National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 121444 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.9W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.9W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.5N 117.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 900 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...MINI MARIO FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 101.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Mario. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.9 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this evening. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Mario will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan today. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...MINI MARIO FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN... As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 17.2, -101.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:37:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 09:21:26 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Thirteen-E, located just offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:37:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 09:21:26 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:37:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 08:37:33 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120836 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 The depression remains poorly organized tonight, with only small areas of convection bursting to the west of the estimated low-level center. Recent scatterometer data and surface observations indicate the circulation remains very small. While believable scatterometer winds up to about 30 kt were noted offshore in the northern semicircle of the circulation, observations from the Acapulco International Airport indicated these winds did not reach the coast when the system made its closest approach earlier tonight. Since the overall satellite presentation has slightly worsened since the earlier scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward (295/10 kt), and the system should maintain this heading during the next couple of days while being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Later this weekend through early next week, the system is forecast to move toward the northwest as it rounds the southwestern portion of the steering ridge. The NHC track forecast through 60 h has been nudged slightly northward this cycle, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. In the near term, only modest strengthening is forecast due to the system's close proximity to land. Some models, including the GFS and ECMWF, completely lose the circulation later today. But if the system remains offshore and survives its close passage to the southwestern coast of Mexico, the environment should become somewhat more favorable for strengthening with weaker shear conditions over warm waters. Overall, the intensity guidance trended much lower this cycle. The updated NHC intensity forecast reflects this trend, but remains on the high end of the guidance envelope. Future downward adjustments may be necessary, and it cannot be ruled out that the system dissipates before the end of the 5-day forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will impact southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm today while moving parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. While the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, gusty winds are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Manzanillo during the next day or so. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.5N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 17.0N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.6N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.1N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 18.6N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.0N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.5N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 393 FOPZ13 KNHC 120835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 44(49) 3(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 5(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 120835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 300 AM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 100.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 100.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from west of Acapulco to Manzanillo during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 16.5, -100.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 120834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 100.8W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 100.8W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 100.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 102.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.6N 104.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.6N 108.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N 109.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.5N 110.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 100.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Thirteen-E, located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 02:46:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 03:22:14 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 02:46:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 02:46:58 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120245 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 900 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 The satellite appearance of Thirteen-E has improved some since the previous advisory, with deep convection continuing to burst over or near the estimated low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt and 2.0/30 kt. Meanwhile the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 28 to 35 kt since the previous advisory. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity has been held, perhaps conservatively, at 30 kt for this advisory package. The depression is moving to the west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 10 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and Texas. A turn toward the northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the weekend, as the system moves along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge, with that motion continuing through day 5. The official track forecast lies is very close to the previous advisory, roughly between the corrected consensus HCCA and AI-Driven GDMI track aids. The circulation of Thirteen-E remains very small, with an estimated radius of the outermost closed isobar only 80 n mi, and this may be generous. In the next couple of days, the global models suggest that moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, along with the proximity to land, should limit the system's ability to intensify significantly, and the intensity forecast only calls for some slow strengthening. Over the weekend, environmental conditions should become more favorable for intensification, as the system will be farther offshore, over very warm water and surrounded by moist mid-level air, while vertical wind shear will drop off to light levels and become aligned with the motion of the cyclone. This should lead to steady strengthening, with the system forecast to become a hurricane by 72 hours. By day 5, cooler sea surface temperatures and drier more stable environment should lead to a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope and closest to the AI-Driven GDMI intensity aid. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will impact southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight, while moving parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. While the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, gusty winds are possible along portions of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado through Manzanillo during the next day or so. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.0N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.5N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 17.6N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 18.0N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 18.9N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.7N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 304 WTPZ33 KNHC 120244 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 900 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 99.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 99.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Thirteen-E is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will lead to rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches, across southern and southwestern Mexico through Sunday. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Thirteen-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are possible over portions of the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado through Manzanillo during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Sep 11 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 16.0, -99.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 120244 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ACAPULCO 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 15(64) X(64) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 16(58) X(58) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 255 WTPZ23 KNHC 120242 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.6W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.6W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 99.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 101.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.6N 105.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.9N 109.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 99.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)