National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 Kristy is becoming better organized this evening. Bursts of deep convection are wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation with upper-level outflow also present in this region. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range between 35 to 53 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS DMINT objective Dvorak estimate. The tropical storm is heading westward at 270/14 kt. This general motion should continue through Thursday while Kristy moves along the southern side of a subtropical ridge. By Friday and Saturday, the storm will reach a weakness in the ridge caused by a cutoff low over the north Pacific and gradually turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus aids. The fragmented convection seen on satellite infrared imagery seems to indicate that there is a dry air intrusion possibly slowing Kristy's present organization. However, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are quickly becoming more conducive for significant to rapid intensification. Statistical guidance from SHIPS-RII is showing a high chance (72 percent) of 25 kt of strengthening in 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast now explicitly forecasts this increase, making Kristy a hurricane on Tuesday and nudging up the peak to 100 kt in 60 h. On Friday and Saturday, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, between the HCCA and the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220242 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 45 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 39(39) 50(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 42(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 76(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 82(86) 2(88) X(88) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 2(60) X(60) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 1(38) X(38) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 59(72) 1(73) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) X(41) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220241 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220241 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY HEADING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.3W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.3 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days and Kristy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY HEADING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Oct 21 the center of Kristy was located near 13.7, -103.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Storm Kristy, located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 20:47:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 21:29:05 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 212044 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 The low pressure system located offshore the southern coast of Mexico has quickly become better organized since last night based on available GOES-West imagery and wind-derived satellite data. An ASCAT wind pass from a few hours ago indicated that the surface circulation had become well-defined and sustained winds were already around 30-35 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were T2.0 and T2.5, respectively. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Kristy with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion of this tropical storm is westward at 270/15 kt. Kristy is expected to continue on this general motion during the next few days as is steered by broad subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California. Late this week, Kristy will be approaching a weakness created by a large cutoff low over the North Pacific. This weakness should allow the tropical cyclone to turn to the northwest by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement, especially early in the forecast period, and the initial forecast track follows the HCCA and TVCE models closely. Relatively low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures should allow Kristy to steadily gain strength over the next few days. The forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to become a hurricane on Wednesday. SHIPS guidance from both GFS and ECMWF suggest that the wind shear values will be less than 10 kt by midweek, while the sea-surface temperatures will be around 28-29 C. Such favorable conditions could favor significant strengthening once the inner-core becomes established. By Friday, Kristy will be crossing the 26 C isotherm and the global model guidance also indicates that the wind shear will also abruptly increase. Thus weakening is expected to begin between forecast days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.5N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Delgado/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 212043 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 57(58) 3(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 29(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 28(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 75(75) 4(79) X(79) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 3(47) X(47) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 69(72) 3(75) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 2(45) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 310 WTPZ32 KNHC 212043 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 102.0W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 102.0 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days and Kristy could become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Delgado/Papin

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Mon Oct 21 the center of Kristy was located near 13.5, -102.0 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 212042 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 65NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 65NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN NNNN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211754
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that a well-defined
surface circulation is forming with an area of low pressure located
a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system also
continues to become better organized. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical
depression or storm at 2 PM PDT. This system is forecast to move
westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. Additional
information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Delgado/Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore
of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or
storm is expected to form within the next day or so while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/Delgado

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210538
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located more than 100 miles offshore the coast of southern Mexico
have become a little better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form within the
next day or so while the system moves westward at around 15 mph away
from the coast of Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202342
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days, while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure has developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this morning, which is due in part to the remnants of Nadine.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days, while the system moves westward at around 15 mph away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific by late today. The
combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation
of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a
day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

940
ABPZ20 KNHC 200506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific by late Sunday. The
combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation
of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a
day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen