National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072035 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.7W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.7W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.9N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 20:35:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 21:37:47 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072033 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 This afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Fabio has succumbed to the increasingly harsh surrounding environment. Only a poorly defined surface circulation of low cloud elements is what remains of the tropical cyclone. Therefore, Fabio no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory. The post-tropical cyclone's initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, based on the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates. Further weakening is forecast in the short term before merging with Emilia on Thursday. Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be southwestward or 225/14 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, while it moves around the western periphery of Emilia's circulation and eventually merges with Emilia on Thursday, or sooner. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN03 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.4N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072032 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...FABIO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 120.2W ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 120.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN03 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Roberts

...FABIO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Fabio was located near 18.4, -120.2 with movement SW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072031 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 120.2W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 120.2W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 120.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Fabio, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 889 WTPZ41 KNHC 071440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Fabio is barely a tropical cyclone this morning. Water vapor imagery shows dry air wrapping into the circulation from the west, and vertical wind shear associated with nearby Tropical Storm Emilia continues to disrupt the convective organization of Fabio. Currently, the storm is only producing small bursts of sheared convection over 100 n mi to the northeast of its exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt. Passive microwave and proxy-visible satellite images indicate Fabio is now moving south of due west (265/18 kt). This general motion should continue through tonight while Fabio interacts with the outer circulation of Emilia. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one based on recent motion trends. Given the hostile environmental conditions described above, Fabio appears unlikely to become better organized in the short term. The NHC forecast shows Fabio becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 12 h before merging with Emilia on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 20.1N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 14:41:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 15:34:50 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 852 FOPZ11 KNHC 071439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...SHEARED FABIO EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH EMILIA ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 119.6W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 119.6 West. Fabio is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A quick westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is forecast until Fabio merges with Tropical Storm Emilia on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...SHEARED FABIO EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH EMILIA ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Fabio was located near 20.1, -119.6 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 709 WTPZ21 KNHC 071438 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 14:37:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 15:29:06 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 085 WTPZ45 KNHC 071435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this morning. The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone. The satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt, respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt. Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive. Therefore, weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning. By the 48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high. Toward the end of the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up into a trough around day 5. Only slight along-track adjustments were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 173 FOPZ15 KNHC 071435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 38 49(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 120W 50 2 49(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 120W 64 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 505 WTPZ35 KNHC 071435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 117.0W ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 117.0 West. Emilia is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to commence overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Emilia was located near 17.6, -117.0 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 663 WTPZ25 KNHC 071434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 117.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 117.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS