National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 911 WTPZ31 KNHC 030852 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...KIKO MAINTAINS CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 130.1W ABOUT 1700 MI...2735 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 130.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Kiko is forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...KIKO MAINTAINS CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Sep 02 the center of Kiko was located near 13.8, -130.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 998 WTPZ22 KNHC 030852 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 110.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.2N 111.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 113.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.3N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.4N 113.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.4N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 110.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 997 WTPZ21 KNHC 030852 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.1W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 142.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 145.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 05:33:23 GMT


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Issued at 1100 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 030530 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 1100 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...LORENA STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 110.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 110.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin by late Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is likely to become a hurricane during the next several hours. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could be back to tropical storm status by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through Friday. Significant flash flooding is a possibility. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with localized totals to 4 inches, are expected from the northwest Mexico states of Colima to Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur beginning tonight and continuing through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 11:00 PM MST Tue Sep 02 the center of Lorena was located near 20.7, -110.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the East Pacific basin well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Kiko is expected to cross into the central
Pacific basin over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorena, located in the East Pacific basin around 155 miles
south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:43:55 GMT


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Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 030242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 A pair of AMSR2 and GMI microwave passes from several hours ago revealed that Lorena's structure has improved significantly through the day, with the 37-GHZ channel in particular showing a well-defined cyan ring. The center is embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt. This is also supported by some of the UW-CIMSS objective numbers, and the initial intensity is therefore set--possibly conservatively given the structure--at 55 kt. Lorena has a low-level structure and small size that would make it a prime suspect for rapid intensification, especially since it will be in an environment of low shear and over warm ocean temperatures for the next 36 hours. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) index now shows a 3 in 4 chance of a 30-kt increase in Lorena's winds over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast therefore explicitly shows RI during the next day or so and most closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest guidance, during that time. After 36 hours, increasing shear and colder water temperatures are expected lead to weakening, which itself could be rapid due to Lorena's small size. Although there is significant uncertainty on where Lorena will end up in 4-5 days (see discussion below), the cyclone will likely not exist anymore by day 5, and that is when dissipation is shown in the forecast. Lorena continues to move northwestward, or 315/12 kt. The first 36 hours or so of the track forecast are fairly straightforward, with a slower northwestward motion expected while the cyclone moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico. Things are trickier after 36 hours. Lorena will be moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, but how much northward progress it makes will depend on how long it remains strong. A minority of models, particularly the GFS, keep a stronger Lorena moving northeastward across the Baja California peninsula toward Sonora. However, moderate to strong southwesterly shear is likely to set in over Lorena in 48-72 hours, and a good chunk of the other models, including many of the GEFS ensemble members, keep a weakening Lorena offshore the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with landfall never occurring. This new NHC forecast blends the previous official forecast with the latest HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and GEFS ensemble mean, showing a slower motion on day 4 and 5, and introducing the possibility that Lorena doesn't reach mainland Mexico as a tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will begin to affect Baja California Sur on Wednesday, southwestern Sonora by Thursday, and contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona late Wednesday through Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Mexico, especially in areas of higher terrain. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona through Friday. 2. Although rapid intensification is possible through Wednesday while Lorena is offshore, the storm is expected to weaken while it approaches the Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. Regardless, tropical storm conditions are possible through Thursday along portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur. Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.2N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 21.2N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 22.3N 112.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 23.4N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 24.6N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 25.6N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 26.6N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 28.1N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 454 WTPZ32 KNHC 030242 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...LORENA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 109.7W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 109.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin on Thursday and continue into late Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is likely to become a hurricane overnight. Fast weakening is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could be back to tropical storm status by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through Friday. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with localized totals to 4 inches, are expected from the northwest Mexico states of Colima to Sinaloa northward into Arizona through Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur beginning tonight and continuing through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Sep 02 the center of Lorena was located near 20.2, -109.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 030242 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 21(43) 1(44) X(44) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 88 X(88) X(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 32(50) 7(57) X(57) X(57) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 030241 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122025 0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 113.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.6N 113.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.1N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 109.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2025 02:36:08 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 892 WTPZ41 KNHC 030233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 Recent satellite images show that the low-level center of Kiko is now obscured by a large central dense overcast, possibly due to an increase in northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the outflow now somewhat restricted in the eastern semi-circle. A 02/2155Z AMRS2 microwave pass indicated that the cyclone continues to have a well-defined inner-core, with a break in the eyewall evident in the northwest quadrant at that time. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 72 and 92 kt during the past several hours. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to 90 kt. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 60 hours or so, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. There remains considerable along-track spread among the global models, with the GFS and ECMWF still showing a 240 n mi difference in position on day 5. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of the previous advisory, but with a slightly faster forward speed. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most light vertical wind shear through day 3. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending below 50 percent by days 4 and 5. Despite the drier mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a robust hurricane through day 3, with it likely being a major hurricane for much of that time. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear. This should lead to a steady weakening trend, but Kiko is still forecast to be a hurricane at day 5. The official forecast is on the higher end of the intensity guidance suite, and is most closely aligned with the HCCA and regional hurricane model intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.8N 129.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 133.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 14.1N 135.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 16.1N 141.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 17.3N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)