National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 17:42:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:27:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 17:42:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:27:22 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 041742 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 1100 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 114.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move generally parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and could move closer to the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula while it weakens on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of days, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low near or to the west of the Baja California peninsula by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected somewhere within the warning area in Baja California Sur today through Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... As of 11:00 AM MST Thu Sep 04 the center of Lorena was located near 24.4, -114.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:27:22 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041707
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin Friday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin just off
the west coast of Baja California Sur.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 16:38:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 16:38:08 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:27:22 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:22:13 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 15:00:35 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 727 WTPZ41 KNHC 041458 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko continues with a weaker depiction compared to yesterday evening, but beginning to see some stabilization in the core with a little more convective wrap within the southern flank of the eyewall. IR satellite and accompanying Dvorak imagery indicates a likely eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) occurring over the past 12 hours, leading to the marginal degradation of the storms presentation. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were each 6.0/115 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 108 and 127 kt during the past several hours. Based on the latest data from both the subjective and objective analysis, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 115 kt for this advisory, however Kiko still remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane. With Kiko's EWRC anticipated to be completed later today, the expectation is for Kiko's inner-core to stabilize. Given the favorable environment that the cyclone is traversing, the latest intensity forecast shows the hurricane re-intensifying after the EWRC completes in the short-term. Thereafter, the current environment is quite favorable for Kiko to attempt to develop annular characteristics, which often allows a hurricane to remain stronger and closer to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) than what the more marginal thermodynamics would typically allow. The short-term intensity forecast is actually above the vast majority of the interpolated intensity aids, which are somewhat influenced by the lower initial intensity. However, the latest raw output from both HAFS-A/B show Kiko maintaining category 4 intensity for at least the next 48 hours, and that is what will be reflected in this latest forecast. After 72 hours, Kiko's environment becomes less favorable, with increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, and sea-surface temperatures decreasing below 26 C. Thus, more pronounced weakening is expected from days 3-5, with the intensity forecast falling back in line with the majority of the consensus intensity aids. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt. This general westward motion is expected to continue through the day due to a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. Afterwards, this ridge begins to erode on its western side due to an upper-level trough digging in to the north of Hawaii. Thus, Kiko should begin to gain more latitude after the next 24 hours, and maintain a more west-northwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered in the short-term, though spread in the various consensus guidance aids increases to above climatology by the end of the forecast period. Ultimately, the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, just a little faster due to the latest guidance updates. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.8N 133.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 134.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.3N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.3N 148.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.9N 152.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 938 FOPZ11 KNHC 041457 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 54 18(72) X(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 135W 50 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 135W 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 40(41) 50(91) 4(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 56(65) 9(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 10(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 7(37) 1(38) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) 1(34) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 33(66) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 43(62) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 179 WTPZ31 KNHC 041456 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 133.7W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1675 MI...2690 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 133.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On Friday, Kiko is expected to turn west-northwestward and maintain this motion for the following few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected in the next two to three days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Kiko can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Kleebauer/Papin

...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Sep 04 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -133.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 041455 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 134.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 140.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 142.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.7N 144.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.3N 148.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.9N 152.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 133.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KLEEBAUER/PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:39:30 GMT