National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 02:40:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 03:26:42 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Juliette has changed little in organization since earlier today, but the overall coverage and intensity of deep convection has decreased. Most of the strongest thunderstorm activity is occurring in a small cluster just to the southeast of the estimated center. Convective banding features are not particularly well-defined. The advisory intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with Dvorak classifications of 3.5/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB and an objective DPRINT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS. The storm continues on its northwestward trek with a motion estimate of about 325/10 kt. Juliette is moving on the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico. This steering regime should continue through tomorrow. In 48 hours, the cyclone should weaken and move more slowly in the low-level flow. The official track forecast is somewhat to the right of the previous one, but not as far to the right as the latest dynamical model consensus. Juliette is currently crossing a strong gradient of SSTs and is headed for much cooler waters. This, along with drier low- to mid-level air and increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is very close to the DSHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA numerical guidance. Given the expected future environment, the tropical cyclone could weaken even faster then indicated here. Mid- to upper-level moisture associated with Juliette or its remnants will probably spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 20.9N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 02:40:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2025 02:40:16 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 25(25) 19(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 25N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 ...JULIETTE LIKELY TO COMMENCE WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 118.1W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 118.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally north-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Juliette will likely become a tropical depression tomorrow night and degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...JULIETTE LIKELY TO COMMENCE WEAKENING SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 20.9, -118.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 119.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.4N 120.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.2N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.4N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form late this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
system is possible late this week and into the weekend while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:37:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 21:26:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:37:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:37:05 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 262034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 The center of Juliette appears to be near the northern edge of the central convective area, as there could still be some moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone. Overall, the structure appears similar to, but slightly degraded compared to, the system's appearance on satellite imagery 6 h ago. The latest objective intensity estimates have been running in the 45-50 kt range, and the latest Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are both 3.5 (55 kt). The initial intensity is set at 55 kt for this advisory. Although vertical wind shear over Juliette is forecast to be very low for the next 24-30 h, the cyclone is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature (SST) isotherm by hour 12, and water temperatures will continue to decrease with time along its path. Juliette will also be moving into a progressively drier and more stable airmass. Little change in strength is expected over the next 12-24 h, but steady weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over colder water and through drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is near the higher end of the guidance through 24 h, but lies in the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. Beyond 36 h, southwesterly wind shear will increase as Juliette moves closer to an upper-level trough located well to its northwest. The increasing shear, along with the cold SSTs and dry air, should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 2 days. Global models show the remnant low gradually spinning down and dissipating in 3 to 4 days. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwest, or 325/9 kt. This general motion should continue over the next couple of days as Juliette moves in between two strong mid-level ridges, one located over northwestern Mexico and the other located well to the west-northwest of the cyclone. Juliette should slow down some on Wednesday as the steering currents weaken on the west side of the mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. There has been a large northeastward shift to the guidance this cycle. The latest official forecast is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, but not nearly as far to the right as some of the other consensus models like the TCVE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 508 FOPZ15 KNHC 262033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 457 WTPZ35 KNHC 262033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 ...JULIETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 117.2W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 117.2 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower motion toward the north-northwest is expected by late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by early Wednesday, and Juliette is expected to become a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...JULIETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 19.9, -117.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 294 WTPZ25 KNHC 262032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.2W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.2W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form late this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
system is possible late this week and into the weekend while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 14:34:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 15:27:39 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 261440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 14:34:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 14:34:32 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent GPM/GMI microwave pass indicate that Juliette has become better organized during the past few hours. Deep convection has increased near and to the east of the surface center, and the GPM image revealed an impressive tightly curved band wrapping around the center from the southwest. Based on the cyclone's improved cloud pattern and the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 60 kt. Although not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast, there's still a possibility that Juliette could briefly become a hurricane later today, and a couple of the hurricane models are indicating this as well. By Wednesday, however, a weakening trend is expected while Juliette traverses progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moves into a more inhibiting surrounding thermodynamic environment. Juliette is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night and open into a trough over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and resembles the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/9 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast. A slower north-northwestward motion is expected late Wednesday in response to a growing weakness in the aforementioned subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nudged a bit to the left of the previous one and is close to the Google DeepMind ensemble and ECMWF deterministic models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts