National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 731 WTPZ23 KNHC 050238 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 121.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 121.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 123.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.6N 138.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.9N 143.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 148.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 733 WTPZ33 KNHC 050238 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS SOME FAR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 121.9W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 121.9 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS SOME FAR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Aug 04 the center of Henriette was located near 15.4, -121.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

985
ABPZ20 KNHC 042321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula. Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific
basin Thursday night or Friday.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure just offshore of the coast of Central
America is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 20:36:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 21:26:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 20:36:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 21:26:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 20:36:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 20:36:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 027 WTPZ43 KNHC 042034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone has become better organized, during the past several hours. A curved band has developed over the west side of the cyclone, and deep convection is developing over the surface center. A 1336 UTC ESA Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) overpass indicated 34-40 kt winds in the north quadrant of the cyclone, and a 1746 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed 38 kt winds in the same region. ADT/AiDT and ATMS sounder objective satellite intensity estimates yield 34 kts, while the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support 35 kt. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Henriette with the initial intensity set at 40 kt. The intensity forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous one with gradual strengthening expected during the next couple of days. By mid-period, Henriette should slowly weaken and then level off with little change in strength as it traverses cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moves into a drier, more stable surrounding environment. The NHC intensity forecast has been lowered a bit to agree more with the Decay-SHIPS, the IVCN intensity consensus model, and the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/13 kt. The global models indicate that a strong mid- to upper-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Henriette in this general direction through 96 hours. Around day 5, a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected in response to a mid-latitude mid-level trough moving toward the Hawaiian Islands from the north-central Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.8N 120.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.5N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.3N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.1N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 17.6N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 18.1N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 18.4N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 19.5N 142.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 147.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 110 FOPZ13 KNHC 042033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 34 1 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 04 the center of Henriette was located near 14.8, -120.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 799 WTPZ33 KNHC 042033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 120.6W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 120.6 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 855 WTPZ23 KNHC 042033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.5N 122.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.3N 124.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 127.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 130.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.4N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.5N 142.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 147.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 120.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

871
ABPZ20 KNHC 041714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight-E, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area low pressure just offshore of the coast of Central
America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041530 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X 16(16) 10(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 5(40) X(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 15:27:19 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 15:27:17 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:40:08 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 268 WTPZ43 KNHC 041432 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 Satellite imagery since the previous advisory shows little overall structural change in Tropical Depression Eight-E. The system continues to produce mainly fragmented convective bands, with a few intermittent bursts of deeper convection over the low-level circulation center. The overall organization has not appreciably improved, and the most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 2.0/30 kt. Given these data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/13 kt, along the southern side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is expected to persist through much of the forecast period, steering the system generally west-northwestward for the next several days. A slightly more northwestward motion is possible by day 5 as it moves into the Central Pacific basin and responds to a weakness in the ridge far north of Hawaii. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and remains close to the consensus aids. The system is forecast to steadily strengthen during the next couple of days as it moves over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. It is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight and could approach hurricane strength between 36 and 60 hours. After that time, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as the cyclone moves over sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C and begins to entrain drier mid-level air within a more stable environment. Despite these less favorable conditions, much of the guidance maintains a well-defined cyclone with deep convection through the 120-hour forecast period, with only gradual weakening. The official forecast remains slightly above the intensity guidance through midweek, then more gradually trends back toward the consensus aids thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.2N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 17.7N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 18.4N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 135.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 20.0N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X 16(16) 10(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 5(40) X(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC) NNNN

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 106 WTPZ33 KNHC 041425 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 119.9W ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 119.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)