National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... As of 21:00 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 the center of Four-E was located near 11.3, -100.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

098
ABPZ20 KNHC 121726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form in the next day or so while it moves
generally west-northwestward. Interests along the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two while
it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend or
early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 15:22:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 15:22:20 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 14:36:42 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111435 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, with only a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds evident on satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. Given the hostile environment and ongoing lack of convection, Cosme is not expected to redevelop, and this will be the final advisory. The low is now moving toward the east-northeast at about 070/6 kt. Global model guidance indicates a gradual turn toward the north-northeast later today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday, as the system steadily spins down and dissipates over the next day or so. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.4N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 111435 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/GIBBS

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 111434 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 113.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY/GIBBS

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 111434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 ...COSME HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 113.7W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 113.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected late today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly/Gibbs

...COSME HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM MST Wed Jun 11 the center of Cosme was located near 16.4, -113.7 with movement ENE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cosme, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late this weekend
or early next week near the coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 08:34:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jun 2025 09:22:25 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 077 WTPZ43 KNHC 110833 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection for several hours and is expected to become a remnant low later this morning. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease accordingly. A 11/0442 UTC ASCAT pass showed winds in the 35-40 kt range in the southern semicircle. Assuming additional weakening after that time, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. After transitioning to a remnant low later this morning, Cosme is expected to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday. The storm is now moving slowly toward the northeast. A gradual turn to the north-northeast with some acceleration is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Only a slight eastward adjustment was made to the previous NHC track forecast, with no significant changes to the intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 263 FOPZ13 KNHC 110832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 181 WTPZ23 KNHC 110832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.5W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 15NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.5W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/HAGEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 182 WTPZ33 KNHC 110832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 ...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 114.5W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 114.5 West. Cosme is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northeast with some acceleration is expected late today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Cosme is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later this morning. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Jun 11 the center of Cosme was located near 16.2, -114.5 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme, both located in the eastern
Pacific basin off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop later this week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend while moving
generally west-northwestward just offshore the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Gibbs