National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 270 FOPZ15 KNHC 250835 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 8 65(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 15(16) 10(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250835 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2025 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 111.8W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 111.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two, followed by a motion to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Tuesday. Weakening should begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2025 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 2:00 AM MST Mon Aug 25 the center of Juliette was located near 16.8, -111.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 992 WTPZ25 KNHC 250834 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0900 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.9N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN NNNN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ten-E, located in the east Pacific basin, several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is likely to form in a few days well to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Subsequent slow development is possible late this week into the
weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:34:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 03:27:39 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:34:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:34:45 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 The depression has changed little over the past several hours, and it continues to maintain a broad structure with numerous bands of deep convection. The convection, however, is not particularly well organized and remains confined to the western half of the circulation due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite estimates. Tropical Depression Ten-E is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt on the south side of a subtropical high. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as the steering pattern persists. After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest is forecast as the system moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The shear over the system is expected to lessen soon, and that should allow the cyclone to strengthen over the next day or two. However, any strengthening is likely to be short-lived as the system is expected to move over sub 26C waters in about 48 hours. The expected track over cooler water combined with a progressively drier airmass should cause a weakening trend, and ultimately lead to the system becoming a post-tropical low in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and lies fairly close to the IVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.5N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 37(38) 20(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ISLA CLARION 50 X 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.2N 112.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.2N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.7N 119.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.3N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 110.6W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 110.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two, followed by a motion to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system will likely become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Aug 24 the center of Ten-E was located near 16.5, -110.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Ten-E, located in the east Pacific basin,
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Ten-E, located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2025 20:37:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2025 21:27:43 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2025 20:37:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2025 20:37:30 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 995 WTPZ45 KNHC 242033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 Data from both the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers indicate that the broad area of low pressure located well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation. The deep convection has been forming a rudimentary banding structure over the western semicircle of the circulation. Thus, the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Ten-E at this time. The scatterometer observations indicate that the system is just below tropical storm strength, and the intensity estimate is in good agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain to the northeast of the tropical cyclone during the next few days. This steering pattern should cause a west-northwestward to northwestward track for most of the forecast period. In 4-5 days, the weakening cyclone is expected turn more westward in the low-level flow. The official track forecast lies between the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, model and the Google Deep Mind, GDMI, predictions. The cyclone is currently over warm waters within moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Although the shear is predicted to lessen over the next couple of days, gradually cooling ocean waters should partially offset the more conducive wind environment. Therefore, only modest strengthening is forecast, and the NHC prediction is roughly in the middle of the model guidance. Around the end of the forecast period, significantly lower SSTs are likely to reduce the system to a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 872 FOPZ15 KNHC 242033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 11(11) 47(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH