National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230840 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 Kristy is rapidly strengthening this morning, with the latest satellite imagery showing an eye developing in the central dense overcast and good cirrus outflow in the western semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 75-95 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt. Kristy is moving 265/17 kt on the south side of the subtropical ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 36 h or so. From 36-72 h, Kristy should turn northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that, strong upper-level winds should cause the cyclone to shear apart, with the low-level circulation turning westward on the south side of a low-level ridge. The new forecast track is generally similar to the old track, but is has been nudged northward between 60-96 h in response to a northward shift in the guidance. The hurricane should remain in an environment of light shear over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 h or so, and thus continued steady to rapid strengthening is expected during that time. The first 36-48 h of the intensity forecast is at or a little above the upper edge of the intensity guidance and calls for a peak intensity of 120 kt. However, given current trends, it would not be a surprise if Kristy got stronger than this. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly shear and move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this combination should cause steady to rapid weakening. This part of the new intensity forecast calls for the system to weaken to a tropical storm by 96 h and then quickly decay to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 Kristy is rapidly strengthening this morning, with the latest satellite imagery showing an eye developing in the central dense overcast and good cirrus outflow in the western semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 75-95 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt. Kristy is moving 265/17 kt on the south side of the subtropical ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 36 h or so. From 36-72 h, Kristy should turn northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that, strong upper-level winds should cause the cyclone to shear apart, with the low-level circulation turning westward on the south side of a low-level ridge. The new forecast track is generally similar to the old track, but is has been nudged northward between 60-96 h in response to a northward shift in the guidance. The hurricane should remain in an environment of light shear over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 h or so, and thus continued steady to rapid strengthening is expected during that time. The first 36-48 h of the intensity forecast is at or a little above the upper edge of the intensity guidance and calls for a peak intensity of 120 kt. However, given current trends, it would not be a surprise if Kristy got stronger than this. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly shear and move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this combination should cause steady to rapid weakening. This part of the new intensity forecast calls for the system to weaken to a tropical storm by 96 h and then quickly decay to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 230840 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 86 7(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 115W 50 26 17(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 115W 64 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 120W 34 X 11(11) 80(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 57(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 62(64) 28(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 42(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 34(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 49(65) 1(66) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 1(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 230840 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 112.0W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 112.0 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Kristy is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Oct 23 the center of Kristy was located near 14.5, -112.0 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230839 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 86 7(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 115W 50 26 17(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 115W 64 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 120W 34 X 11(11) 80(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 57(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 62(64) 28(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 42(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 34(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 49(65) 1(66) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 1(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Oct 23 the center of Kristy was located near 14.5, -112.0 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 112.0W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 112.0 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Kristy is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

968
ABPZ20 KNHC 230527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 02:37:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 03:22:56 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 230235 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 115W 34 1 93(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 115W 50 X 59(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 115W 64 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 74(75) 16(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 35(35) 29(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 23(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 73(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 62(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 1(43) X(43) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 2(55) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230235 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 Kristy continues to steadily intensify. 1-minute geostationary satellite imagery show continuous deep bursts of convection near the center, a curved band wrapping around the western and southern portions of the circulation, and symmetric upper-level outflow. An AMSR2 microwave pass from 1919 UTC showed a vertically aligned low- and mid-level eye. Dvorak estimates have increased this cycle and the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt, representing a blend of the TAFB (T4.0/65 kt) and SAB (T4.5/77 kt) classifications. A subtropical ridge to the north is steering the hurricane to the west at about 17 kt. This westward motion should continue for the next couple of days until Kristy reaches a weakness in the ridge. By Friday, models anticipate the hurricane to turn west-northwestward followed by a northwestward turn on Saturday. The more shallow vortex is expect to bend back to the west-northwest in the low-level flow by the end of the forecast period. The guidance envelope remains tightly clustered and there are only minor changes made to the latest official track forecast. There is little change to the intensity forecast reasoning as well. Low vertical wind shear, ample mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperature all provide the ingredients to support steady to rapid intensification. Statistical guidance is still showing above average chances of rapid intensification in the next 24 h and the official forecast reflects this. Global models suggest vertical wind shear could increase quickly by Friday as Kristy approaches cooler waters. Steady to rapid weakening is expected beyond 72 h and Kristy should lose its organized deep convection by 120 h and become a post-tropical cyclone. The latest intensity forecast lies at the top of the guidance envelope in the short-term and closer to center during the middle to long-range time periods. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.7N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.5N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.2N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.4N 127.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 19.2N 131.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 20.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 230235 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 ...HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 110.1W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 110.1 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this westward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest and northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Kristy could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Oct 22 the center of Kristy was located near 14.7, -110.1 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230234 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.1W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.1W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.2N 125.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 127.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 131.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.6N 135.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 20:55:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 21:22:57 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222053 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 Recent satellite and ASCAT data show Kristy has strengthened significantly over the last six hours. Satellite imagery shows persistent convection starting to wrap around a potential inner core, with high-level cirrus clouds beginning to clear out, revealing a developing eye. The ASCAT pass from 1618z showed a robust wind field, with a max wind retrieval of 53 kt. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates also concur with these observations, with T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB at 18 UTC. Given the improvement on satellite since that time, the initial intensity is now set at the upper-end of these estimates at 65 kt, making Kristy a hurricane. Kristy continues to move just north of due west this afternoon as it skirts along the periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge. Current motion is set at 275/16 kt and this westward motion should continue for the next couple of days. The cyclone will begin to track poleward starting this weekend around 60-72 hours as a mid-level trough impinges on the ridge. Uncertainty increases by that time given differences in the global models as to the evolution of the synoptic pattern. As such, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the previous one over the next couple of days and is just a little to the south of the previous forecast track thereafter. The intensity forecast remains quite bullish, with rapid intensification expected within the next 12-24 hours as Kristy encounters a very favorable environment as indicated by the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. The latter aid also indicates a 40 percent chance of a 40 kt increase in intensity in 24 hours, nearly ten times the climatological average. The latest NHC forecast will explicitly show Kristy intensifying up to 100 kt major hurricane intensity in 24 h, with a peak intensity of 115 kt at 60 h. After 60-72 h, Kristy will encounter a more hostile environment, with increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures which will likely weaken the cyclone by the end of the forecast. Kristy is likely to become post-tropical in 120 h as it loses convective organization. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 14.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 222044 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 110W 64 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 1 84(85) 9(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 115W 50 X 45(45) 24(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 115W 64 X 19(19) 23(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 31(31) 59(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 57(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 85(90) 1(91) X(91) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) 1(68) X(68) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 6(53) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN