National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 072053 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 44(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 110W 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 072053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...IVO INTENSIFYING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 105.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Ivo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 105.8 West. Ivo is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). On the forecast track, Ivo is expected to start moving away from the coast of Mexico over the next day or so. The storm is forecast to turn more westward by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, and Ivo could become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ivo please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...IVO INTENSIFYING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Aug 07 the center of Ivo was located near 18.8, -105.8 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 747 WTPZ24 KNHC 072052 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 105.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 45SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 105.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 108.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.1N 110.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 112.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 105.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin by
tonight. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the eastern
Pacific offshore of the coast of Southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:58:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 15:33:04 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:52:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 15:27:48 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071458 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 Finding the exact center of Ivo is tricky this morning, but my best guess is that its track has deviated rightward since the prior advisory. A pair of helpful microwave passes, an AMSR2 pass at 0850 UTC and a SSMIS pass at 1050 UTC, showed well-defined curved banding on the 37-GHz to 91-GHz channels respectively. More recently, a visible satellite animation of 1-min GOES-19 imagery shows bursting convection near the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak estimates by TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt respectively, with the objective intensity estimates ranging from 34 to 51 kt. Thus, the initial intensity has been bumped up to 40 kt this morning. Ivo appears to be maintaining a brisk west-northwestward motion, estimated at 300/21 kt. This rapid forward motion is thanks in part to a strong and large mid-level ridge stretching across northern Mexico and southwestern United States. This ridge is forecast to move along with Ivo though it does gradually dampen out in magnitude. The net result of this pattern should keep Ivo on a general west-northwestward heading, with the cyclone turning more westward and slowing down towards the latter half of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle is a little farther north, largely a reflection of the farther north initial position. The latest NHC track forecast is also farther north roughly blending the simple and corrected consensus aids (TVCE and HCCA), but still remains offshore of Mexico, making its point of closest approach in the next 12-18 hours. The small core of Ivo likely could make it susceptible to rapid changes in intensity, either up or down. Because vertical wind shear is relatively low (10-15 kt), and sea surface temperatures remain above 27 C for the next 36 hours, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show significant intensification, making Ivo a hurricane. Thereafter, the storm will reach a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, and should begin a gradual weakening trend. Towards the end of the forecast Ivo will likely lose its remaining deep convection over the sub 24 C waters west of Baja California, marking its transition to a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast remains a bit on the high end of the overall model suite. Given the small radius of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo, these winds are expected to remain offshore as it makes its closest approach to Mexico later today. However, heavy rain and rough surf are likely to occur along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Outer bands of Ivo are expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday where Flash flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.8N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.5N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.8N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 21.5N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 21.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 22.5N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:58:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:58:36 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071455 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 26(26) 6(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 110W 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071455 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 900 AM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...TINY IVO CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 104.4W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Ivo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Ivo is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 24 mph (39 km/h). The system is forecast to move generally parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Mexico during the next day or so and turn westward away from Mexico thereafter. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to be near hurricane strength by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ivo please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will be affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...TINY IVO CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Aug 07 the center of Ivo was located near 17.8, -104.4 with movement WNW at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071454 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 Henriette continues to hang in there despite straddling 25 C sea-surface temperatures. Since the prior advisory, a little more convection has redeveloped close to the estimated center, though overall the appearance of the tropical storm is still rather ragged looking. The current intensity estimate from TAFB has not changed for 12 UTC at 45 kt. In deference to this value and earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt this advisory. The tropical storm continues to move westward, or 280 degrees at 14 kt. This general motion will continue through today, followed by a turn west-northwestward and then more northwestward due to the influence of a subtropical ridge to its north that will become gradually eroded by a large mid-oceanic trough amplifying over the North-Central Pacific in 2-3 days. The track guidance is essentially a carbon copy of the previous cycle, and only slight changes were made to the official track forecast. This forecast lies near the various multi-model consensus aids. Henriette is already moving over cool ocean waters, which are expected to cool to 24C over the next 12-24 hours. While it would not be surprising to see a little more weakening over the short term, the storm has proven to be resilient thus far. Another environmental factor to consider is the upper-level temperatures, which are colder than normal due to a negatively tilted upper-level trough to the storm's west. This trough might help to sustain some convection over what would ordinarily be waters too cool to allow such activity to persist. Once Henriette begins to move over warmer ocean waters again in the Central Pacific west of 150W, the other environmental factors are expected to remain favorable, and intensification is shown in the latter half of the forecast period. In fact, Henriette could become a hurricane in 96-120 h well to the north of Hawaii. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the prior advisory, though there remain some guidance aids that are even higher than the NHC forecast at the end of the period (HAFS-B). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 18.6N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.0N 137.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.5N 140.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 20.2N 143.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.4N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 22.7N 148.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 24.3N 151.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 28.0N 155.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 31.5N 160.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:52:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 14:52:58 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 834 FOPZ13 KNHC 071451 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 3 54(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 140W 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 15(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 4(33) X(33) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 630 WTPZ33 KNHC 071451 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...HENRIETTE MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 135.5W ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 135.5 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest Friday and over the weekend, keeping the center well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days followed by gradual intensification. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...HENRIETTE MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 07 the center of Henriette was located near 18.6, -135.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 071449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 135.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 45SE 45SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 135.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 134.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 137.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 140.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 143.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.4N 146.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 148.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.3N 151.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 155.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 160.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 135.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071448 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 111.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.5N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 104.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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