National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220836 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 ...GILMA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 124.2W ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 124.2 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, and Gilma is likely to remain a powerful hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...GILMA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Gilma was located near 16.6, -124.2 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220836 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 110SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.2N 126.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 127.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.8N 129.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.3N 132.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 136.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about one thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually increased tonight in
association with an area of low pressure located well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands. A slight improvement in organization could
result in the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm
on Thursday while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This
system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin early
Thursday morning, where it is then forecast to strengthen during the
next couple of days and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central portion of the
East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 02:34:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 03:22:59 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220232 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Infrared and visible satellite imagery of Gilma this evening continues to depict a strong inner core with a well-defined eye. Deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80C have been persistent in the southern eye wall. Over the last hour or so the northern portion of the inner core has become a little more broken in infrared imagery, which suggests the rapid intensification has stopped. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates for this cycle remained unchanged from TAFB and SAB, both T5.0/90-kt. The objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 90 to 100 kt. Using a blend of theses estimates, Gilma's initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Gilma is moving slowly west-northwestward with an estimated motion of 290/6 kt. A large subtropical ridge will continue to steer Gilma generally westward to west-northwestward during the next few days, with a gradual acceleration by the weekend. The latest NHC track is slightly to the right of the previous forecast, and lies between the previous forecast and the latest consensus aids. Gilma is expected to continue to strengthen over the next day or so as the system moves over warm sea surface temperature with low vertical wind shear. The main change this cycle is that the peak and entire forecast period intensity guidance is much lower compared to 6 hours ago. The NHC peak intensity forecast is slightly lower than previous but still shows steady strengthening over the next 24h. However, the system should then begin to traverse cooler waters and a drier more stable airmass, with a faster weakening trend compared to the previous advisory. Note that the NHC intensity forecast is above most of the intensity guidance, primarily due to continuity constraints, and additional changes in the intensity forecast may be needed in subsequent forecasts if intensity aid trends continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 16.5N 123.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.8N 124.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 17.3N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 17.5N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 17.8N 130.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 18.0N 132.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220231 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 34 6(40) 2(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 125W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 8(23) 2(25) X(25) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 26(46) 2(48) X(48) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 39(54) 3(57) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220231 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 123.8W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 110SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 123.8W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 124.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.3N 127.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.5N 128.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.8N 130.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 132.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 135.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220231 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 ...GILMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 123.8W ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 123.8 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph, and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Gilma is expected to become a major hurricane overnight or on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GILMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Gilma was located near 16.5, -123.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization
today in association with an area of low pressure located well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. However, only a slight
improvement in organization could result in the formation of a
tropical depression or tropical storm later tonight or early
Thursday while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This
system is expected to strengthen as it moves into the central
Pacific basin on Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late
this weekend or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure centered several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the
next two to three days while the system moves west-northwestward
into the central portion of the East Pacific, well offshore of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 20:41:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 21:24:02 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 212039 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Gilma's satellite presentation has improved significantly over the past three hours as a clear eye has appeared in visible imagery, and the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T5.0/90-kt. Using these estimates Gilma's initial intensity is set to 90 kt for this advisory, which represents an increase of 30-kt over the past 24 hours, meeting the criteria of rapid intensification. Gilma is moving more west-northwestward this afternoon, estimated at 285/6 kt. Over the next few days, a large subtropical ridge poleward of the hurricane should continue to steer it generally westward to west-northwestward. The latest track guidance has shifted slightly poleward, reversing the trend of the previous few cycles, possibly due to the more northern short-term motion as the hurricane's inner-core has become established. The latest NHC track was shifted slightly in that direction of the consensus track aids, blending them with the prior track forecast. Given the improvements to the inner core, Gilma is expected to steadily strengthen over the next day. The NHC intensity forecast now shows strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane in 24 h, which is in agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid and still slightly below some of the hurricane-regional models (e.g. HAFS-A and HAFS-B). After 48 h, sea-surface temperatures begin to gradually decrease, and slow weakening is still expected to begin at that time, though a little less than the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 16.3N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.6N 124.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 17.1N 126.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 17.6N 129.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 17.7N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 18.0N 134.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 138.6W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Alaka/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 212038 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 34 16(50) 3(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 125W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 13(22) 4(26) X(26) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 32(44) 4(48) 1(49) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) 9(53) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ALAKA/PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 212038 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 110SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.6N 124.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.1N 126.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 129.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 134.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 138.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ALAKA/PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 212038 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 ...GILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 123.2W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 123.2 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next day, and Gilma could become a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Alaka/Papin

...GILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Gilma was located near 16.3, -123.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since
last night in association with a well-defined area of low pressure
located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. However, only
a slight improvement in organization could result in the formation
of a tropical depression or tropical storm later today while it
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This system is expected
to strengthen as it moves into the central Pacific basin tonight or
on Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend
or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure centered several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the
next two to three days while the system moves west-northwestward
into the central portion of the East Pacific, well offshore of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Alaka/Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 14:45:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 15:22:58 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 211443 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 This morning, Gilma's structure on satellite has continued to improve, with infrared satellite depicting a banding type eye appearing intermittently as convection attempts to wrap around the estimated center. In addition, we received a 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass which showed a developing eyewall on both the 89-GHz and 37-GHz channels, though with some vertical tilt. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T4.5/77-kt, which also matches the latest ADT estimate. Thus, Gilma's initial intensity will be raised to 75 kt for this advisory. Gilma appears to be moving just north of due west, but slower than earlier, estimated at 280/6 kt. Over the next few days, a large subtropical ridge poleward of the hurricane should continue to steer it generally westward to west-northwestward. However, this ridge becomes positioned a little farther northwest with time as a subtle weakness north of the storm forms, resulting in a slower-than-typical forward motion for this part of the Eastern Pacific basin. The latest track guidance this cycle is notably slower and more equatorward than the previous cycle, and the NHC track was shifted in that direction, but not quite as far as the reliable track consensus guidance TVCE and HCCA. As mentioned in the previous discussion, if these southward trends continue, further southward adjustments may be necessary. With the improvement of Gilma's inner core structure this morning, the hurricane may be poised to intensify more over the next day or two. This scenario is shown by the recent hurricane-regional model guidance, which shows more intensification than the prior cycle. Given the reduction in vertical wind shear noted in the recent SHIPS guidance and as Gilma remains over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures for the next 48 h, the NHC intensity forecast now shows intensification into a Category 3 hurricane over this time period. This intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is in good agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid. However there remain some hurricane-regional models that show even more intensification (e.g., HAFS-A). After 48 h, sea-surface temperatures begin to gradually decrease, and slow weakening is expected to begin thereafter, though less than the previous advisory due to the further south track over warmer ocean waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.0N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 16.2N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.8N 125.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.9N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 17.1N 128.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 17.3N 130.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Alaka