National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...KIKO HEADING WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM HST Wed Sep 03 the center of Kiko was located near 13.7, -133.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 040851 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...LORENA STARTING TO WEAKEN... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 113.7W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 113.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is expected to begin this afternoon and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and approach the coast of Baja California Sur tonight through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of days, and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today. Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the Baja California peninsula by early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur today through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula late Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA STARTING TO WEAKEN... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Sep 04 the center of Lorena was located near 24.0, -113.7 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040851 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 133.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 133.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 142.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 146.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 151.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 133.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 886 WTPZ22 KNHC 040850 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 113.7W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 113.7W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.4N 114.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.1N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.7N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.3N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 113.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 05:46:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 03:26:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 05:46:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 03:26:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 274 WTPZ32 KNHC 040544 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 1100 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...LORENA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 113.6W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos northward to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 113.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Thursday, approach the coast of Baja California Sur Thursday night, and move inland over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to begin weakening quickly and become a tropical storm on Thursday. Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the Baja California peninsula by early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther northeast, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 5 inches, are expected from portions of the Mexican state of Sinaloa north and northeast into portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight and will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula late Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... As of 11:00 PM MST Wed Sep 03 the center of Lorena was located near 23.7, -113.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

531
ABPZ20 KNHC 040508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin Friday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Hurricane Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin just off the
west coast of Baja California Sur.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin Friday night.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Hurricane Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin just off the
west coast of Baja California Sur.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 02:52:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 03:26:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 02:55:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 03:21:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 02:55:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 02:55:21 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 256 FOPZ11 KNHC 040252 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 4 68(72) 9(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 135W 50 X 22(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 52(91) 2(93) X(93) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) 1(72) X(72) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 1(48) X(48) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 2(35) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 8(32) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 022 WTPZ41 KNHC 040253 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 Kiko remains a powerful category 4 hurricane, with satellite images showing a well-defined eye surrounded by a very cold ring of deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -85C. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 6.5/127 kt respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 119 and 132 kt during the past several hours. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity has been raised to 125 kt for this advisory. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 8 kt. This general westward motion is expected to continue through Thursday night, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through the weekend with a gradual increase in forward speed. There remains some along-track and cross track spread among the global models, although the spread has decreased considerably during the past 24 hours. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast track. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by mostly light vertical wind shear through around 60 to 72 hours. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent during the next couple of days, before dropping below 50 percent by day 3. Despite the somewhat dry mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a major hurricane through day 3. There will likely be some fluctuations in strength during the next several days with the potential for eyewall replacement cycles during this time. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to steady and eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east. Kiko will be influenced by environmental factors that can lead to the development of annular characteristics along its approach, which can slow the rate of weakening. As a result, the official intensity forecast remains on the higher end or slightly above the intensity aids through day 5, and is very close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 132.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 14.1N 136.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 14.6N 138.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 15.1N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 15.7N 141.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 17.1N 145.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 149.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 02:52:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2025 02:52:23 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 107 WTPZ31 KNHC 040252 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 132.3W ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 132.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday, with a gradual increase in forward speed expected over the weekend as Kiko approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday, followed by gradual weakening over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM HST Wed Sep 03 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -132.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 638 WTPZ21 KNHC 040251 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC THU SEP 04 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 132.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 132.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 131.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.1N 136.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.6N 138.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 139.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 141.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.1N 145.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 149.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 132.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)