National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPS WELL OUT AT SEA... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Hector was located near 15.9, -122.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about midway between the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
well away from land over the central portion of the basin.
Environmental winds are forecast to become a little more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next day or two while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:46:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:28:55 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251445 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Over the last 6 hours, Gilma's eye has continued to be present on most of the infrared and proxy vis images. However, the eye has become a bit more cloud-filled, and the convection over the southwestern eyewall is slightly less robust. Although the CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are still T-6.0/115 kt, the respective Final T numbers are lower than that. Recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates range from 84 to 113 kt. Based on a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged down slightly to 110 kt for this advisory. Gilma is currently moving very near the 26C isotherm and is located in an environment of low vertical wind shear. The middle troposphere is fairly dry in the environment surrounding Gilma, but the cyclone has been able to prevent the dry air from entraining into the center enough to significantly disrupt the hurricane. The environmental conditions are not forecast to become more conducive for strengthening. Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase slightly by late tonight or early Monday. SSTs should decrease slightly along the path of Gilma by late Monday or Monday night. Based on these factors, only slow weakening is forecast for the next 24 h followed by more steady weakening after that. The confidence in the intensity forecast seems slightly below average in the short-term while Gilma straddles the 26C SST isotherm and remains in relatively low shear. In the 24 to 96 h time frame, Gilma should be weakening, but the rate at which it weakens is a bit uncertain. By day 4, vertical wind shear increases to moderate to strong, making it likely that Gilma should be significantly weaker in the 4- to 5-day time frame. Gilma is forecast to lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, perhaps showing a slightly slower rate of weakening in the 36-72 h period, closer to the latest intensity consensus guidance. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. A strengthening mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge situated to the north of the hurricane should steer Gilma on a westward to west-northwestward track through the forecast period. The official forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the TVCE and GFEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.0N 133.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.0N 147.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.6N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 653 FOPZ12 KNHC 251444 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 11 11(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 38(66) 5(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 15(48) X(48) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 251444 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 133.5W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 133.5W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 147.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.6N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 251444 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...GILMA STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 133.5W ABOUT 1560 MI...2515 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1415 MI...2280 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 133.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some intensity fluctuations are possible through today. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected although Gilma should remain a hurricane through early Tuesday. Steady weakening is forecast to continue through the end of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...GILMA STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.0, -133.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about midway between the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
well away from land over the central portion of the basin.
Environmental winds are forecast to become a little more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next couple of days while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 08:34:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 09:29:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250832 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 After a brief period of rapid strengthening earlier this evening, Gilma's intensity has leveled off. Conventional GOES-18 satellite imagery shows that the deep inner core convection has eroded considerably in the western half of the cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 115 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and various UW-CIMSS objective techniques. Although the current intensity is higher than noted in the previous advisory, Gilma likely peaked a few hours ago based on earlier ADT intensity estimates of 115-119 kt and the 0000 UTC constrained Data-T 6.5 subjective estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Although Gilma's period of rapid intensification has likely ended, some intensity fluctuations, common in major hurricanes, are possible in the short term, and the official forecast indicates little intensity change through Sunday. Afterward, the cyclone is expected to traverse cooler oceanic surface temperatures and move into a thermodynamically inhibiting dry and stable marine layer by the middle-part of the forecast. Early next week, the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows an increase in west-southwesterly shear spreading east of the Big Island of Hawaii. These negative intensity contributions should result in a weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward slightly from the previous one and is based on a blend of the Decay SHIPS statistical aid and the IVCN consensus model. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. A strengthening mid-troposphere subtropical ridge situated to the north of the hurricane should steer Gilma on a generally west-northwest or west track through day 5. The official track forecast is a little bit slower than the previous advisory beyond day 3 and is a compromise of the HCCA and TVCE consensus guidance. Gilma's wind radii have been adjusted based on a 0530 UTC METOP-B ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 18.0N 132.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 133.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.3N 135.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 137.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 18.7N 139.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 19.2N 142.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.0N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.6N 150.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250832 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 8 43(51) 4(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 135W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 43(54) 19(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 19(37) X(37) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250831 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 ...GILMA'S BRIEF RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS LEVELED OFF... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 132.5W ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 132.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward or westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some intensity fluctuations are possible through Sunday. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected although Gilma should remain a hurricane through early next week. Steady weakening is forecast to continue through the end of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GILMA'S BRIEF RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS LEVELED OFF... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Aug 24 the center of Gilma was located near 18.0, -132.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250831 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 132.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 132.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 132.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 133.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 135.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 137.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.7N 139.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 142.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 146.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.6N 150.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 132.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250631
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about midway between the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the
south-southwest of an area of low pressure located well away from
land over the central portion of the basin. Environmental winds
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of
days while the system moves toward the west-northwest at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250525
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about midway between the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the
south-southwest of an area of low pressure located well away from
land over the central portion of the basin. Environmental winds
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of
days while the system moves toward the west-northwest at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 02:35:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 03:29:28 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250233 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma continues to defy the odds and intensify. The satellite depiction over the last several hours has been one of a well-organized strengthening hurricane. The eyewall is tightly wrapped producing deep convection with lightning depicted in the northern eyewall on GLM satellite imagery. Visible imagery shows that the eye has become circular, well-defined, and has been clearing out. Subjective Dvorak estimates have increased but were constrained to T6.0/115 kt from both SAB and TAFB, with both agencies reporting higher data-T values. Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these estimates the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt for this advisory. Therefore, Gilma's strengthening has met the definition of rapid intensification as the system has strengthened 30 kt in 12 h. The initial motion remains 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane continues to gradually build and strengthen. This should steer Gilma on a generally westward track through the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement, although there continues to be some forward speed differences, particularly towards the end of the period. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. Gilma has managed to rapidly intensify over marginally warm sea surface temperatures, and has established a well-defined inner core within a very low wind shear environment. The system's slightly increasing forward speed may have also allowed it to avoid some of the negative impacts from upwelling. Given the higher initial intensity there are some changes in the near-term intensity forecast, with Gilma maintaining hurricane strength longer than previously forecast. As Gilma moves into cooler SSTs and a little more wind shear, this will cause a gradual weakening trend to ensue. Beyond 24 h the system will begin to move into a drier and more stable airmass which should increase the rate of weakening as wind shear further increases by days 3-4. Global models show Gilma starting to struggle to produce convection around day 5, with the NHC forecast depicting Gilma as a remnant low at that time. The NHC forecast is above most of the intensity guidance in the near term given the higher initial intensity, but is near the simple consensus intensity aids as the system begins to weaken. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.8N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 20.3N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250233 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 3 36(39) 10(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 135W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 29(67) X(67) X(67) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 25(40) 1(41) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER KELLY