National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250233 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 ...GILMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 131.8W ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1530 MI...2460 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 131.8 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur through tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane into early next week. Steady weakening will then continue through the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GILMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Aug 24 the center of Gilma was located near 17.8, -131.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250233 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 131.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 131.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 131.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 150.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 131.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 00:02:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 00:02:51 GMT

Issued at 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 525 WTPZ42 KNHC 250001 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Special Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma has continued to exhibit a solid inner core on infrared imagery this afternoon. The eye has become more defined on visible satellite imagery and has started to clear out. Recent microwave imagery further confirmed that the structure of Gilma has improved with a vertically aligned center and a well-established eye wall. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to rise with objective estimates now between 100-110 kt. Thus, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt for this special advisory, and Gilma has regained major hurricane strength as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. The initial motion remains 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to gradually build to the north of Gilma during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone on a generally westward, or just north of westward, track through the forecast period. The NHC track has not changed with this special advisory forecast. The intensity forecast has had some significant changes compared to the previous advisory in the short term, given the initial intensity being increased, and the new NHC forecast calls for some additional strengthening in the near term. Beyond 12 h gradual then steady weakening is forecast to occur as Gilma moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a drier more stable airmass. The system is still forecast to become a remnant low in 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0000Z 17.7N 131.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0000 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 866 FOPZ12 KNHC 242359 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0000 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 2 22(24) 26(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 36(52) 1(53) X(53) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 1(28) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 864 WTPZ32 KNHC 242359 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Special Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 ...GILMA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 131.4W ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 131.4 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur through tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through the remainder of the weekend. Steady weakening is anticipated early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GILMA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... As of 2:00 PM HST Sat Aug 24 the center of Gilma was located near 17.7, -131.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0000 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 647 WTPZ22 KNHC 242358 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0000 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 131.4W AT 25/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 131.4W AT 25/0000Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 131.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about midway between the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the southwest
of an area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental winds
are forecast to become more conducive for development of the low
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to
form this weekend or early next week while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 20:40:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 21:29:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 242036 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma has become better organized during the past few hours, with the eye becoming more distinct and the eyewall convection becoming colder and more symmetric. In response, the various satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 90-105 kt range. Based on that, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt, and this might be conservative. This intensification could be due to the center passing near a tongue of warmer sea surface temperatures. The initial motion remains 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to gradually build to the north of Gilma during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone on a generally westward, or just north of westward, track through the forecast period. The track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and while there is some spread in the forward speed it is tightly clustered in direction. The new forecast track therefore has little change from the previous forecast. In contrast to the track forecast, the intensity forecast and guidance have significant changes. First, it is uncertain how long the current re-intensification will last. The bulk of the intensity guidance shows little additional strengthening, but given that the organization is still increasing some additional strengthening is possible in the next 6-12 h. Second, there have been some changes to the guidance in the 3-5 day period. The regional hurricane models are forecasting lower intensities than they did 6 h ago, with only the HAFS-A still keeping Gilma a tropical storm at 120 h. On the other hand, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS/ECMWF suggests that the cyclone will continue to develop organized convection for a longer time than the previous model runs were forecasting. Putting all of these changes together, the new intensity forecast calls for a stronger Gilma during the first 60 h, and now calls for the cyclone to retain tropical storm status through 96 h. By 120 h, westerly shear and dry air entrainment should cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.7N 130.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 242036 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 2 20(22) 24(46) 3(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 36(52) 1(53) X(53) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 242035 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 ...GILMA RE-INTENSIFIES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 130.9W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 130.9 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening could occur during the next several hours. Weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through the remainder of the weekend. Steady weakening is anticipated early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...GILMA RE-INTENSIFIES... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Aug 24 the center of Gilma was located near 17.7, -130.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 242035 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 175SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 130.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the south
and west of an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for development of the low during the next day or two, and a
tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or early next
week while moving toward the west or west-northwest at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 14:36:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 15:29:17 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241431 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma continues to show a well-defined, but somewhat asymmetric, central dense overcast in satellite imagery. AMSR microwave data near 1000 UTC showed an eye and eyewall are still present under the overcast, and the eye makes occasional attempts to appear in infrared imagery. The various subjective and objective intensity estimates currently have a wide range from 65-90 kt. However, the overall trend of these estimates is down, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 80 kt. The initial motion is 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to gradually build to the north of Gilma during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone on a generally westward, or just north of westward, track through the forecast period. The guidance has shifted south since the last advisory, continuing a trend that started yesterday. Based on this guidance, the new forecast track is also adjusted a little south of the previous track. Gilma is expected to remain over sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 26C for the next day or two, and since it is in a light shear environment, only slow weakening is expected during this time. After that time, increasing westerly shear and dry air entrainment is likely to lead to significant weakening, even though the SSTs along the forecast track remain near 25-26C. While this is the most likely scenario, some differences have developed in the intensity guidance. The global models and the HMON regional model generally show Gilma degenerating to a post tropical cyclone by 96 h and to a remnant low by 120 h. On the other hand, the latest HWRF, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B runs show the cyclone remaining a convection producing tropical storm through the end of the forecast period. Given the forecast shear and dry air, these forecasts look too strong, and the new intensity forecast will follow the global model solutions of a faster decay. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.6N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.7N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z 20.0N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 241431 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 135W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 135W 34 2 8(10) 30(40) 8(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 33(41) 2(43) X(43) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN