National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity
over the past several hours in association with a weak area of low
pressure located about 125 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta,
Mexico. A tropical depression could still form over the next day
or so as the system moves slowly north-northwestward to
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. By late
Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable,
and further development is not expected after that time. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 150 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico, have changed
little in organization since yesterday. Only a small increase in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression
during the next day or so. By late Wednesday, upper-level winds are
forecast to become more unfavorable, and further development is not
expected. The system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward
to northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080543
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 100 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico have changed
little in organization. Environmental conditions appear somewhat
favorable for additional development and only a small increase in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression
on Tuesday. The system is forecast to move slowly
north-northwestward to northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the
disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
changed little in organization this afternoon. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some additional development and only
a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a
tropical depression tonight or tomorrow. The system is forecast to
move slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
continued to become better organized today. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while
the system moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the
disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 125 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
increased during the past several hours, but remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in the next day or two while it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico
remain limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions,
however, appear generally favorable for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062339
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Earlier satellite wind data indicated that an area of low pressure
located less than a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico
was becoming better defined. However, the current associated shower
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple
of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of
southwestern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of
southwestern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle portion of
next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located just off the coast of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and
a tropical depression could form during the early or middle portions
of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of
development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

906
ABPZ20 KNHC 050513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited
and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Atmospheric
conditions are becoming less conducive and further development is
not expected as the low moves slowly northward and northeastward
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the weekend or early part of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part
of next week while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible today while the low moves slowly northward
or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should become
less conducive and prevent further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early part of next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week
while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible on Friday while the low moves slowly
northward or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should
become less conducive and prevent further development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early part of next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week
while the system drifts slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible on Friday while the low moves slowly
northward or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should
become less conducive and prevent further development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

359
ABPZ20 KNHC 032335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of
southeastern Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci