National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...KIKO QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 14.5, -137.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 492 WTPZ21 KNHC 052039 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 137.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 137.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 137.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.2N 145.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.2N 147.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.4N 149.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 153.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 65NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.7N 158.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 137.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin tonight or early Saturday morning.


Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop in the central
portion of the eastern Pacific well to the south of the Baja
California Peninsula during the early portion of next week. Some
slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves
generally westward over the open waters of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:00:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:21:31 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:00:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:00:19 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 14:39:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 14:39:52 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051446 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Corrected Key Message for Kiko The satellite presentation of Kiko continues to slowly deteriorate early this morning, with the eye obscured by high clouds emanating from the coldest convective tops in the southeast quadrant. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T6.0/115 kt and T5.0/90 kt. Objective estimates, including ADT from UW-CIMSS, are a bit on the lower end of the spread between 90-100 knots. The intensity has been set at 100 kts as a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates. Kiko has made the expected turn to the west-northwest, or 285 degrees, at 8 kt. The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is eroding by a developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast into early next week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of this subtropical ridge towards the upper-level low to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest track forecast early on is very similar to the previous forecast, before being adjusted somewhat to the north from Monday onward as increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear leads to convective asymmetry which could induce a jog to the right. The track forecast is closest to the HCCA consensus. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 18 hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear, although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level environment keeping the storm size smaller than average. Despite the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving through, the other factors still appear favorable for some slight intensification, so the latest intensity forecast still shows a little short-term strengthening. This forecast also fits in with the possibility for Kiko to develop annular characteristics which could keep it stronger than the forecast intensity guidance. Thereafter, Kiko will move over slightly cooler waters and an even drier mid-level environment. These less favorable conditions should begin a gradual weakening trend, in spite of the very light vertical wind shear. Waters below 26 C await Kiko's track after Monday, with west-southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing steadily to more than 30 kt by Wednesday, making it more likely the nearby dry air gets imported into Kiko's small core. The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. The official intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end of the intensity aids through 48 hours. The intensity forecast then trends closer to the middle of the intensity consensus envelope by Monday, and then trends lower as Kiko should convectively sputter while moving very close to the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain as a weakening tropical storm. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.2N 137.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roth/Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 051436 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 7 90(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 X 86(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 140W 64 X 66(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 35(41) 7(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 2(25) X(25) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 39(74) 1(75) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) X(39) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 53(70) X(70) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 ...KIKO NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 137.1W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Kiko. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 137.1 West. Kiko is now moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 48 hours followed by weakening by early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Kiko could begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roth/Papin

...KIKO NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 05 the center of Kiko was located near 14.2, -137.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051435 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 136.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 137.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 137.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 136.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 137.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/PAPIN NNNN

708
ABPZ20 KNHC 051150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin by tonight.

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena, located just off the west coast of
Baja California Sur.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop in the central
portion of the eastern Pacific well to the south of the Baja
California Peninsula by the early portion of next week. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves
generally westward over the open waters of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:26:27 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:21:20 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:17 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2025 09:01:15 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 050900 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Lorena has not produced organized convection near the center for the last 18 h, and since the center is located over sea surface temperatures between 24-25C there is little chance that convection will re-develop. While the latest scatterometer overpasses missed the center, satellite intensity estimates are quickly decreasing and are now in the 25-35 kt range. Based on this, Lorena has degenerated to a remnant low with winds near 30 kt. The system should continue to weaken over the cold water, with dissipation forecast by 72 h. Lorena has moved little since the last advisory. Track model guidance indicates that the remnant low should drift northward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest and then west-northwest. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little south of, the previous track. While Lorena is now a remnant low, the heavy rainfall threat continues. Abundant moisture continues to stream northeastward away from Lorena, and a surface trough seen in scatterometer data over the Gulf of California between Loreto and Guymas is triggering a large area of convection at this time. Significant rainfall and flash flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue across portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through today, and southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through tonight, which will result in areas of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across northwest Mexico. 2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday. 3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 24.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 050859 PWSEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 050859 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 115.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 115.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN