National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:49:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:34:45 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030848 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression still has a disheveled satellite appearance, with a few clusters of deep convection but no clear signs of improved organization since the previous advisory. This is consistent with the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates (T2.0/30-kt), and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center position of the system is very uncertain given the lack of recent microwave or scatterometer data. Based on recent fixes, satellite trends, and earlier scatterometer data, the center has been nudged slightly north and east of previous estimates. A partial scatterometer pass shows the depression is likely interacting with a larger trough that extends northward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The uncertain initial motion of the system is northeastward at 2 kt. In general, the global models show a northeastward to northward motion through Friday while the system approaches and moves across the coast of southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Once again, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward based on the latest guidance. But, the forecast still might require future adjustments if it is determined that the center is located farther east than currently estimated. Significant intensification appears unlikely given the broad, disorganized convective structure of the depression and continued northeasterly shear over the system. However, the warm SSTs and moist environment in which it is embedded could allow for the depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Mexico, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. Regardless, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.1N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 16.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 632 FOPZ11 KNHC 030845 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 6 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030845 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 95.9W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.5, -95.9 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 95.9W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.1N 95.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.1N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 95.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 95.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 06:00:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 03:34:49 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030539 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 96.6W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 96.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow northward motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is possible until the system reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 12:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.3, -96.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 05:39:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 03:34:49 GMT

133
ABPZ20 KNHC 030528
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 02:41:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 03:34:49 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030239 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 The depression has changed little during the past several hours, and it remains embedded in a larger-scale trough that extends from offshore of Manzanillo northeastward to the central Gulf of Mexico. The system itself continues to produce patches of deep convection, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with 2.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression has been drifting southwestward, but the models generally agree that an abrupt turn to the north should occur on Thursday, with that motion bringing the system to the coast of southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the east to be in better agreement with the latest models, but this prediction still lies to the west of most of the model solutions. Strengthening is possible before the cyclone reaches the coast, but since the system remains disorganized and embedded in a larger trough, significant intensification seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. The main threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely continue in portions of southern Mexico during the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.2N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030239 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 13(16) 11(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATULCO 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 95W 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030239 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 96.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 96.7 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Thursday with that motion continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall there Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is possible until the system reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 9:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.2, -96.7 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 833 WTPZ21 KNHC 030238 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 96.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 96.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 23:50:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 21:35:00 GMT