National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 356 WTPZ33 KNHC 080251 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...HENRIETTE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY FAR TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 138.4W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 138.4 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest over the weekend, keeping the center of Henriette well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...HENRIETTE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY FAR TO THE EAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Aug 07 the center of Henriette was located near 19.1, -138.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 184 WTPZ44 KNHC 080251 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 While Ivo has a compact core with a concentrated area of convection, the overall cloud pattern appears disorganized and lacks banding features. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates and in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data. Some of the associated thunderstorms are brushing the coast of southwestern Mexico, likely bringing areas of heavy rain and gusty winds. Ivo's tropical-storm-force winds remain offshore near the tiny core, and are estimated to only extend about 40 n mi from the center. The storm continues to move quickly to the northwest at 19 kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge situated over the southwestern U.S. This ridge is expected to weaken and shift slightly westward during the next few days. As a result, Ivo is forecast to turn to the west-northwest and then the west with a notable decrease in forward speed. This motion should take Ivo away from mainland Mexico and well south of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. The large-scale conditions appear quite favorable for strengthening during the next day or so with warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidities. However, it is possible that Ivo might not take advantage of those conditions given its current ragged structure. There is considerable divergence in the intensity models with the dynamical-statistical aids showing significant strengthening while the global and HAFS guidance show little to no intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous one and leans closer to the high end of the guidance in the short term, but this is of low confidence. Regardless of what occurs in the next 24 hours, weakening should begin over the weekend when Ivo is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters and into an air mass of drier air and stronger shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.7N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 182 WTPZ24 KNHC 080251 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 183 WTPZ23 KNHC 080251 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 138.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 138.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 137.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N 143.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 146.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.9N 149.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.4N 151.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.2N 153.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.2N 157.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 34.8N 161.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 138.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 048 WTPZ34 KNHC 080250 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...IVO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 107.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should continue to monitor the progress of Ivo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Ivo is moving toward the northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest are expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ivo is expected to pull away from mainland Mexico and pass well south of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next day or so, and Ivo could become a hurricane on Friday. Weakening should begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán de Ocampo, Colima, and Jalisco through tonight. The additional rainfall may result in localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ivo please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so, and are forecast to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?ripCurrnets NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...IVO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Aug 07 the center of Ivo was located near 19.7, -107.3 with movement NW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin by
tonight. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the eastern
Pacific offshore of the coast of Southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:55:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 21:27:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:59:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 21:21:55 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 054 WTPZ44 KNHC 072120 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 Ivo remains a very small tropical cyclone, though an intensifying one. Deep central convection continues to burst near the center, though the vertical structure of the tropical storm does appear more ragged with evidence that the mid-level vortex is tilted to the southwest of the low-level center. A helpful Metop-B scatterometer pass at 1643 UTC captured the tiny circulation with a max wind retrieval of 44 kt. Assuming this instrument undersampled the peak winds of the small cyclone, the initial intensity is being raised to 50 kt for this advisory, also close to the latest objective ADT estimate. The tropical storm continues to move quite quickly to the northwest, with the motion estimated at 305/18 kt. The track forecast reasoning is similar to earlier, where a strong and extensive mid-level ridge parked over northern Mexico should keep Ivo moving quickly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 24 hours or so. On this forecast track, Ivo will soon begin pulling away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. By this weekend, the ridge begins to weaken some and the guidance also suggests Ivo will start to become more vertically shallow. A combination of these influences should result in a westward turn in the track and a slowdown in the forward motion. The track guidance for this cycle is quite similar to the prior one, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one, blending the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE. The intensity forecast presents a conundrum this afternoon. Ivo has a small inner core wind field, is over warm 29-30 C ocean waters, and vertical wind shear as diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is low, only 5-10 kt. Ordinarily these variables would suggest that Ivo could undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI), and EC-SHIPS-RI guidance now has a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 h. However, other RI indices are lower, with DTOPS at only 12 percent for the same threshold. There is also evidence that Ivo's structure is not ideal, with current visible satellite imagery suggesting its circulation is tilted southwest with height. This vertical tilt also matches the structure seen in the most recent HAFS-A/B model grids. This may explain why the regional-hurricane models are less aggressive with Ivo's intensification than SHIPS, and only HAFS-B briefly makes Ivo a hurricane. Thus the NHC intensity forecast is not as aggressive as the latest SHIPS guidance, only taking Ivo to a 70 kt hurricane in 24 hours. Thereafter, the storm will cross a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, which should lead to weakening after 24 hours. Like the previous forecast, Ivo will likely lose its organized deep convection west of Baja California in about 72 hours, where the latest forecast shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the reliable HCCA aid, but is lower than both SHIPS and LGEM aids. Given the small radius of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo, these winds are expected to remain offshore as it begins to move away from Mexico by tonight. However, heavy rain and rough surf are likely to occur along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Outer bands of Ivo are expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday where flash flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 108.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.1N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.6N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 21.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 055 WTPZ43 KNHC 072120 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 Henriette has been producing a smaller area of deep convection than earlier, as it seems to be struggling a bit with dry air and sea-surface temperatures near 24 C. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates are 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and 1.5/25 kt from SAB. The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMMS range from about 30 to 40 kt. A recent 1914 UTC ASCAT-C pass suggests that Henriette has likely weakened a bit from earlier. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The motion of 280/14 kt is unchanged from the previous advisory. This motion will continue through today as Henriette is steered by mid-level ridging well to its north. The cyclone will then round the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge as a large deep-layer trough approaches from the west. These features will cause Henriette to gradually turn toward the northwest in a couple of days. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which lies near the tightly clustered consensus aids. Confidence in the track forecast is high through the weekend, and Henriette will not directly impact the Hawaiian Islands. Henriette is expected to continue moving over cool ocean waters near 24C for another 36 h before it begins to gradually move over increasing water temperatures. The tropical storm will also continue moving through a very dry environment. Most of the guidance shows the storm maintaining a 35-40 kt intensity during this time. Henriette is also expected to encounter colder than normal mid- and upper-level temperatures in a couple of days. If Henriette survives the next 48 h or so, then strengthening would appear likely later in the forecast period due to increasing sea-surface temperatures, very low vertical wind shear, and decreasing mid- to upper-level temperatures as the aforementioned deep-layer trough approaches. The official forecast shows some slight weakening in the short term, followed by strengthening to a hurricane by day 4 well to the north of Hawaii. The latest NHC forecast is near the intensity consensus and close to the higher end of the guidance at day 4 and 5. It should be noted that the HAFS models are showing a slightly higher intensity than the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.9N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.3N 139.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 142.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 20.9N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.1N 147.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.2N 152.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.9N 156.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 32.6N 160.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:55:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:55:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:59:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2025 20:59:56 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 300 PM CST Thu Aug 07 2025 Ivo remains a very small tropical cyclone, though an intensifying one. Deep central convection continues to burst near the center, though the vertical structure of the tropical storm does appear more ragged with evidence that the mid-level vortex is tilted to the southwest of the low-level center. A helpful Metop-B scatterometer pass at 1643 UTC captured the tiny circulation with a max wind retrieval of 44 kt. Assuming this instrument undersampled the peak winds of the small cyclone, the initial intensity is being raised to 50 kt for this advisory, also close to the latest objective ADT estimate. The tropical storm continues to move quite quickly to the northwest, with the motion estimated at 305/18 kt. The track forecast reasoning is similar to earlier, where a strong and extensive mid-level ridge parked over northern Mexico should keep Ivo moving quickly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 24 hours or so. On this forecast track, Ivo will soon begin pulling away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. By this weekend, the ridge begins to weaken some and the guidance also suggests Ivo will start to become more vertically shallow. A combination of these influences should result in a westward turn in the track and a slowdown in the forward motion. The track guidance for this cycle is quite similar to the prior one, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one, blending the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE. The intensity forecast presents a conundrum this afternoon. Ivo has a small inner core wind field, is over warm 29-30 C ocean waters, and vertical wind shear as diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is low, only 5-10 kt. Ordinarily these variables would suggest that Ivo could undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI), and EC-SHIPS-RI guidance now has a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 h. However, other RI indices are lower, with DTOPS at only 12 percent for the same threshold. There is also evidence that Ivo's structure is not ideal, with current visible satellite imagery suggesting its circulation is tilted southwest with height. This vertical tilt also matches the structure seen in the most recent HAFS-A/B model grids. This may explain why the regional-hurricane models are less aggressive with Ivo's intensification than SHIPS, and only HAFS-B briefly makes Ivo a hurricane. Thus the NHC intensity forecast is not as aggressive as the latest SHIPS guidance, only taking Ivo to a 70 kt hurricane in 24 hours. Thereafter, the storm will cross a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, which should lead to weakening after 24 hours. Like the previous forecast, Ivo will likely lose its organized deep convection west of Baja California in about 72 hours, where the latest forecast shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the reliable HCCA aid, but is lower than both SHIPS and LGEM aids. Given the small radius of tropical-storm-force winds associated with Ivo, these winds are expected to remain offshore as it begins to move away from Mexico by tonight. However, heavy rain and rough surf are likely to occur along portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Outer bands of Ivo are expected to produce locally heavy rainfall in portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan de Ocampo and Colima through Friday where flash flooding is possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 108.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.1N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.6N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 21.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 Henriette has been producing a smaller area of deep convection than earlier, as it seems to be struggling a bit with dry air and sea-surface temperatures near 24 C. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates are 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and 1.5/25 kt from SAB. The latest objective estimates from UW-CIMMS range from about 30 to 40 kt. A recent 1914 UTC ASCAT-C pass suggests that Henriette has likely weakened a bit from earlier. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The motion of 280/14 kt is unchanged from the previous advisory. This motion will continue through today as Henriette is steered by mid-level ridging well to its north. The cyclone will then round the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge as a large deep-layer trough approaches from the west. These features will cause Henriette to gradually turn toward the northwest in a couple of days. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which lies near the tightly clustered consensus aids. Confidence in the track forecast is high through the weekend, and Henriette will not directly impact the Hawaiian Islands. Henriette is expected to continue moving over cool ocean waters near 24C for another 36 h before it begins to gradually move over increasing water temperatures. The tropical storm will also continue moving through a very dry environment. Most of the guidance shows the storm maintaining a 35-40 kt intensity during this time. Henriette is also expected to encounter colder than normal mid- and upper-level temperatures in a couple of days. If Henriette survives the next 48 h or so, then strengthening would appear likely later in the forecast period due to increasing sea-surface temperatures, very low vertical wind shear, and decreasing mid- to upper-level temperatures as the aforementioned deep-layer trough approaches. The official forecast shows some slight weakening in the short term, followed by strengthening to a hurricane by day 4 well to the north of Hawaii. The latest NHC forecast is near the intensity consensus and close to the higher end of the guidance at day 4 and 5. It should be noted that the HAFS models are showing a slightly higher intensity than the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.9N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 19.3N 139.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 142.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 20.9N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.1N 147.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.2N 152.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.9N 156.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 32.6N 160.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 132 FOPZ13 KNHC 072055 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 27 36(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 140W 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 2(36) X(36) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 30N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 30N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 35N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 35N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 327 WTPZ23 KNHC 072055 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 136.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 45SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 136.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.3N 139.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N 142.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.9N 145.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.1N 147.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 150.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.2N 152.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.9N 156.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 32.6N 160.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 136.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 065 WTPZ33 KNHC 072054 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 136.8W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 136.8 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest Friday and over the weekend, keeping the center well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days followed by gradual intensification. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...HENRIETTE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 07 the center of Henriette was located near 18.9, -136.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.