National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 182102 CCA TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 Correct depression to Gilma in the motion section ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 112.3W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 112.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Gilma is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 18 the center of Gilma was located near 14.7, -112.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 20:44:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 21:29:12 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 182042 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 Despite continued moderate easterly vertical wind shear, deep convection has been expanding and has now built over the center of the system. Accordingly, the Dvorak estimates have nudged upward and are now between 30 and 35 kt. Based on those classifications and the improving convective pattern, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Gilma. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt is expected to continue during the next day or so, which should limit the amount of strengthening in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen some after that, and the somewhat more favorable upper-level wind environment combined with warm waters and a relatively moist atmosphere should allow for gradual strengthening throughout much of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and roughly between the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Gilma is moving west-northwestward, or 285 degrees, at 12 kt. A high pressure ridge situated to the system’s north should cause the storm to move westward to west-northwestward at about the same speed during the next couple of days. Later in the week, the models show the ridge weakening as a trough amplifies off the west coast of the U.S., which should cause the system to slow down and turn a bit to the right. There is quite a bit of along-track spread in the models, with the GFS being the slowest model and HWRF/HAFS the fastest. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one through 60 h and then is a little to the north of the prior track after that. This forecast is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.7N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 15.6N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 15.9N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.2N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 16.6N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 16.9N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 17.7N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 18.6N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 182041 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 13 29(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 115W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 11(38) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 182041 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 112.3W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 112.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. The depression is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GILMA... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 18 the center of Gilma was located near 14.7, -112.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 182041 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.6N 116.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 118.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 119.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 121.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.9N 122.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.7N 125.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.6N 127.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Seven-E, located well south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms on
its western side. This disturbance is forecast to interact with the
disturbance located to its east. If this system becomes the dominant
disturbance, some gradual development is possible, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle part of the week while it
initially moves slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific.
A faster west-northwestward motion into the Central Pacific basin is
likely by the latter portion of the week. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days, which could limit additional development if
this system does not become the dominant disturbance. Regardless, a
tropical depression could still form during the middle part of the
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward before it
possibly merges with the disturbance currently located further west.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Yet another area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward into the central portion of the East Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 14:35:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 15:29:14 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 181433 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 The low pressure system well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has now developed a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection. These criteria indicate a new tropical depression has formed, the seventh one of the 2024 East Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a Dvorak 2.0 classification from TAFB. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is confining most of the thunderstorm activity to the western half of the circulation, and since the shear is expected to persist through tonight, only a little strengthening seems likely in the short-term. The shear should lessen beginning early Monday, and the more favorable upper-level wind environment combined with warm waters and a relatively moist atmosphere should allow for gradual strengthening throughout much of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HCCA guidance. The initial motion is uncertain since the system has just formed, but the best estimate is 290/11 kt. A high pressure ridge situated to the system’s north should cause the cyclone to move westward to west-northwestward at about the same speed during the next few days. Later in the week, the models show the ridge weakening as a trough amplifies off the west coast of the U.S., which could cause the system to slow down. The models are in fair agreement with the exception of the GFS, which shows a much slower motion likely due to the interaction with a disturbance to its west. At this point, that model seems unrealistic so it is being discounted for now. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.0N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.4N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 15.8N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.0N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 16.2N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 16.5N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 17.1N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 17.9N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 181433 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 17(17) 14(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Aug 18 the center of Seven-E was located near 14.6, -110.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 334 WTPZ32 KNHC 181432 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 110.7W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 110.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. The depression is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system could become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 181432 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 110.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 110.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.4N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 118.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 121.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.1N 124.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 126.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181148
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms
that continue to show signs of organization. Recently-received
microwave satellite imagery also suggests the system is developing a
well-defined center, and if these trends continue, a tropical
depression is likely to form as soon as later today. The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is forecast to
interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest over the
next several days, which could limit additional development if this
system does not become the dominant disturbance. Regardless, a
tropical depression could still form during the middle part of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the
western portion of the East Pacific basin before it possibly merges
with the disturbance currently located further west. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is currently associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms on its western side. This disturbance is forecast to
interact with the disturbance located to its east. If this system
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of
this week while it initially moves slowly over the western portion
of the East Pacific. A faster west-northwestward motion into the
Central Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Yet another area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next few days. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for some slow development of
this system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward
throughout the week into the Central portion of the East Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180544
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms
that are becoming better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. While this system may
interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest over the
next several days, some gradual development is forecast assuming it
becomes the dominant disturbance. A tropical depression is likely
to form during the middle part of next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin
and into the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible early
next week while it moves slowly over the western portion of the East
Pacific or in the Central Pacific basin. By the middle of next week,
this disturbance could merge with an area of low pressure developing
to its east. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to show signs of
organization. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for additional development of this system through the
weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15
mph across the central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to
its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual
development of this system is forecasted if it becomes the dominant
disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle
part of next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system
developing to its east. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a distinct area of
showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for
additional development of this system through the weekend, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad trough of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to
its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual
development of this system is forecasted if it remains the dominant
disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle
part of next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system
developing to its east. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that are beginning to show signs of organization.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for
additional development of this system over the weekend, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while it
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend or
early next week more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Thereafter, slow
development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical depression
is likely form during the middle part of next week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the western portion of the
basin and into the Central Pacific basin. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system expected
to develop to its east. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin