National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually develop off the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development after that, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle or late portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for most of the
week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to
the coast of Mexico by next weekend. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec during the next couple of days. Gradual development
of the disturbance will be possible after that, if the system
remains offshore the coast of southern Mexico. The disturbance is
forecast to move erratically through mid-week, and then potentially
move northward toward the coast later this week. Regardless of
formation, heavy rain will be possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

368
ABPZ20 KNHC 291734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico in a day or two. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter part of this week while the system drifts slowly westward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

804
ABPZ20 KNHC 291133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico in a day or two. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter part of this week while the system drifts slowly westward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290525
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern or
southwestern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, some slow
development is possible while the system drifts westward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern or
southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Thereafter, some slow development is possible while the system
drifts westward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form during the early to middle part
of next week off the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible thereafter while the system drifts
westward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form during the early to middle part
of next week off the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible thereafter while the system drifts
generally westward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

811
ABPZ20 KNHC 280513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week off the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Some slow development is possible thereafter
while the system drifts generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of John, located just inland over southwestern Mexico.

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system could form early next week off the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development is possible
after that time while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 20:38:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 21:40:51 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272037 TCDEP5 Remnants Of John Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low-level center of John has dissipated. Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. The monsoon trough associated with the remnants of John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Saturday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received extreme rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán. For additional information on the monsoon trough associated with the remnants of John, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 272036 PWSEP5 REMNANTS OF JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF JOHN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS... 35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 272036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Remnants Of John Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 103.5W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the remnants of John were located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 103.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Saturday, the remnants of John are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally over 5 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally over 4 inches are expected through the remainder of today across the Mexican states of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the remnants of John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the monsoon trough associated with the remnants of John, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 18.5, -103.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 272036 TCMEP5 REMNANTS OF JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 103.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 103.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 103.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOHN PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located just inland over southwestern Mexico.

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure system could form early next week off the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development is possible
after that time while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271750 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN MAKES LANDFALL... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 103.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 103.2 West. John is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight as the center continues to interact with the higher terrain of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with locally over 10 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally over 6 inches are expected today across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN MAKES LANDFALL... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 18.3, -103.2 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 14:34:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 15:44:27 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 281 WTPZ45 KNHC 271433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 John's satellite depiction has banding mainly concentrated on the southern semicircle. The center of the system is very near or just touching the coast of southwestern Mexico. There continues to be burst of convection within the curved bands to the south of the center, and GLM data depicts plenty of lightning within the bands. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 55 kt. Given the satellite presentation will lean to the higher side of these estimates, with an initial intensity for this advisory at 50 kt. The center of John is right along the coast, and gradual weakening should continue as the storm moves inland or moves along the coastline. Later today, the high mountainous terrain will disrupt the low-level circulation and a faster rate of weakening should ensue. Beyond the next 24 h, the forecast is highly dependent if the center of John survives the interaction with land, and could dissipate sooner than what is currently forecast. If the surface center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should re-emerge over the water in a few days, although models do not show regeneration and keep the system as a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and simple consensus aids. John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/3 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction with mountainous terrain. The track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies to the right of the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly