National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

782
ABPZ20 KNHC 051128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

615
ABPZ20 KNHC 040504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032304
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as it
moves generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

711
ABPZ20 KNHC 021139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

644
ABPZ20 KNHC 012322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

900
ABPZ20 KNHC 011714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011100
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

580
ABPZ20 KNHC 302321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 20:45:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 21:21:12 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 748 WTPZ41 KNHC 302044 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 The satellite presentation of Alvin has gradually degraded today. Alvin is entering an environment of strong south-southwesterly wind shear. Although much of the convection has been pushed off to the north and become elongated, the low-level center still appears to be underneath the southernmost portion of the central dense overcast. A pair of recent ASCAT passes missed the center, but still provided useful information that shows somewhat larger 34-kt radii, so these have been been expanded a bit. The ASCAT data show winds up to 40 kt about 50 n mi east of the center, but there is a good chance that stronger winds are still occurring slightly closer to the center where there was a gap in ASCAT data. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5/35 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 41-47 kt range. The intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory since the low-level center has not emerged from underneath the central dense overcast yet, and based on the ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwest, or 335/9 kt. Alvin is forecast to turn northward tonight as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, toward the east side of a mid-level cutoff low located just west of Baja California. Little change is made to the previous NHC track prediction, which lies down the middle of the consensus model envelope. Alvin will continue moving into an increasingly hostile environment of very strong wind shear, dry air, and sea-surface temperatures that will drop below 26C along Alvin's path in about 6 hours. These conditions should lead to Alvin losing its convection on Saturday, which is depicted by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. There are no significant changes to the NHC intensity forecast, and Alvin is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, with dissipation predicted to occur in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 18.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 284 FOPZ11 KNHC 302043 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 11 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 564 WTPZ31 KNHC 302043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 109.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Alvin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and this motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri May 30 the center of Alvin was located near 18.1, -109.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.