National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:22:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191438 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick made landfall in the municipality of Santiago Pinotepa Nacional in extreme western Oaxaca, Mexico, around 1130 UTC this morning with maximum sustained winds estimated to be near 110 kt (125 mph). It should be noted that the major hurricane's structure was degrading as it approached the coast. In fact, the eye feature was not apparent at the landfall time, making the exact location and time that Erick crossed the coast uncertain. Erick was the earliest major hurricane landfall in Mexico since records began, and that includes both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The hurricane has been rapidly weakening since it made landfall. The inner core appears to be collapsing with cloud tops warming near the center. The strongest convection is located to the west of the inner core near and to the south of Acapulco. The initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt, but there is a high amount of uncertainty around that value. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as the system moves northwestward and farther inland, and Erick is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico by tonight. Although the winds are expected to continue to decrease rapidly, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico. So far, there has been a report of about 250 mm (10 in) of rain in El Marques in Oaxaca, and additional heavy rains are expected through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue for a couple of more hours in the hurricane warning area. 3. Storm surge could still produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 191437 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 64 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 98.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings east of Puerto Escondido and discontinued the Hurricane Watch west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Escondido A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 98.8 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches in portions of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue for a couple of more hours in portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue into the afternoon in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding along portions of the coast of southern Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 16.7, -98.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 191437 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 1500 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 98.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 98.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 98.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 98.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 11:37:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:22:37 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 211 WTPZ35 KNHC 191137 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME WESTERN OAXACA MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 98.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located along the coast of Mexico near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 98.3 West, just east of Punta Maldonado. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to move inland over southern Mexico throughout the day. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Erick is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, with destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME WESTERN OAXACA MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 16.3, -98.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

166
ABPZ20 KNHC 191132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin near the coast of
southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin near the coast of
southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin near the coast of
southern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development after that time as the
system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low..20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:54:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:22:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 08:54:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:22:37 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190852 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick is about to make landfall along the southern coast of Mexico. Its rapid strengthening episode has ended, likely due to the interaction with land. The eye has become obscured on satellite imagery, and the intensity is adjusted to 120 kt in agreement with the latest objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Erick remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. However, rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland and the system moves over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles in the track, the motion estimate, 310/8 kt, remains about the same as before. This general motion, on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge, is likely to continue until the system dissipates within the next day or two. The official track forecast is just slightly west of the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and devastating wind damage is likely near its core. Take shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure and remain sheltered until after hazardous conditions pass. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 97.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 302 FOPZ15 KNHC 190851 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 67 12(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ACAPULCO 50 5 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) P MALDONADO 64 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 239 WTPZ35 KNHC 190851 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 97.9W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 97.9 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero within the next few hours, and then continue inland over southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 15.9, -97.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 536 WTPZ25 KNHC 190850 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 15NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 97.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH