National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080916 CCA TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 Corrected T-number in the first paragraph Ivo seems to be responding to the conducive environmental conditions. Convection has been building within the core of the storm and geostationary satellite imagery has depicted a growing CDO overnight. The small storm has managed to elude recent scatterometer and microwave overpasses and no new information has been collected with respect to the low-level structure. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this cycle based on persistence, which is slightly above the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.0/45 kt. Ivo is moving quickly along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge at 295/18 kt. The ridge is expected to continue turning the storm toward the west during the next couple of days with a significant decrease in forward motion. Ivo is forecast to stay well south of the Baja California peninsula. The latest official track forecast lies slightly to the south of the previous prediction beyond the 24 h forecast time. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast still brings Ivo up to hurricane strength within a day, however this peak lies above all the latest model guidance. It should be noted that this portion of the forecast has higher-than-average uncertainty due to the high spread in the model guidance. Beyond 24 hours, the model and official forecasts come into better agreement when Ivo moves over cooling sea surface temperatures and into a dry and stable environment with moderate vertical wind shear. The system is still expected to become a remnant low within a few day and open into a trough by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 20.4N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 08:50:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 08:50:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 08:47:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 08:47:32 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 695 WTPZ44 KNHC 080845 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 Ivo seems to be responding to the conducive environmental conditions. Convection has been building within the core of the storm and geostationary satellite imagery has depicted a growing CDO overnight. The small storm has managed to elude recent scatterometer and microwave overpasses and no new information has been collected with respect to the low-level structure. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this cycle based on persistence, which is slightly above the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5/45 kt. Ivo is moving quickly along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge at 295/18 kt. The ridge is expected to continue turning the storm toward the west during the next couple of days with a significant decrease in forward motion. Ivo is forecast to stay well south of the Baja California peninsula. The latest official track forecast lies slightly to the south of the previous prediction beyond the 24 h forecast time. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast still brings Ivo up to hurricane strength within a day, however this peak lies above all the latest model guidance. It should be noted that this portion of the forecast has higher-than-average uncertainty due to the high spread in the model guidance. Beyond 24 hours, the model and official forecasts come into better agreement when Ivo moves over cooling sea surface temperatures and into a dry and stable environment with moderate vertical wind shear. The system is still expected to become a remnant low within a few day and open into a trough by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 20.4N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 231 FOPZ14 KNHC 080844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0900 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 908 WTPZ43 KNHC 080845 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 Henriette’s satellite presentation remains unimpressive this evening, having lost nearly all deep convection and with the low-level center fully exposed. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB was T2.5/35 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 26 to 34 kt over the past several hours. A timely 08/0534z Metop-B Ascat pass depicted quite a few 30 to 33 kt wind barbs and this was the basis for holding the initial intensity steady at 35 kt for this advisory. Henriette is moving westward, or 280 degrees at 15 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected soon, with this general motion expected to persist over the next couple of days as the cyclone tracks along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. A turn toward the northwest is forecast this weekend and into early next week as Henriette becomes steered between an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii and the subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official track forecast remains in close agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is very close to the previous advisory. Confidence remains high that Henriette will remain far to the north of Hawaii. Henriette will traverse sea surface temperatures near 24C with mid-level relative humidity below 50 percent during the next 24 hours or so. Despite these unfavorable thermodynamic conditions, the cyclone’s well-defined circulation is expected to remain fairly resilient within the prevailing low-shear environment, allowing for occasional pulses of deep convection to continue. As a result, little change in intensity is anticipated during the next day or so. If Henriette can withstand the next 24 hours over cooler waters, as continues to be indicated by the GFS and ECMWF models again with the 00Z cycle, re-intensification will likely occur over the weekend and into early next week as sea surface temperatures steadily rise to levels conducive for strengthening. The official forecast continues to reflect intensification, bringing Henriette to hurricane strength by 72 hours. The cyclone will begin to experience increasing vertical wind shear as it moves toward the higher latitudes, which should result in rather rapid weakening beginning between 96 and 120 hours. The intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance envelope, and is most closely aligned with the CTCI and HMNI intensity aids, but below the peak depicted by the HAFS models. Future information on Henriette can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP3 and WMO header WTPA43 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.2N 140.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 19.7N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 20.7N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.9N 147.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 23.3N 149.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.9N 154.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 31.1N 159.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 35.8N 163.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080843 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 ...IVO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 109.0W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should continue to monitor the progress of Ivo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west are expected on Saturday, and this motion should continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Ivo is expected to pass well south of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, and Ivo could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Weakening should begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so, and are forecast to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...IVO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Aug 08 the center of Ivo was located near 20.4, -109.0 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080843 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0900 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.0W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.0W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 080842 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 145W 34 1 14(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 3(39) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 35N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 35N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 35N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 080841 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...HENRIETTE ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 140.1W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 140.1 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest over the weekend, keeping the center of Henriette well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight and Friday, followed by gradual strengthening Friday night and over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Future information on Henriette can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3 and WMO header WTPA33 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...HENRIETTE ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Aug 07 the center of Henriette was located near 19.2, -140.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

478
ABPZ20 KNHC 080515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin later
tonight. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the eastern Pacific offshore of the
coast of West-Central Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:53:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 03:27:05 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:58:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 03:21:54 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:58:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:58:11 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 847 WTPZ43 KNHC 080253 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 Henriette’s satellite presentation has changed little since the previous advisory, with the low-level center remaining mostly exposed and only a few small, intermittent bursts of deep convection developing near the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 2.5/35 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 28 to 41 kt over the past several hours. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt for this advisory. Henriette is moving westward, or 280 degrees at 14 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this general motion expected to persist over the next couple of days as the cyclone tracks along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its north. A turn toward the northwest is forecast this weekend and into early next week as Henriette becomes steered between an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii and the subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official track forecast remains in close agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids and is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Confidence remains high that Henriette will remain far to the north of Hawaii. Henriette will traverse sea surface temperatures near 24C with mid-level relative humidity below 50 percent during the next 24 to 36 hours. Despite these unfavorable thermodynamic conditions, the cyclone’s well-defined circulation is expected to remain fairly resilient within the prevailing low-shear environment, allowing for occasional pulses of deep convection to persist. As a result, little change in intensity is anticipated in the short term. If Henriette can withstand the period over cooler waters, as has been consistently indicated by the GFS and ECMWF models for several days now, re-intensification will likely occur over the weekend and into early next week as sea surface temperatures rise to levels conducive for strengthening. The official forecast continues to reflect intensification, bringing Henriette to hurricane strength by 96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance envelope, and is most closely aligned with the dynamical intensity consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 20.4N 143.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 21.6N 146.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 22.9N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 24.4N 151.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 26.2N 153.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 30.2N 157.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 34.8N 161.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:53:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Aug 2025 02:53:03 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 094 FOPZ13 KNHC 080252 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 145W 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 1(37) X(37) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 35N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 35N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 35N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 589 FOPZ14 KNHC 080250 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 7 16(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI