National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

413
ABPZ20 KNHC 221132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located a couple
of hundred miles offshore of Central America. An area of low
pressure is forecast to develop from this system within the next day
or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua through the early part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located a couple
of hundred miles offshore of Central America. An area of low
pressure is forecast to develop from this system within the next day
or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua through the early part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

022
ABPZ20 KNHC 220506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a day or two off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for subsequent gradual development and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week. This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward just off the coasts
of Central America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of days
off the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development after that time and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week. This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward just off the coasts
of Central America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of days
off the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development after that time and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week. This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward just off the coasts
of Central America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

377
ABPZ20 KNHC 211139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development after that time and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

995
ABPZ20 KNHC 210503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves
west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201152
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul

340
ABPZ20 KNHC 200501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin
inland over southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin
inland over southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 02:35:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 03:21:03 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 02:35:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 02:35:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 23:38:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Jun 2025 02:35:35 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 23:38:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 21:21:40 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025 309 FOPZ15 KNHC 200233 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 363 WTPZ45 KNHC 200233 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick has continued to rapidly weaken over Mexico, as the system is no longer producing organized convection and the circulation has become poorly defined. Based on these developments, the cyclone is downgraded to a remnant low pressure area and this will be the last advisory. A 12-h forecast point is included, but the circulation may well dissipate before 12 h. Although Erick is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 12H 20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 628 WTPZ35 KNHC 200232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 100.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates over Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the post-tropical low is expected to dissipate later tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches through the night mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum totals of 5 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur this evening in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 18.0, -100.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.