National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 847 FOPZ11 KNHC 010838 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 130W 34 1 11(12) 36(48) 11(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 53(59) 12(71) 1(72) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 31(72) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25(39) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 ...KIKO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 125.5W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 125.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

...KIKO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 31 the center of Kiko was located near 14.1, -125.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010837 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.5W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.5W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010510
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Kiko is
expected to cross into the central Pacific basin late in the week.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southern Mexico. An area of low
pressure is expected to form from this system within the next day or
two, and it will likely become a tropical depression around the
middle of the week. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph off the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
Interests in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 02:36:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2025 03:21:24 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 907 WTPZ21 KNHC 010237 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.6W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.6W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 125.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 130.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 132.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.1N 134.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 138.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 141.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 606 FOPZ11 KNHC 010234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0300 UTC MON SEP 01 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 58 1(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 125W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 45(47) 32(79) 4(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 28(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 17(82) 1(83) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 18(48) 1(49) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) X(27) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 34(73) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 646 WTPZ41 KNHC 010234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Kiko is gradually organizing. The tropical storm is producing bands of deep convection near the center and on its south side. The latest satellite intensity estimates are generally between 40 and 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 40 kt. Kiko is moving westward at 8 kt. An expansive mid-level ridge situated across the subtropical eastern and central Pacific should keep Kiko on a westward, or perhaps even a little south of due west, path throughout the week. The models agree on the overall synoptic pattern, but there are notable differences in their predicted forward speeds. The NHC track forecast lies near the faster end of the model guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and EMXI models. Kiko is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin in 4 to 5 days. While the wind shear around Kiko is expected to be relatively low over the next several days, the surrounding moisture and SSTs along its forecast track are just marginally favorable for the storm. There are significant differences in the intensity model solutions that vary from Kiko remaining a tropical storm to becoming a major hurricane. Since Kiko appears to be developing an inner core, it seems likely that the storm should strengthen steadily over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one and roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Kiko is currently a compact system. Although it is forecast to get larger, the model guidance suggests that it will likely be on the smaller side through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.5N 124.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 14.1N 130.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 14.1N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 14.1N 134.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 14.1N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 14.5N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 719 WTPZ31 KNHC 010233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 124.6W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 124.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KIKO EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Aug 31 the center of Kiko was located near 14.5, -124.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southern Mexico. An area of low
pressure is expected to form from this system within the next day or
two, and it will likely become a tropical depression around the
middle of the week. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph off the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
Interests in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 20:35:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 21:21:28 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 20:35:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 20:35:18 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 312033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 32 6(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 43(71) 7(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 26(77) 1(78) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 1(41) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 1(20) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 37(66) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Kiko has changed little in organization during the past few hours, with a broad curved convective band wrapping around the western side of the cyclone. Recent ASCAT overpasses did not show tropical-storm force winds. However, there may be sampling issues at work since the central core of Kiko is small. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt in deference to the scatterometer data. The scatterometer data and conventional imagery suggest the circulation center is elongated east-west with multiple cloud swirls present. The initial motion remains 270/8 kt. Kiko is on the south side of a deep-layer ridge that covers the tropical Pacific between 120W-155W, and this feature is expected to persist for the next several days. This should cause Kiko to move westward or just south of westward through the forecast period. While the track guidance generally agrees on the direction of motion, there is a considerable spread in forward speed with the faster UKMET/ECMWF being several hundred miles west of the slower GFS by 120 h. The new forecast track splits this speed difference, and it lies just north of the consensus models. The new forecast is a bit south of and slower than the previous forecast. Kiko is expected to encounter generally light vertical shear while it moves over sea surface temperatures that are around 27C. After 72 h, the cyclone is likely to move into a drier air mass that could inhibit strengthening despite the other favorable conditions. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows 72 h of strengthening followed by little change in strength at 96 and 120 h. There are two uncertainties in this forecast. First, the rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model are notably above their climatological norms, and that combined with Kiko's small core suggests that a period of rapid intensification could occur during the next 72 h. Second, as mentioned earlier any deviation of the track slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the system over cooler waters that would slow or stop strengthening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast, and it lies near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 14.4N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 262 WTPZ31 KNHC 312033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 ...KIKO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 124.0W ABOUT 1090 MI...1760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 124.0 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KIKO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Aug 31 the center of Kiko was located near 14.4, -124.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 312033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.0W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.0W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Kiko has changed little in organization during the past few hours, with a broad curved convective band wrapping around the western side of the cyclone. Recent ASCAT overpasses did not show tropical-storm force winds. However, there may be sampling issues at work since the central core of Kiko is small. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt in deference to the scatterometer data. The scatterometer data and conventional imagery suggest the circulation center is elongated east-west with multiple cloud swirls present. The initial motion remains 270/8 kt. Kiko is on the south side of a deep-layer ridge that covers the tropical Pacific between 120W-155W, and this feature is expected to persist for the next several days. This should cause Kiko to move westward or just south of westward through the forecast period. While the track guidance generally agrees on the direction of motion, there is a considerable spread in forward speed with the faster UKMET/ECMWF being several hundred miles west of the slower GFS by 120 h. The new forecast track splits this speed difference, and it lies just north of the consensus models. The new forecast is a bit south of and slower than the previous forecast. Kiko is expected to encounter generally light vertical shear while it moves over sea surface temperatures that are around 27C. After 72 h, the cyclone is likely to move into a drier air mass that could inhibit strengthening despite the other favorable conditions. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows 72 h of strengthening followed by little change in strength at 96 and 120 h. There are two uncertainties in this forecast. First, the rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model are notably above their climatological norms, and that combined with Kiko's small core suggests that a period of rapid intensification could occur during the next 72 h. Second, as mentioned earlier any deviation of the track slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the system over cooler waters that would slow or stop strengthening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast, and it lies near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 14.4N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.2N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.1N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 137.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 14.1N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN