National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 088 WTPZ21 KNHC 302043 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 29 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located several hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 20:35:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 May 2025 21:21:59 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 808 WTPZ41 KNHC 292033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 Satellite imagery depicts that Alvin has continued to become better organized throughout the day, showing convective banding and a central dense overcast with cold cloud tops near -75C located over the low-level center. An earlier scatterometer pass shows wind speeds around 45 kt. Given the improving convective structure since that pass, and increasing objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity has increased to 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 320/10 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving toward the northwest today, then begin turning toward the north-northwest tomorrow as it moves around a ridge centered over central Mexico. By tomorrow night, Alvin will begin moving northward as it is influenced by a mid-level cut-off low. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. The storm will remain within a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear over the next 12 hours or so. Given the latest convective trends and conducive conditions, the peak intensity forecast has increased this cycle to 60 kt. Tomorrow, Alvin will begin to move into a hostile environment with cooler SSTs, higher wind shear, and a drier mid-level airmass which will induce weakening. Latest model derived IR imagery from both the ECMWF and GFS depict the system becoming devoid of convection, and the latest NHC forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low in 48 h. Thus, there is high confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it nears the Baja California Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 15.1N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mora

Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 8 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER MORA/KELLY

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Thu May 29 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 107.2W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northward turn tomorrow and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected through early tomorrow, but weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mora

...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu May 29 the center of Alvin was located near 15.1, -107.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.6N 108.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MORA/KELLY

892
ABPZ20 KNHC 272321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico, but the system still lacks a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are favorable
for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the low moves
generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

785
ABPZ20 KNHC 271732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery shows showers and thunderstorms becoming better
organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. While the system still
lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are
favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the
low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mora

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery shows showers and thunderstorms becoming better
organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. While the system still
lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are
favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the
low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mora

506
ABPZ20 KNHC 271122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. While the system
currently lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental
conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next
day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mora

238
ABPZ20 KNHC 270530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. While recent satellite wind
data indicates the system does not yet have a well-defined
circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
and more concentrated near a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are favorable for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle portion of the week while the low moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

345
ABPZ20 KNHC 261712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization near a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form near the middle portion of the week while the low
moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 26 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near a broad
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form around the middle of this week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast
of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form around the middle of the week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast
of southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form around the middle of the week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

565
ABPZ20 KNHC 252308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue along a broad trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form in a few days while it moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 25 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue along a broad trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form in a few days while it moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin