National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 242033 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 28 66(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 125W 50 2 57(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 125W 64 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 58(66) 10(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B. ADAMS

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 242033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 ...KRISTY BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 121.6W ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 121.6 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest, with a slower forward speed, is expected Friday through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Kristy is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through tonight, with rapid weakening expected to begin Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/B. Adams

...KRISTY BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 the center of Kristy was located near 14.2, -121.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 926 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the central portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 14:33:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 15:22:54 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241432 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Kristy's satellite presentation has improved this morning as the eye has reappeared on infrared and visible imagery, with deep convection wrapping around the center. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicted that the system has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with an inner core becoming re-established and contracting towards the center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate data-T values have increased since the previous advisory with T6.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Given these intensity estimates and recent satellite images, the intensity is set to 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving westward at an estimated motion of 270/15 kt, being steered by a ridge located over the northeastern Pacific. Kristy will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest then north-northwest continuing through the weekend between the flow of the aforementioned ridge and a trough to the west. By the end of the weekend, Kristy is forecast to rapidly weaken with the remnants turning west-southwestward within the low-level steering flow. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous forecast, closer to the simple consensus aids. Kristy is forecast to remain within a favorable environment for the next 24 hours or so, with warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast calls for some slight re-intensification during this time, although recent microwave imagery depicts that another eyewall replacement cycle could occur, which would cause some intensity fluctuations in the short term. Thereafter, the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Kristy. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that rapid weakening should occur through the end of the forecast period. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that Kristy will begin to lose convection and become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and depicts the system opening into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing rapid weakening, and now has the remnant low status at 72h, and dissipation at 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 120.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 241432 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 34 3 93(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 125W 50 X 73(73) 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 125W 64 X 38(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 40(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 241431 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 105SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS

...MAJOR HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 the center of Kristy was located near 14.1, -120.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 933 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 241431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 120.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 120.3 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest then north-northwest, with a slower forward speed, is expected Friday through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Kristy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through tonight, with rapid weakening expected to begin Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231708
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 14:48:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 15:24:18 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 231442 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 The impressive rapid intensification of Kristy has continued this morning. The gradually warming eye of the hurricane is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection, with infrared cloud tops as cold as -75 to -80 deg C. GOES-West derived motion winds indicate good upper-level outflow, particularly over the southern and western portions of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications were a consensus T5.5/102-kt from TAFB and SAB at 12 UTC. Satellite trends suggest Kristy has kept strengthening since that time, and the initial intensity is set at 110 kt, following the rising objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane is moving quickly westward (265/17 kt) while being steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. This quick westward motion should continue for the next 24-36 h. Then, an upper-level trough between the Hawaiian Islands and the west coast of the United States is forecast to erode the western extent of the ridge. As a result, Kristy is expected to move toward the west-northwest and northwest late this week and into the weekend. A westward motion is shown by day 5, as it is anticipated that Kristy will become highly sheared and decoupled, with the vertically shallow vortex steered by the low-level ridge. No significant changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast. Kristy is a relatively small hurricane that remains susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations in a weak shear environment over warm SSTs. The latest GFS and ECMWF SHIPS output shows a 50 to 60 percent chance of a 20-kt increase during the next 12 h, and the satellite trends suggest continued near-term strengthening is likely. The updated NHC forecast reflects these signals and lies above the intensity guidance in the near term, showing Kristy peaking as a category 4 hurricane on Thursday. By Friday, the aforementioned trough is expected to impart increased shear on the hurricane, which should induce weakening through the rest of the 5-day forecast period. With SHIPS-diagnosed shear values of 40-50 kt by the weekend, Kristy is forecast to quickly weaken over the weekend and degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.3N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 231441 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 115W 50 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X 81(81) 9(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 120W 50 X 29(29) 15(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 120W 64 X 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 13(13) 77(90) 4(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 61(63) 10(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 32(70) X(70) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) X(32) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 231441 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.9W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.9W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 231441 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ...KRISTY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 113.9W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 113.9 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday and into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kristy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...KRISTY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... As of 8:00 AM MST Wed Oct 23 the center of Kristy was located near 14.3, -113.9 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 08:42:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 09:24:08 GMT