Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently-downgraded Tropical Storm Gil, located well
west-southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or so. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and
a tropical depression could form late next week as the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern Oregon during the afternoon. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally favorable environment for supercells is expected during the afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of 35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary) would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer. These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities. ...Central High Plains... A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the strongest storms isolated. ...Oregon... Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm cores. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more