As instability becomes maximized on Friday afternoon, a severe threat will be possible across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. The models are in reasonably good agreement on the timing of the mid-level system. For this reason, have added a 15 percent into the northern Plains to coincide with the projected locations of the instability axis and mid-level jet. On Saturday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains, as a belt of southwesterly flow shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development will be possible in the afternoon and evening, to the east of a front within an unstable airmass in the upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will again support an isolated severe threat across the region. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... The front is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. This will favor thunderstorm development along a corridor from Iowa northeastward into Wisconsin, where an isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. On Monday, forecasts suggest the instability axis will remain in a similar location. For this reason, a severe threat could again affect this same corridor. Due to the extended range in the forecast, there is some uncertainty concerning this scenario early next week. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 08:51:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 08:51:47 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 193 WTPZ43 KNHC 040850 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula have become better organized during the past 12 hours. Additionally, an overnight ASCAT pass showed a well-defined circulation with peak winds near 30 kt. Given the improved convective organization and well-defined circulation, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a blend of the ASCAT pass and Dvorak current intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is estimated at 300/13 kt, along the southern side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to remain in place through the 5-day period, steering the system generally west-northwestward for the entire forecast. A slightly more westward motion is possible by day 4 as the cyclone becomes more shallow and is steered within the low- to mid-level flow. The updated track forecast is close to the consensus aids. The system is forecast to steadily strengthen during the next couple of days as it moves over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. It is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday and could approach hurricane strength between 36 and 60 hours. After that time, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as the cyclone moves over sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C and begins to entrain drier mid-level air within a more stable environment. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models supports this scenario, showing a reduction in deep convection as the system continues west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin. The forecast is slightly above the intensity guidance through 60 hours, then is in good agreement with the consensus aids thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.4N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.4N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 16.4N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 18.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 19.8N 138.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 21.2N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 20 24(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 120W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) X(38) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 9(27) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040849 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 118.2W ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 118.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 03 the center of Eight-E was located near 13.7, -118.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 684 WTPZ23 KNHC 040848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.4N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.4N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.2N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.8N 138.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.2N 145.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 08:44:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 08:44:49 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040843 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 Dexter remains a sheared tropical storm. Animated Proxy-Visible imagery shows a partially exposed low-level center near the western edge of the convective canopy, a function of moderate shear. With little change in the convective signature or satellite estimates during the past few hours, the initial intensity will stay at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion continues east-northeastward at 10 kt, with Dexter steered by mid-latitude westerly flow on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge. Model guidance has come into better agreement on the system moving to the northeast or east-northeast for the next few days due to flow from that ridge, with fewer outlier solutions to note. Generally the models are a bit slower than the last cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend, though is still on the faster side of the guidance. The moderate shear currently affecting Dexter is expected to increase to over 20 kt by late today, with increasing environmental mid-level dry air. This should limit the potential strengthening to the short term, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the model consensus. While strong shear expected in a couple of days would normally cause weakening, there is some chance of a favorable trough interaction causing non-tropical intensification, as shown by the 00Z ECMWF model. Most of the global models, however, do not show the trough phasing with Dexter, though they are showing a stronger extratropical low. The new forecast is just a little higher at 72-96h than the last forecast, and is now below the long-range model consensus. Dexter's extratropical disposition should be considered fairly uncertain at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 34.6N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 36.8N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 37.8N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 38.6N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 39.1N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/0600Z 39.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 41.5N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 095 FONT14 KNHC 040842 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 271 WTNT24 KNHC 040841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 68.3W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 68.3W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.5N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.8N 64.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 37.8N 62.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.6N 61.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.1N 58.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.5N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 41.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 68.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 272 WTNT34 KNHC 040841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...DEXTER FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST AND STAY NORTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 68.3W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 68.3 West. Dexter is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected through early Tuesday, followed by a slower motion Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Dexter is likely to become post-tropical by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...DEXTER FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST AND STAY NORTH OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 04 the center of Dexter was located near 34.6, -68.3 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more