National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:40:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 15:26:59 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:40:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 15:26:59 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:40:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:40:45 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 102 WTPZ42 KNHC 011439 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Deep convection in the storm continues to pulse, though it is mostly concentrated in the southern and eastern quadrants. An AMSR2 pass from 0927 UTC showed a large curved band wrapping around much of the circulation. Subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB both gave Gil a T3.5/55 kt. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this cycle based on these estimates. An ASCAT pass over the storm is expected later today which should help update the wind radii estimates. Gil is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt along the southern side of a subtropical ridge to its north. This general motion should continue for the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, the weakened storm should turn more westward in the low-level flow. Minor adjustments have been made to the latest track forecast which lies slightly south of the previous prediction. Gil only has a short window of about 12 h to strengthen. Thereafter, the storm is expected to cross over cooler sea surface temperatures. By day 2, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase accompanied by falling mid-level humidities. These factors will gradually weaken the cyclone, which is now expected to become post-tropical by 60 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast still expects Gil to strengthen into a hurricane later today, however this prediction lies on the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.1N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.3N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1200Z 22.1N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 011437 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 34 44 9(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 125W 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 53(57) 5(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 12(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 011437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 ...GIL HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 121.5W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 121.5 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Gil is expected to become a hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is expected over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GIL HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Aug 01 the center of Gil was located near 15.3, -121.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 011436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 121.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 121.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.1N 123.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 133.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 136.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.1N 139.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a trough
of low pressure located well south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable, and
development is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 08:50:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 09:26:45 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 08:50:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 08:50:05 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 010848 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 Geostationary satellite images indicate that Gil continues to become better organized underneath the southern portion of a central dense overcast that contains a fairly large area of -70 to -80 degree C cloud tops. Gil is also displaying banding features that wrap most of the way around the cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are a bit lower. Given continued improvement in organization over the past few hours, the initial intensity has been set to 55 kt, and this might be a tad conservative. ASCAT passes from 0437 and 0527 UTC were helpful in analyzing the wind field, and the data indicate that Gil's radius of maximum winds (RMW) is still about 50 n mi. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300/14 kt. A fairly strong mid-tropospheric ridge will continue to prevail to the north of Gil for the next few days, which should maintain the west-northwestward track, with additional acceleration expected over the next 36 h. The official forecast is very near the previous one and lies between the faster HCCA and the slower TVCE consensus aids. By late in the forecast period, the system will likely turn to a more westward track following the low-level flow. Gil should strengthen steadily over the next 12 to 24 h as the vertical wind shear decreases to the 0-5 kt range. The chance of rapid intensification is not very high since the RMW is currently 50 n mi, and the sea-surface temperatures that Gil is forecast to traverse are forecast to decrease quickly, crossing the 26C isotherm in about 24 h. Beyond 24 h, weakening is expected due to decreasing SSTs. In about 60 h, the west-southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase along Gil's path, and this should cause Gil to lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 3 days, as shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite solutions. The NHC intensity forecast is toward the high end of the intensity guidance during the first 36 h and down the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.8N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.3N 125.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.7N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 21.2N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 22.1N 138.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/0600Z 23.0N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 23.9N 148.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 944 FOPZ12 KNHC 010847 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 7 24(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 125W 34 2 11(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 35(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 891 WTPZ22 KNHC 010847 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.8N 122.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.3N 125.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.7N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 135.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 138.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.0N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.9N 148.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 120.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 892 WTPZ32 KNHC 010847 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 ...GIL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 120.1W ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 120.1 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Gil is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...GIL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Jul 31 the center of Gil was located near 14.8, -120.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

334
ABPZ20 KNHC 010504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure located about 650 miles south-southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii, continue to persist. While the system currently lacks a
well-defined low-level center, some development is possible during
the next day or so. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 02:37:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 03:26:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 02:37:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2025 02:37:28 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 010235 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 PM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 Gil is gradually becoming better organized, with increased evidence of banding features over the eastern and southern portions of the circulation. However, the low-level center of the storm has been partially exposed, possibly due to drier air being entrained into the core. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the eastern and southern semicircles, but a bit restricted to the northwest. The current advisory intensity is raised to 50 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. In general, the objective intensity estimates are somewhat lower than the subjective values. The storm is continuing on a west-northwestward heading, but at a faster forward speed of around 13 kt. A fairly strong mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to prevail to the north of Gil for the next few days, which should maintain the west-northwest track. Most of the track guidance models indicate additional acceleration over the next 48 hours, and so does the official forecast. This is also in good agreement with the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. By late in the forecast period, the system will likely turn to a more westward track following the low-level flow. Further strengthening is likely while the tropical cyclone moves over sufficiently warm waters. Vertical wind shear is predicted to decrease to very low values during the next couple of days and the atmospheric environment should also remain moist during this time. However, SSTs along the path of Gil are likely to decrease below 25 degrees C in about 48 hours. This should somewhat counteract the other favorable environmental conditions. The marginal ocean temperatures are likely one of the reasons that the intensity guidance does not show a lot of strengthening. The official forecast is on the high end of the model guidance envelope, as in the previous advisory package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.9N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.4N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 23.9N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch