National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 262037 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 3 35(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 140W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 38(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) X(24) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 262036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 644 WTPZ43 KNHC 262036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Hector's cloud pattern has not become better organized since earlier today. Most of the deep convection is over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Microwave imagery suggested some southeastward tilt of the vortex center with height. Upper-level outflow is limited and mainly occurring over the southern portion of the system. Subjective Dvorak satellite classifications from both TAFB and SAB are T3.0 corresponding to an intensity of 45 kt, so the advisory intensity remains unchanged at that value. Hector has been moving west-northwestward with an initial motion estimate of 285/9 kt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to strengthen slightly during the next few days. This should result in a west-northwestward to westward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed during the forecast period. By the end of the period, Hector should be a shallow system and be steered mainly by the low-level easterly flow. The official track forecast is basically an extension of the previous one, and remains close to the model consensus aids. Dynamical guidance indicates that weak-to-moderate vertical wind shear is likely over Hector during the next few days which could allow some strengthening. However, the system is expected to continue moving near or over the cool wake of Hurricane Gilma and drier air should be affecting the circulation within the next couple of days. Therefore only a slight short-term increase in strength is forecast, with the official forecast being on the high side of the model guidance. Given the expectation of increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions later in the forecast period, the official forecast shows Hector becoming a remnant low in 5 days. However the global models suggest that the system may degenerate even sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 16.9N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 17.3N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 17.6N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 17.7N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 17.7N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 17.7N 138.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 17.6N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 642 WTPZ22 KNHC 262036 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 137.4W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 137.4W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 136.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.9N 143.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.9N 147.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 149.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.2N 154.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 22.8N 158.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 137.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

...GILMA RE-STRENGTHENS... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Gilma was located near 18.4, -137.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 643 WTPZ32 KNHC 262036 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...GILMA RE-STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 137.4W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 137.4 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days with some increase in forward speed by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight, with a more steady rate of weakening expected on Tuesday. Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 262036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 125.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.3N 129.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.6N 131.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.7N 133.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.7N 136.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 17.6N 144.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 125.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 262036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...HECTOR MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 125.8W ABOUT 1125 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 125.8 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HECTOR MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Hector was located near 16.5, -125.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands and on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:00:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:29:14 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 261459 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Gilma still has a well-defined eye, seen on GOES-18 infrared and proxy-vis satellite imagery. The latest subjective intensity estimates are T-4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T-5.0/90 kt from SAB. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS such as the ADT and DPRINT are in the 80 to 85 kt range. However, during the last couple of hours, the eye has warmed and the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, so the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, in best agreement with the SAB Dvorak intensity estimate. Gilma is likely currently experiencing 10 to 15 kt of westerly wind shear as it continues moving near and parallel to the 26C SST isotherm. Fluctuations in intensity appear possible for the next 12 h. Beyond 12 to 18 h, the westerly shear is forecast to increase to the 15 to 20 kt range, and the SSTs are forecast to decrease slightly along the path beyond 36 h. These factors, along with the relatively dry, stable environmental air mass that Gilma will be traversing for the remainder of its lifetime, are expected to lead to continued steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous official forecast at hour 12, and then is similar to the previous official forecast. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt as it continues moving along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge. The models continue to be in good cross-track agreement that the west to west-northwestward motion will continue, although there are still some along-track differences in the guidance. The new NHC forecast lies very close to, but perhaps a touch to the south of the previous official forecast. This forecast is close to the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 18.2N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.3N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 141.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.5N 146.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.9N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 20.8N 152.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 21.8N 156.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 261454 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 1 26(27) 8(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 140W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 18(51) 1(52) X(52) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 261454 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...GILMA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 136.5W ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 136.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days with some increase in forward speed by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is forecast during the next few days, Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...GILMA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Gilma was located near 18.2, -136.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 261453 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 136.5W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 136.5W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 136.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 137.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 141.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 148.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 152.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.8N 156.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:39:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:35:20 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Microwave imagery continues to show evidence of northerly shear over the cyclone, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the south of the surface center. However, the overall cloud pattern appears to be slightly better organized than it was yesterday with some evidence of banding features over the eastern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity has been increased a bit, to 45 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB. Center fixes from geostationary and microwave imagery give a westward motion at around 270/9 kt. A weak low- to mid-level ridge is currently situated to the north of Hector, and the global models suggest that the ridge will build a little in a few days. The track guidance calls for a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slight increase in forward speed for the next 3-5 days. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the dynamical model consensus predictions. Although the vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong, Hector is expected to traverse marginal SSTs for the next few days while it moves over or near the oceanic wake of Hurricane Gilma. Also, the global models show the system encountering increasingly dry air at low- to mid-levels. The intensity guidance does not call for much additional strengthening and the official forecast is at the high end of the model predictions. With the expected less favorable environment, a weakening trend is likely to begin in a couple of days. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models show little or no deep convection associated with Hector by the end of the forecast period, so the official forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.2N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.1N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.4N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.6N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 17.7N 137.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.5N 142.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 261437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...HECTOR A BIT STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 124.9W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 124.9 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch