National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 219 WTPZ34 KNHC 090839 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 ...IVO HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 112.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 112.4 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next few days and Ivo is expected to become post-tropical by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...IVO HEADING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM MST Sat Aug 09 the center of Ivo was located near 20.6, -112.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 213 WTPZ24 KNHC 090838 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0900 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.9N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.3N 115.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.1N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

580
ABPZ20 KNHC 090515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin well east of
the Hawaiian Islands. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the Eastern Pacific
basin about 200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin well east of
the Hawaiian Islands. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the Eastern Pacific
basin about 200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 02:35:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 03:26:59 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 844 WTPZ24 KNHC 090320 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 02:35:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 02:35:13 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 861 WTPZ44 KNHC 090233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 After gaining some strength earlier today, Ivo's intensity appears to have leveled off again. The compact storm is still producing a concentrated area of deep convection, but the cloud tops have been warming over the past several hours. In addition, dry air appears to be eroding some of the outer bands. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which is in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates. Ivo could strengthen a little later tonight or early Saturday, but a weakening trend should begin shortly thereafter as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and now shows Ivo becoming a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days when it is anticipated to be over cool 23 to 24 C waters. The storm is moving westward at about 10 kt. The track forecast appears straightforward as Ivo should being steered westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge during the next few days. This motion should take the system away from the Baja California peninsula and over the open eastern Pacific. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus models, and is a touch to the north of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 20.5N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 172 FOPZ14 KNHC 090232 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 118 WTPZ34 KNHC 090232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 ...IVO MOVING WESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 112.1W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.1 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday, followed by a gradual weakening trend. Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...IVO MOVING WESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM MST Fri Aug 08 the center of Ivo was located near 20.5, -112.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN

057
ABPZ20 KNHC 082303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin well east of
the Hawaiian Islands. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the Eastern Pacific
basin about 200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 20:37:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 21:27:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 20:37:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 20:37:47 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 227 WTPZ44 KNHC 082034 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 Ivo's structure has become more organized during the past few hours, with inner core banding becoming more pronounced. Recent WSF-M and GMI microwave data were helpful in confirming the improved structure, and also showed that Ivo's center was located a little farther south than previously estimated. Despite the improved structure, there is a wide range in intensity estimates. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are stuck at 40-45 kt. To add to the quandary, ASCAT data only showed maximum winds of 35 kt, but it is highly likely that Ivo is too small for the instrument to effectively sample its maximum winds. For now, Ivo's maximum winds are set to 55 kt. The storm has turned westward and continues to slow down with an initial motion of 275/11 kt. A westward to west-northwestward trajectory is forecast to continue for the next several days as strong mid-level ridging remains entrenched to the north. The NHC track forecast has been shifted south of the previous prediction to account for the adjustment of the initial position, but otherwise it is very close to the various multi-model consensus aids. Some additional strengthening is anticipated during the next 12-24 hours while Ivo remains in an unstable environment with upper-level divergence, and over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, Ivo could still become a hurricane between the nominal forecast times. All of the aforementioned environmental factors turn detrimental in about 36 hours, at which point more significant weakening is expected to begin. Ivo could lose its deep convection and become post-tropical in about 60 hours. Dissipation is now shown by day 4 in line with the ECWMF, UKMET, and Canadian model solutions, with the GFS being an outlier and continuing the remnant low westward for another day or so after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.4N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 20.7N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 21.0N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 21.8N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1800Z 21.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 082033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 17(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 082033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 ...IVO STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 111.2W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 111.2 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible through Saturday, but weakening is expected to begin by Sunday. Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...IVO STRENGTHENS... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Aug 08 the center of Ivo was located near 20.4, -111.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.