National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

174
ABPZ20 KNHC 022350
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with a low
pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is forecast to
move slowly northward for the next couple of days, and some gradual
development is possible during that time. By the weekend,
atmospheric conditions should become increasingly hostile,
preventing any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 600 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 424 WTPZ31 KNHC 022350 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 600 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 96.5W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 96.5 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 6:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.0, -96.5 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 124 WTPZ21 KNHC 022035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 96.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 022141 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 96.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 20:48:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 21:35:00 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022045 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 The lastest visible satellite imagery shows the center of the depression as a tight swirl of low-level clouds near patches of strong, but somewhat disorganized, convection. The remnant vorticity of the 97E disturbance, also a swirl of low clouds, was seen earlier to the southeast of the depression center. A recent ASCAT overpass shows a small wind core matching the tight cloud swirl with maximum winds of about 30 kt in the northwest quadrant, and based mainly on this the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The track forecast remains low confidence. The depression is currently undergoing a binary interaction with the EP97 disturbance, which has resulted in a southwestward motion during the past several hours. The models still have somewhat diverse solutions for the subsequent track, although the ECMWF has now joined the GFS and Canadian in forecasting a northward motion. However, the UKMET still forecasts a west-northwestward motion offshore of the Mexican coast. An additional complication is that some of the guidance suggests the center could move eastward before beginning the northward motion. The new forecast track again has significant changes from the previous track to follow the northward motion scenario, bringing the center to the coast of Mexico between 36-48 h. However, it does not currently show any eastward motion before the northward motion, and more changes may be necessary in later advisories if the track guidance warrants. There is no change to either the intensity forecast philosophy or the intensity forecast. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022043 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 34 1 9(10) 8(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 95W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 96.5W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday through Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.1, -96.5 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 96.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
Recent satellite imagery suggests that the area of low pressure that
was located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southeastern
Mexico is being absorbed by Tropical Depression Eleven-E, and is no
longer expected to become a tropical cyclone. Regardless, shower and
thunderstorm activity that was associated with this system is
expected to add to heavy rainfall across portions of the southern
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial
rainfall last week. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of Tropical Depression Eleven-E as highlighted in advisory
data and Key Messages being issued on the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Torres-Vazquez

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 17:33:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 15:29:50 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021732 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 96.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 96.2 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (5 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion should continue through Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today through Thursday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.6, -96.2 with movement SW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:38:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 15:29:50 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021436 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 First light visible imagery and a GMI microwave overpass during the night show that the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is again a little to the southwest of the previous track. While the system is part of a large area of convection, the convection is generally poorly organized, and there has been little change in the various satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The track forecast is of low confidence. Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that the depression is currently absorbing or merging with the vorticity of the EP97 disturbance, and this has resulted in the system center moving slowly southwestward during the past 6-12 h. The models have diverse solutions for the subsequent track, with the GFS and Canadian taking the cyclone northward into eastern Mexico, while the UKMET forecasts a west-northwestward motion offshore parallel to the coast and the ECMWF forecasting the system to dissipate over water. The new forecast track is a compromise between the the GFS and UKMET forecast and shows the center making landfall between 36-48 h in the current Tropical Storm Warning area. This forecast has some significant changes in direction and speed from the previous forecast, and additional adjustments may be necessary later today and tonight. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 159 FOPZ11 KNHC 021436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ANGEL 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 95W 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 95.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 95.8W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion should continue through Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven