1 month 2 weeks ago
...GIL HOLDING STEADY BUT MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 17.4, -126.8 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 168
WTPZ22 KNHC 020831
TCMEP2
HURRICANE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 126.0W
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 126.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
578
ABPZ20 KNHC 020503
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gil, located well west-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has issued its final
advisory on Tropical Depression Iona, which is now located west of
the International Date Line, well west-southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan. For
U.S. interests, refer to Department of Defense warnings issued by
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form late next week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020503
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gil, located well west-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has issued its final
advisory on Tropical Depression Iona, which is now located west of
the International Date Line, well west-southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan. For
U.S. interests, refer to Department of Defense warnings issued by
the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form late next week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 02:49:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 02:49:59 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020248
TCDEP2
Hurricane Gil Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Gil appears to have rid itself of the intrusion of dry air it had
been dealing with earlier in the day. The center is now embedded
within a Central Dense Overcast, and as a result, subjective
satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB.
Several objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are at that level or
higher, so Gil is therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.
Gil is moving faster toward the west-northwest, now 295/17 kt.
Strong mid-level ridging is expected to persist to the north of the
hurricane, which should cause Gil to continue moving quickly toward
the west-northwest through much of the weekend. A slower forward
motion with a turn toward the west is forecast by Monday as the
weakening cyclone is steered by lower-level flow. The new NHC
track forecast is just a touch south of the previous prediction,
leaning toward the HCCA and AI models.
Gil only has a small window for continued strengthening since
cooler sea surface temperatures lie ahead. The NHC intensity
forecast allows for a bit more strengthening through 12 hours, but
then fast weakening is expected thereafter due to the cold waters.
In fact, model-simulated satellite images indicate Gil will likely
lose its deep convection in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast
shows it becoming post-tropical at that time. Because of Gil's
fast motion, the decrease in its winds are likely to lag the loss
of convection, and the 45-kt forecast intensity at 48 hours is
higher than is typical for when an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone
becomes post-tropical. Gil is expected to open up into a trough by
day 5, which is supported by most of the global model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 342
WTPZ32 KNHC 020247
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Gil Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
500 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
...GIL NOW A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 125.1W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gil was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 125.1 West. Gil is moving
toward quickly the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A slower
motion toward the west is forecast by Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
overnight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday, and Gil is
likely to become post-tropical as early as Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
...GIL NOW A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 16.5, -125.1 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 232
FOPZ12 KNHC 020247
PWSEP2
HURRICANE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 125W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 130W 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 130W 34 5 54(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
20N 130W 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 33(38) 17(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 000
WTPZ22 KNHC 020247
TCMEP2
HURRICANE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.1W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.1W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.3W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 125.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012330
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands, and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
west-southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.
Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 20:40:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 21:27:21 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 20:40:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 20:40:56 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:40:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 20:40:53 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 736
WTPZ42 KNHC 012039
TCDEP2
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
Gil has slightly strengthened over the past few hours. A
scatterometer pass from 1710 UTC showed an area of near 50 kt
vectors in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. More recent
geostationary satellite data shows fragmented convection, with a
curved band wrapping around the southern semicircle. The imagery
suggests Gil is experiencing a dry air intrusion wrapping around the
storm's core. Based on the ASCAT data (accounting for instrument
undersampling) and a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates
the initial intensity is increased slightly to 60 kt.
The initial motion is 290/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged. Gil should continue a west-northwestward motion
along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next few
days. As the storm weakens, a turn to the west is forecast around
day 4. The NHC track prediction is essentially unchanged from the
previous cycle's forecast.
Gil is currently crossing a cooling gradient of the sea surface
temperatures and nearing the 26 degree Celsius isotherm. Therefore,
the storm's chances for any significant strengthening are quickly
diminishing. Beyond 12 hours, global models predict increasing
shear and a dry and stable airmass will steadily weaken the storm
for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest official
intensity forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Gil is
still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of
weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 15.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.9N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.8N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 21.6N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 22.3N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 23.2N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 23.8N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 550
FOPZ12 KNHC 012038
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 44 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
20N 125W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 130W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 130W 34 1 21(22) 37(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 799
WTPZ32 KNHC 012038
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
...GIL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 123.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 123.3 West. Gil is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
general motion is expected over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast and Gil could become a
hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is expected over the
weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
...GIL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 15.9, -123.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 106
WTPZ22 KNHC 012038
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.5W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.9N 125.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.8N 135.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.6N 137.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N 140.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.2N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 150.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011735
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
west-southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.
Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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