National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 189 WTPZ42 KNHC 040251 TCDEP2 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS (ADT, AiDT, and SATCON) have increased by 5 to 10 kt since the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission into Lorena earlier this afternoon. Since the plane's data suggested an intensity of 70 kt at that time, the current intensity is estimated to be about 75 kt. That said, Lorena is probably at its peak intensity. There are already signs in conventional and microwave satellite imagery that vertical shear is beginning to strengthen, with a sharpening of the southern side of the upper-level cloud pattern and some tilt of the circulation with height. The shear is forecast to gradually increase over the next couple of days, and Lorena will also be moving over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius in about 6 to 12 hours. Therefore, quick weakening is shown in the official forecast. Lorena continues to move toward the northwest, or 310 degrees, but at a slightly slower 10 kt. As the cyclone moves farther into a break in the subtropical ridge, it is expected to turn northward and slow down further by Thursday evening, and then move only slowly north-northeastward into the weekend. The 18z GFS run is finally playing the same tune as much of the other guidance, showing Lorena quickly decoupling as the shear removes its deep convection and leaving the low-level center drifting toward the west coast of Baja California Sur. Now that there is near-unanimous agreement that Lorena is unlikely to move quickly as a deep system toward northwestern Mexico, the NHC track forecast has been slowed down significantly, blending the previous forecast with the most recent HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. This new forecast brings Lorena's center to the west coast of Baja California Sur in about 48 hours as a weakening tropical cyclone, with the system reaching the east coast of the peninsula as a remnant low in about 60 hours. However, based on the latest GFS- and ECMWF-based simulated satellite imagery, the transition to a remnant low could occur earlier than that. Even if Lorena weakens and becomes a remnant low earlier than previously predicted, abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward away from the cyclone. Because of that, there is still a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Baja California Sur, Sonora, and southern Arizona and New Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur and shift into southwestern Sonora Thursday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across northwest Mexico. 2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and southwest New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday. 3. The center of Lorena is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Thursday, and then move closer to the west-central coast of the peninsula Thursday night and Friday. Regardless of the exact track, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible late Friday along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 23.4N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 24.1N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 25.0N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 26.0N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 27.0N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 28.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 585 WTPZ32 KNHC 040250 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 113.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos northward to Santa Fe. * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 113.2 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Thursday, approach the coast of Baja California Sur Thursday night, and move inland over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to begin weakening quickly and become a tropical storm on Thursday. Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the Baja California peninsula by early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther northeast, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 5 inches, are expected from portions of the Mexican state of Sinaloa north and northeast into portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight and will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe for the next few hours, and in the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula late Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 23.4, -113.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 040250 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 5 28(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 115W 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 040249 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 113.2W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 113.2W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.1N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.0N 114.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.0N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.8N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 113.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 23:39:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:26:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 23:39:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:26:44 GMT

Issued at 500 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 032339 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 500 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...LORENA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 112.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos northward to Santa Fe. * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 112.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with an additional decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected late Thursday and Thursday night, with a gradual turn toward the northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, approach the coast of Baja California Sur Thursday night, and move inland over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through this evening. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther northeast, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 5 inches, are expected from portions of the Mexico states of Sinaloa north and northeast into portions of Arizona and southern New Mexico through Saturday afternoon, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight and will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area south of Santa Fe through tonight, and in the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... As of 5:00 PM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 23.1, -112.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin Friday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Hurricane Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin just off the
west coast of Baja California Sur.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:26:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:11:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 21:21:32 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:54:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:54:38 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 139 WTPZ41 KNHC 032053 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 Kiko has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane with recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 5.5 and 6.0 from TAFB and SAB respectively. The structure has continued to improve on satellite imagery with the most recent ADT estimate up to 117 knots, and a raw data T number even higher of 6.4. The initial intensity was thus set at the higher end of the subjective Dvorak estimates at 115 knots. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 knots. The forecast track reasoning has changed little for this advisory. A general westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. The track guidance this cycle remained in good agreement through day 3. After that time, the along- and cross-track spread does increase but is still in fairly good agreement through day 5. The official track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids, near the middle of the model envelope of solutions. Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for at least the next 3 days. Kiko's intensity will therefore likely be governed by inner-core structural changes. Kiko is currently in the middle of a period of rapid intensification which is expected to last for at least another 12 hours. Thereafter, it's possible Kiko may undergo an eyewall replacement, though the environment could also allow the hurricane to develop annular characteristics. Thus, the intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance suite, not that far off the reliable HCCA consensus aid over the first 72 hours. After that time, cooler SSTs and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should lead to a faster rate of weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 131.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032052 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 1 66(67) 21(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 135W 50 X 16(16) 27(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 135W 64 X 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 64(93) 1(94) X(94) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 67(74) 1(75) X(75) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 1(52) X(52) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 2(36) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BANN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 20:50:44 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032051 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 131.6W ABOUT 1600 MI...2580 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 131.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual shift towards the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or two followed by fluctuations in intensity. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bann

...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Sep 03 the center of Kiko was located near 13.9, -131.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032051 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 131.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 131.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BANN