National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 20:38:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 20:38:09 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 022037 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 Gil is holding steady this afternoon as it traverses cool waters. Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that convection remains confined to the northeast semicircle of the circulation, with the southwestern portion largely devoid of deep convection. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates, as well as a recent ASCAT pass, indicate that the intensity has not changed much. Based on this data, the initial intensity of Gil remains at 60 kt. The tropical storm continues to move west-northwestward at about 295/17 under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the north, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, as Gil continues to weaken and is increasingly steered by the low-level flow, a gradual turn toward the west is expected. The track forecast is very close to the previous official forecast and represents a blend of the tightly clustered consensus aids. Gil is forecast to weaken as it moves over increasingly cooler waters for the next several days. Global models indicate that deep convection will largely diminish after about 36 h, at which time the cyclone will become post-tropical. After about 48 h, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly detrimental, with shear increasing and mid-level moisture decreasing. The cyclone is expected to dissipate after 96 h. The new forecast is similar to both the prior forecast and the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.0N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.0N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.0N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 22.3N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 23.0N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 23.6N 151.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 776 FOPZ12 KNHC 022036 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 2100 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 34 4 24(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 022036 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 2100 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 130.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 130.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N 132.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 135.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 138.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 151.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 022036 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 ...GIL HOLDING STEADY AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 130.5W ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 130.5 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed on Sunday and a gradual turn toward the west early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours before Gil becomes post-tropical late Sunday or on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Hogsett

...GIL HOLDING STEADY AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Aug 02 the center of Gil was located near 19.0, -130.5 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently-downgraded Tropical Storm Gil, located well
west-southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or so. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and
a tropical depression could form late next week as the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 14:39:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 15:21:53 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 14:39:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 14:39:21 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 021435 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 Gil is weakening as the center is now over sea surface temperatures near 25C. Satellite imagery shows that the associated convection is decreasing and becoming asymmetric, with little convection left in the western semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now trending downward, and based on this Gil is downgraded to a tropical storm with 60-kt winds. The initial motion is 295/17. Gil is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge to the north, and a generally west-northwestward motion should continue for the next day or two. After that, a more westward motion is expected as the cyclone weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. There is little change in the track guidance from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Gil should continue weakening as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggests the cyclone should stop producing convection at around 36 h, and thus the intensity forecast again indicates post-tropical status at that time. While the sea surface temperatures increase along the forecast track after 36 h, increasing westerly shear and dry air entraining should keep the cyclone or its remnants weakening. The new forecast follows the previous forecast in showing dissipation between 96-120 h, which is in agreement with the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 22.7N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 021435 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 76 X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 130W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 2 10(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 630 WTPZ32 KNHC 021435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sat Aug 02 2025 ...GIL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 128.6W ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed through Sunday night. A slower motion toward the west is forecast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Gil is likely to become post-tropical Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...GIL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Aug 02 the center of Gil was located near 18.3, -128.6 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 021434 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 128.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 128.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.7N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gil, located well west-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development, and a tropical depression could form late next week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 08:36:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 09:21:54 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 08:36:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2025 08:36:08 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 020834 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gil Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Gil has likely reached its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows convection in the northwestern quadrant has mostly eroded, likely due to dry air entrainment and the system now moving over marginal sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C. However, the cyclone still displays impressive banding features wrapping around its southern and eastern sides. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain steady at 4.0/65 kt, consistent with objective satellite estimates ranging from 50 to 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The initial motion is estimated at 300/17 kt, steered by a strong mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to continue into Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the west as the cyclone weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to the consensus aids. Gil is expected to begin weakening through the day Saturday as it continues moving over progressively cooler waters and encounters increasingly dry and stable mid-level air. These unfavorable conditions should lead to a gradual erosion of the cyclone’s convective structure. Simulated satellite imagery from global models suggests that Gil will lose its deep convection and become post-tropical by Sunday, or in about 36 hours. The system is then forecast to gradually spin down and dissipate by day 5, in line with the majority of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.4N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 787 FOPZ12 KNHC 020832 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 32 44(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 20N 130W 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X 8( 8) 28(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 599 WTPZ32 KNHC 020832 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gil Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 ...GIL HOLDING STEADY BUT MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 126.8W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gil was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 126.8 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through much of the weekend. A slower motion toward the west is forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin Saturday, and Gil is likely to become post-tropical as early as Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)