National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.9, -95.8 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
An area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, in close proximity to Tropical
Depression Eleven-E. Recent microwave imagery and satellite-wind
data suggests these two features have moved closer together and are
interacting. Given their proximity, it is becoming increasingly
possible that EP97 will merge with the tropical depression. Thus,
this system's chances for tropical cyclone development are
decreasing. However, if this system is able to survive, it is
forecast to begin moving slowly west-northwestward later this week,
parallel to the coast of Mexico when conditions could become more
favorable for development. Regardless, this system is expected to
add to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall
last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system along with Tropical Depression Eleven-E.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 11:33:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 09:28:33 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021132 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 600 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 95.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.3, -95.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 08:46:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 09:28:33 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020845 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 Data from both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers show that the center of the small circulation is located somewhat west to west-southwest of the earlier track. There were a couple of scatterometer vectors showing minimal tropical-storm-force winds, but these appear to be rain-inflated. The advisory intensity is kept at 30 kt based on subjective and objective satellite estimates, and the unimpressive appearance of the system. With the re-positioning of the estimated center, the motion is highly uncertain but my best guess is around 290/5 kt. The track forecast is also quite uncertain, but needs to be shifted westward from the previous one. The new official forecast is a compromise between the previous NHC prediction, the trajectory model forecasts, and the dynamical models which are farther south. The cyclone continues to have the potential for a little strengthening before it reaches the coast, although fairly strong northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely limit its intensification. The official intensity forecast is near the upper end of the model guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. Since the system is now farther west than earlier indicated, the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.4N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ANGEL 34 16 12(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) P ANGEL 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATULCO 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 95W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 449 WTPZ31 KNHC 020844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 95.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward along the southern coast of Mexico to Lagunas de Chacahua, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch east of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the depression is located farther west than previously estimated. At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.4, -95.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 95.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 95.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 95.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020541 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 94.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 94.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the depression will likely move inland later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast, and it could become a tropical storm this morning. Weakening is expected after landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning later this morning and are possible in the watch area this afternoon. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 12:00 AM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.7, -94.7 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 05:41:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 03:28:40 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While environmental conditions are generally
conducive for development, the close proximity of Tropical
Depression Eleven-E could limit development during the next day or
two. Late this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, and gradual
development seems likely. This system is expected to add to heavy
rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that
were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week,
and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 02:35:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 03:28:40 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 The depression has not become better organized this evening. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level center, which is now exposed to the east of the thunderstorms. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, near the high end of the satellite estimates. The system is close to the coast, currently over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and appears to be moving northward at about 5 kt. The models don't have a good handle on this system, likely because it is weak and relatively small. The official track forecast continues to lean heavily on the ECMWF solution, taking the system inland over southern Mexico on Wednesday. There could be a little strengthening before the depression reaches the coast, but given its current structure, significant intensification is not expected. The main impact from the system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it moves inland over southern or southeastern Mexico on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for that area. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.9N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 16.5N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1200Z 17.0N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 989 FOPZ11 KNHC 020234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 14 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SALINA CRUZ 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 265 WTPZ21 KNHC 020233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 94.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 94.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 94.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 94.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 94.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 94.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 264 WTPZ31 KNHC 020233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 94.6W ABOUT 55 MI...95 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the depression will likely move inland on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast, and it could become a tropical storm by early Wednesday. Weakening is expected after landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday morning and are possible in the watch area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi