National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 937 WTPZ25 KNHC 171443 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 94.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 94.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 11:45:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 09:22:36 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 451 WTPZ35 KNHC 171144 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE APPROACHING THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 93.8W ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A hurricane warning will likely be required for a portion of the coast later today. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 93.8 West. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum totals of 15 inches, across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero and coastal sections of Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across interior portions of Southeast Mexico, El Salvador, interior Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE APPROACHING THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.1, -93.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

416
ABPZ20 KNHC 171137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific
basin several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170848 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the system is gradually becoming better organized. TAFB determined a Dvorak data T-number of T2.5 which is confirmed from a spiral banding measurement of roughly a 0.5 wrap on enhanced IR images. Therefore, the intensity estimate is set at 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone is being named. Based on the latest center fixes, the motion remains 300/10 kt, as in the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken a bit by the global models, and this should result in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement and similar to the previous model runs. It should be noted that the complexity of the track moving parallel to the coast of southern Mexico means that small changes in the system's heading will cause substantial differences in where and when the most significant wind impacts will occur. The official track forecast is close to the various consensus solutions including the FSU Superensemble. Users are reminded that the average 60-hour NHC track error is a little more than 60 n mi. Erick is situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment which appears to be very conducive for strengthening, with low shear, water temperatures near 29 deg C and mid-tropospheric humidities of 75-80 percent. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, but some of the numerical guidance shows even more strengthening than that. Moreover, the various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show a significant chance for RI before landfall. Thus, the NHC forecast for the peak strength of Erick could be conservative. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to strengthen significantly before reaching the coast of southern Mexico, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 2. Erick will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 11.9N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170846 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 1(31) X(31) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 53(68) X(68) X(68) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 39(46) 37(83) X(83) X(83) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 43(55) X(55) X(55) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) X(28) P ANGEL 34 1 6( 7) 24(31) 34(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 95W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 95W 34 1 19(20) 18(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 392 WTPZ25 KNHC 170845 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 93.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 93.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/GIBBS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day
or two while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

877
ABPZ20 KNHC 160503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin
a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin
a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 03:22:25 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 657 FOPZ14 KNHC 160233 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 262 WTPZ44 KNHC 160234 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is no longer producing organized deep convection and has become a remnant low. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on Dalila. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, based on recent Dvorak estimates and the UW-CIMSS AIDT. The remnant low has continued on a west-northwestward heading during the past few hours, but a turn westward is still expected tonight. The cyclone will should then continue westward for another day or so while slowly spinning down over cool waters. Most models indicate that Dalila will dissipate entirely in about 2 days. The NHC forecast track for the remnant low has been shifted northward slightly with this advisory, but otherwise the forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 521 WTPZ24 KNHC 160233 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 109.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DALILA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 522 WTPZ34 KNHC 160233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 109.2W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 109.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west is expected tonight, followed by continued westward motion for another day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Dalila is forecast to dissipate late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Dalila. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.6, -109.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin a few
hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 20:40:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 21:22:25 GMT