National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 17 Sep 2025 20:16:51 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite derived winds depict that the
low is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this broad system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario, located several hundred miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this broad system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 02:34:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 03:21:22 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 452 FOPZ13 KNHC 170233 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 02:34:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2025 02:34:55 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 059 WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Mario has not produced any deep convection for more than 12 hours. The system is now over sea-surface temperatures of 23C and southwesterly wind shear is increasing. All guidance is in good agreement that the remnant low of Mario will continue to weaken and dissipate on Thursday. The remnant low of Mario is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue, with a slight decrease in forward speed until dissipation, as Mario is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the northeast, or right, of the previous forecast, closer to most of the latest consensus models. While the remnant low of Mario is forecast to dissipate well to the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash flooding will be possible by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 23.7, -118.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 264 WTPZ33 KNHC 170233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 118.3W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 118.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed over the next day. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants of Mario will continue to weaken, with dissipation expected by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 753 WTPZ23 KNHC 170233 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 118.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 118.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 118.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER HAGEN NNNN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162307
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located several hundred miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico have become more concentrated over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 20:33:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 21:21:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 20:33:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 20:33:07 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Deep convection around Mario has dissipated with an exposed center visible on satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass indicates Mario has weakened to a depression, and thus the initial intensity was lowered to 30 kt. Visible satellite imagery has allowed for a more precise initial position of Mario for this advisory, with the location continuing the trend of being a bit farther southwest than anticipated. As Mario continues to weaken and lose vertical structure, the expectation is that the shallow low-level circulation will slow down and feel less of an impact from the deep-layer southerly flow. This should result in the low-level circulation staying farther west and the mid-level remnants going northward. An initial westward adjustment was made to the track to account for the farther southwest initial position, otherwise minimal changes were made to the previous track. Mario will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and increasing shear. Given the lack of convection, the expectation is that Mario will become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. Thereafter, the low should dissipate into a trough by 36-48 h. While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash flooding will be possible by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.9N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 25.0N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 25.5N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 875 FOPZ13 KNHC 162031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 890 WTPZ33 KNHC 162031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 ...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 117.7W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 117.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed over the next day. Satellite-derived winds indicate maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Mario will continue to weaken and is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

...MOISTURE FROM MARIO COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of Mario was located near 23.0, -117.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 831 WTPZ23 KNHC 162031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.9N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.0N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 25.5N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE