National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 05:49:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 03:35:43 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270547 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 102.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John is a little south of the previously estimated position and was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 102.9 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 4 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast move along the coast or just inland of southwestern Mexico later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight while the center begins to interact with the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through today, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the Mexican states of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JOHN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 17.5, -102.9 with movement NW at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm John, located just south of southwestern
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 02:35:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 03:35:43 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 The convection near the center of John has weakened significantly over the past 12 hours. A curved band off to the southwest and west of John's center is producing a continuous large area of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, but the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49 to 56 kt. Since the convection over the center has warmed on infrared imagery and appears to be less organized over the past 12 hours, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt for this advisory. John has been moving northwestward, or 315/4 kt, which is a bit faster than before. This slow motion is forecast to continue for another 12 to 24 h, as John moves near the coastline or just inland late tonight and early tomorrow. After that, a turn to the west-northwest with some acceleration is forecast, if John survives its interaction with the higher topography in this part of Mexico. The latest track forecast is a little to the left and slightly faster than the previous forecast, and is very near the lastest HCCA corrected consensus aid. It seems unlikely that John will be able to restrengthen since the center is now just 20 miles from the coastline and is forecast to move even closer to the coast over the next several hours. Since John's core has been disrupted by the topography today, it is unlikely to recover, despite relatively favorable environmental conditions. Little change in strength, or perhaps slow weakening, is likely over the next 12 hours until the center reaches the coastline. Thereafter, faster weakening is expected on Friday as the center moves near or along the coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance suite. It is quite possible that John could weaken to a remnant low and dissipate sooner than forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 103.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.3N 103.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 28/1200Z 19.5N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.2N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 20.8N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 4 35(39) 1(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 103.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 103.2 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday morning. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight, with faster weakening forecast on Friday while the center interacts more with the topography of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the Mexican states of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through Friday afternoon. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through Friday night or Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.9, -103.2 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 330SE 300SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 103.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 105.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.2N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 103.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

030
ABPZ20 KNHC 262355
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located just south of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262355
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located just south of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 23:54:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 21:38:22 GMT

Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 262353 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 103.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Zihuatanejo has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Zihuatanejo * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.0 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (5 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. John is expected to remain a hurricane until the center reaches the coast tonight. John is forecast to begin weakening quickly on Friday as the center moves along the coast or just inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the Hurricane Warning area later tonight into early Friday. Winds to tropical storm strength are already ongoing along the coast and will continue to spread inland. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and should continue through the night. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.8, -103.0 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 432 FOPZ15 KNHC 262039 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 3 17(20) 7(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) L CARDENAS 50 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 53 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 263 WTPZ45 KNHC 262039 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 John has slowed its forward motion this afternoon. A scatterometer pass late this morning confirmed that the motion had slowed and the center is lingering offshore. The inner core of convection has become less pronounced and the circulation may be feeling the orographic effects of the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. However, a strong convective curved band extends in the southwest semi-circle. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained fairly steady this afternoon between 65 to 75 kt. Given the current satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 65 kt. The hurricane has not been moving much since the previous advisory and the estimated motion is 325/ 2 kt. This slow motion is forecast to continue as John approaches the coastline, moving along the coast or just inland later tonight or early tomorrow. Some of the global model fields keep the system offshore near the coast a little longer. In the long term, a turn back to the west-northwest is anticipated as the system weakens and is steered by a high pressure ridge located over northern Mexico. The overall environment remains favorable for John to strengthen with very warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. However, John's proximity to the coastline may continue to disrupt the circulation and not allow for much additional strengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows some slight strengthening over the next 12 h. Models are in fairly good agreement that steady weakening will begin Friday, with the system becoming a depression on Friday night. John has a very large rain shield, and flooding impacts will extend well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where hurricane conditions are imminent. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area, where tropical storm conditions are ongoing or imminent. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.6N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.0N 103.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 19.8N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 20.6N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:40:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 21:38:22 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 262038 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 102.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 130SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 330SE 270SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 102.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 100SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 104.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.6N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 102.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 262038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...JOHN MOVING SLOWLY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 102.8W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 102.8 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible until the center moves along the coast or inland later today or tonight, which should cause John to quickly weaken on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds to tropical storm strength are already ongoing along the coast and will continue to spread inland. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly