National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 20:40:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 21:35:07 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032040 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Eleven-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 A recent ASCAT overpass shows that a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event has interacted with the depression and disrupted the circulation. The scatterometer data indicate that there is no longer a well-defined closed circulation. although tropical-storm force winds are occurring to the northwest of the remains of the center. Based on this, the depression has degenerated to an open trough even though there are now stronger winds associated with the system than earlier. Thus, advisories and the Tropical Storm Warnings are being discontinued, and the current winds will be handled in marine gale warnings. The remnants of the center are near a cluster of convection over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and they should move northward over southeastern Mexico in the next 6-12 h. The remnants are expected to dissipate over Mexico on Friday. Although the depression has degenerated, the threat of heavy rainfall will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. For additional information on the remnant low please see forecasts from the Meteorological Service of Mexico and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued, wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours along the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly in areas of onshore winds. 2. Due to the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E, additional heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.7N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032039 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF ELEVEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS ...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032039 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 94.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 94.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 94.6W...POST-TROPICAL FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 94.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS PLEASE SEE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Eleven-E Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH... ...REMNANTS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 94.6W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Ther are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although the warnings have been discontinued, interests in southeastern Mexico should continue monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Eleven-E were located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 94.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the remnants of the depression should move inland over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec later today or tonight. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the remnants are forecast to dissipate over Mexico on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, mainly in offshore flow to the north and west of the remnants. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, is expected across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the Remnants of Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by the Remnants of Eleven-E are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants please see forecasts issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH... ...REMNANTS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.7, -94.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 17:33:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:34:50 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031732 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS LESS ORGANIZED... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 95.1W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning west of Puerto Angel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 95.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system could be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS LESS ORGANIZED... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.6, -95.1 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 248 FOPZ11 KNHC 031435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 909 WTPZ41 KNHC 031435 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression continues to produce a large, but poorly organized, area of convection, with the low-level center most likely in the northern portion of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30 kt, and this is the initial intensity for this advisory. The center position has a larger than normal amount of uncertainty, and the initial motion is also a bit uncertain at 045/5. The track forecast guidance suggests a generally northward motion should occur during the next 24-36 h, and the new track forecast follows this in bringing the center to the coast of Mexico in 12-24 hours and inland over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec after that. It is possible that some adjustments to the forecast may occur if data that better shows the center position becomes available. While the environment does not favor significant strengthening before landfall, any intensification at all would bring the system to tropical storm strength, and the new intensity forecast continues to show this occurring. After landfall, the system should quickly weaken, with the remnants eventually becoming absorbed into the large area of disturbed weather that is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico. While the forecast shows the system lasting through 36 h, it could dissipate at any time as it crosses the mountains of Mexico. Regardless of whether intensification occurs, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:40:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:34:50 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 031435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 95.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 95.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 95.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 95.6W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 95.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.2, -95.6 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 11:34:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:34:45 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031132 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 600 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 95.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 95.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h), and a slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... As of 6:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.0, -95.7 with movement NE at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.