National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...TROPICAL STORM IVO FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ROUGH SURF WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Aug 06 the center of Ivo was located near 14.2, -99.1 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 074 WTPZ33 KNHC 062053 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 ...HENRIETTE CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 131.3W ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 131.3 West. Henriette is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Henriette is then forecast to start a more northwestward turn, keeping the center well to the north of the Hawaiian islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Santos/D. Zelinsky

...HENRIETTE CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 06 the center of Henriette was located near 18.1, -131.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 067 WTPZ24 KNHC 062053 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.1W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.1W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 99.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 068 WTPZ23 KNHC 062053 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 131.3W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 131.3W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 130.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.6N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 147.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 156.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 131.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER SANTOS/D. ZELINSKY

660
ABPZ20 KNHC 061738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin
Thursday night.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Microwave satellite imagery and derived surface wind data indicate
that the disturbance located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better organized this morning. If
current trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated for
either a tropical depression or tropical storm this afternoon. The
system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, parallel to, but offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Regardless of the system's formation or exact track, heavy rainfall
is possible along the southern coast of Mexico today and tomorrow.
For additional information, including storm warnings, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Santos

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin
Thursday night.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Microwave satellite imagery and derived surface wind data indicate
that the disturbance located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better organized this morning. If
current trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated for
either a tropical depression or tropical storm this afternoon. The
system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, parallel to, but offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Regardless of the system's formation or exact track, heavy rainfall
is possible along the southern coast of Mexico today and tomorrow.
For additional information, including storm warnings, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Santos

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 14:58:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 15:27:16 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 14:58:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 14:58:54 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 14:58:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 14:58:54 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 779 FOPZ13 KNHC 061456 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 1 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 546 WTPZ43 KNHC 061457 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 Henriette has changed very little this morning. It continues to produce a relatively small area of deep convection, with cold cloud tops present mostly to the north of its low-level center. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, based on overnight ASCAT data and the lack of noticeable change in Henriette's structure since that time. Virtually no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Henriette is moving westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep ridge centered over the northern east Pacific. In a few days, a trough approaching from the west will turn Henriette toward the northwest, taking the tropical cyclone north of Hawaii. The various deterministic and global ensemble models are all in good agreement on the forecast, so confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. The tropical storm is still forecast to slowly weaken during the next few days while it moves over cool SSTs near 24C. However, once Henriette moves north of Hawaii, it will move over warmer waters. Upper-level difluent flow associated with a mid-latitude trough to the northwest may also provide additional support for intensification. As a result, most of the dynamical models forecast strengthening to occur near the end of the forecast period, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward accordingly. Some of the guidance is much higher, including both HAFS models, which show Henriette developing a robust inner core by 120 h. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast at day 4 or 5 may be needed with future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 18.1N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.3N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 18.6N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 19.6N 141.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.4N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 21.5N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 24.2N 151.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 27.5N 155.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 151 WTPZ33 KNHC 061456 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Wed Aug 06 2025 ...HENRIETTE CONTINUES HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 129.7W ABOUT 1660 MI...2675 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 129.7 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to continue heading generally west-northwestward for the next several days at a slightly slower forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible today or tomorrow, but little overall change in strength is expected for the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...HENRIETTE CONTINUES HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Wed Aug 06 the center of Henriette was located near 18.1, -129.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061454 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.7W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.7W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 129.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.3N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.6N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.6N 141.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N 144.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.5N 146.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 151.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 155.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 129.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin
Thursday night.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec has increased during the past few hours.
Continued development is expected and a tropical depression or
tropical storm will likely form during the next day or so. The
system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward around 15
mph, parallel to but offshore of the coast of Mexico. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Santos

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 08:55:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 09:26:39 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 08:55:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 08:55:01 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060853 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 The satellite presentation of Henriette has changed little since the previous advisory, with intermittent bursts of deep convection continuing, primarily located over and west of the cyclone’s low-level center. Recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 34 and 46 kt over the past several hours. A timely 06/0525Z Metop-C ASCAT pass revealed several 40–45 kt wind barbs north of the low-level center. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory remains 45 kt. Henriette has recently turned toward the west, or 280 degrees, at 13 kt. This general motion is expected to persist over the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a strengthening subtropical ridge situated to the north. By around 72 hours, a gradual turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is anticipated as an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii begins to erode the western periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is closely aligned with the latest multi-model consensus aids and remains very similar to the previous advisory. Henriette is forecast to remain in a low vertical wind shear environment for the next several days. During this period, sea surface temperatures are expected to gradually decrease to near or slightly below 24C, while mid-level moisture drops below 50 percent. Despite these marginal thermodynamic conditions, Henriette’s broad circulation and well-established inner core should allow the system to remain relatively resilient in the low shear environment. Only slight weakening is forecast during the next few days, followed by little change in strength. Toward the end of the forecast period, sea surface temperatures are expected to rise again. If the system manages to endure the cooler waters, as persistently suggested by both the GFS and ECMWF models, some re-intensification is possible. The official forecast reflects this potential and lies near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.8N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.1N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 18.7N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 19.2N 139.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 19.9N 142.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 20.9N 145.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.3N 149.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 26.1N 154.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 060853 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) 1(18) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 25N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)