National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 030 WTPZ31 KNHC 060845 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 ...FABIO A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 110.8W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 110.8 West. Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...FABIO A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM MST Tue Aug 6 the center of Fabio was located near 16.9, -110.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 191 WTPZ21 KNHC 060845 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.6N 119.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, and on Tropical Storm Fabio, all located well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Central Pacific
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Carlotta, and the National Hurricane Center has issued the
last advisory on the remnants of Daniel.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fabio are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fabio are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060253 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Daniel Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Earlier today, GOES Proxy-Vis satellite imagery and microwave overpasses had indicated that Daniel's surface circulation center had become less defined, and this afternoon's scatterometer pass showed a poorly defined surface swirl and possibly open in the north quadrant. Since that time, the satellite presentation shows that the cyclone has opened up into a trough while embedded within the persistent southwesterly monsoonal flow. Accordingly, this is the last NHC Advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:53:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:34:47 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060253 PWSEP4 REMNANTS OF DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF DANIEL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060252 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Daniel Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DANIEL DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 126.0W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Daniel were located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 126.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue overnight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...DANIEL DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Daniel was located near 16.7, -126.0 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060251 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 126.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:48:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:40:45 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060246 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Earlier ASCAT data showed that Emilia was likely a 45 kt tropical storm around 18Z, with an exposed low-level center located just outside of and to the northeast of the convective overcast area, due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since that time, the low-level center appears to have moved toward the edge of the convective mass. However infrared satellite imagery shows that some of the cloud tops in the convective area have warmed slightly during that time. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from SAB. Recent objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 34 to 42 kt. Based on all the data and satellite imagery, the 45 kt intensity is unchanged from the previous NHC advisory. The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will be the survivor in its interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the merger is forecast to happen on Wednesday or Wednesday night. In the short term, moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over Emilia. Due to the moderate shear, only modest strengthening is forecast, and no change is made to the previous NHC peak intensity forecast of 55 kt. After Emilia absorbs Fabio in about 48 h, Emilia is forecast to move over less than 26C SSTs, which should cause weakening. Emilia is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength by day 4, and will continue to spin down after that as it moves over progressively colder water. Confidence in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around. Emilia is currently moving very slowly toward the west-southwest. A turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Tuesday, and Emilia is expected to absorb Fabio on Wednesday. After Fabio dissipates in about 48 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general motion expected for the remainder of the forecast period. Only very minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.8N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.0N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.5N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 17.5N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 19.2N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 20.2N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 21.0N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 22.4N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060244 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 115W 34 32 55(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 115W 50 1 43(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 115W 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 16(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060244 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 114.3W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 114.3 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at a faster forward speed on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Emilia was located near 13.8, -114.3 with movement WSW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060243 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 150SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 119.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.2N 122.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 129.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:43:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:46:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:43:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 03:29:06 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Fabio has become better organized today with a larger area of deep convection becoming more persistent. Based on microwave data from the past 6 h, the center of Fabio appears to be located underneath the northern portion of the convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, while the latest objective intensity estimates range from 37 kt to 55 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory, but that could be a bit conservative. The initial motion is now 300/16 kt. Fabio's motion should be dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move west-northwestward at a similar forward speed around the north side of Emilia for the next 36 h or so. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Some strengthening could occur in the next 12 h or so. After that, no additional strengthening is expected as Fabio moves closer to Emilia. This forecast assumes that Fabio will be absorbed by Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night. Confidence in this forecast scenario is increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that Emilia will absorb Fabio. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.3N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060242 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 9 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 1 63(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ISLA CLARION 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS