Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041424 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 119.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 119.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 124.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.7N 129.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.4N 132.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 135.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041112
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eight-E, located well southwest of the Baja
California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure just offshore of the coast of Central
America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 193 WTPZ43 KNHC 040850 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula have become better organized during the past 12 hours. Additionally, an overnight ASCAT pass showed a well-defined circulation with peak winds near 30 kt. Given the improved convective organization and well-defined circulation, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a blend of the ASCAT pass and Dvorak current intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is estimated at 300/13 kt, along the southern side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to remain in place through the 5-day period, steering the system generally west-northwestward for the entire forecast. A slightly more westward motion is possible by day 4 as the cyclone becomes more shallow and is steered within the low- to mid-level flow. The updated track forecast is close to the consensus aids. The system is forecast to steadily strengthen during the next couple of days as it moves over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. It is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday and could approach hurricane strength between 36 and 60 hours. After that time, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as the cyclone moves over sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C and begins to entrain drier mid-level air within a more stable environment. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models supports this scenario, showing a reduction in deep convection as the system continues west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin. The forecast is slightly above the intensity guidance through 60 hours, then is in good agreement with the consensus aids thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.4N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.4N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 16.4N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 18.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 19.8N 138.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 21.2N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 20 24(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 120W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) X(38) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 9(27) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eight-E Public Advisory Number 1

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040849 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 118.2W ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 118.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 684 WTPZ23 KNHC 040848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.4N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.4N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.2N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.8N 138.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.2N 145.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040524
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become slightly better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is very likely to form during the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure just offshore of Central America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
712
ABPZ20 KNHC 032309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is very likely to form during the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by midweek. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil, located well east of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Central East Pacific (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula are associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is very likely to form during the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by midweek. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Rosado-Vazquez
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Forecast Discussion Number 14

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 364 WTPZ42 KNHC 031432 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 Cool waters combined with a drier and more stable environment have taken their toll on Gil. The system has been devoid of deep convection overnight, with only an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds remaining. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. Given the cool waters, dry and stable air, and strengthening west-southwesterly shear, no new organized convection is expected. Therefore, this will be the final advisory on the system as it has become post-tropical. Gil is expected to dissipate around midweek as it opens into a trough northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion is estimated at 285/16 kt. The system is being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north, and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A gradual decrease in forward speed is anticipated by Monday, followed by a turn toward the west as the shallow remnant low becomes steered by the low-level flow. The updated track forecast remains close to the previous advisory and continues to follow the tightly clustered guidance envelope. For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0000Z 21.2N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1200Z 21.7N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 21.9N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.0N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z 22.3N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 22.8N 151.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2025 062 FOPZ12 KNHC 031432 PWSEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Public Advisory Number 14

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 373 WTPZ32 KNHC 031431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 ...GIL NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 135.7W ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 135.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, with a turn toward the west forecast by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected over the next few days, and the post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate around midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gil. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Forecast Advisory Number 14

1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2025 484 WTPZ22 KNHC 031431 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 135.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 135.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 134.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.2N 138.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.7N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.9N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 151.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 135.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
NHC Webmaster
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5 years 11 months ago
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