National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 682 WTPZ25 KNHC 242032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 24 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.7W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.7W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 683 WTPZ35 KNHC 242032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 ...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 109.7W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 24 the center of Ten-E was located near 16.0, -109.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

222
ABPZ20 KNHC 241747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP92):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low-level circulation
associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
mile south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is
becoming better defined, and tropical depression or tropical storm
advisories on this system will likely be initiated later today. The
system is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph for the next couple of days, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the
coast of Mexico. This system is expected to move into less
conducive conditions to develop around the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240541
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of
Mexico. This system is expected to move into less favorable
conditions to develop around the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of
Mexico. This system is expected to move into less favorable
conditions to develop around the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

021
ABPZ20 KNHC 231141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222340
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

324
ABPZ20 KNHC 221751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico is associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle portions of next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

282
ABPZ20 KNHC 212302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211724
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

812
ABPZ20 KNHC 211154
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the early and
middle portions of next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system early next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

924
ABPZ20 KNHC 202313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend off the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system early next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

870
ABPZ20 KNHC 201745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci