National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 222044 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 110W 64 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 1 84(85) 9(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 115W 50 X 45(45) 24(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 115W 64 X 19(19) 23(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 31(31) 59(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 57(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 85(90) 1(91) X(91) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) 1(68) X(68) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 6(53) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 222044 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 ...KRISTY BECOMES A HURRICANE AND APPEARS POISED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 108.5W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 108.5 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this westward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected and Kristy could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin

...KRISTY BECOMES A HURRICANE AND APPEARS POISED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Oct 22 the center of Kristy was located near 14.7, -108.5 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 222042 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 95NE 70SE 70SW 95NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 65SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN=

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kristy, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Torres-Vazquez

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 221454 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 Kristy still appears to be on an intensification trend this morning. The storm's structure on satellite imagery is quite well organized, with a large curved band on its western side, and a smaller central dense overcast that suggests a formative inner core may be developing. There has not been much passive microwave imagery for a more in-depth look at the convective structure since the prior advisory, but based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates (T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB), the initial intensity is being increased to 50 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving a little north of due west this morning, with the motion estimated at 280/15 kt. A well-established subtropical mid-level ridge should continue to steer the tropical cyclone westward, with some of the guidance even showing a little farther south of due west over the next 48-60 h. By this weekend, the ridge becomes eroded towards its western edge by a mid- to upper-level trough that should allow Kristy to begin gaining latitude on Friday into the weekend. The track forecast this cycle is nearly on top of the previous NHC track forecast for the first 48 h, and is a little to the south and west thereafter, blending the consensus aids TCVE and HCCA with the prior track at the end of the forecast period. As alluded to in previous discussions, the environment appears quite favorable for intensification, with low shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist surrounding environment. In fact, rapid intensification is becoming a distinct possibility as the storm forms an inner core. Indeed, the latest ECMWF-SHIPS guidance is giving Kristy a 43 percent chance of a 45-kt increase in intensity over the next 36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast thus was increased over the next couple of days, and now peaks Kristy as a 110 kt category 3 hurricane in 60-72 h. It is worth noting that the hurricane-regional model guidance mean is still a little above that peak intensity. After 72 h, the same upper-level trough eroding the subtropical ridge should also contribute to a rapid increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear over Kristy as it also moves over increasingly cool ocean waters. Thus, a fast rate of weakening is likely to begin by this weekend, in good agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.7N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.6N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.5N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Torres-Vazquez

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 14:53:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 15:29:24 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 221450 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 125.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/TORRES-VAZQUEZ=

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 221451 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 78 18(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 110W 50 17 48(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 110W 64 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 12(12) 80(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 61(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 72(77) 14(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 42(42) 21(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 19(40) X(40) X(40) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 84(85) 5(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 8(65) X(65) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 6(42) X(42) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 18(54) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/TORRES-VAZQUEZ

...KRISTY COULD RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 AM MST Tue Oct 22 the center of Kristy was located near 14.7, -106.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 221451 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 ...KRISTY COULD RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 106.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 106.6 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a continued westward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Kristy could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by the latter part of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Torres-Vazquez

310
ABPZ20 KNHC 221120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kristy, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:37:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 09:28:54 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220835 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 Satellite images indicate that Kristy has continued to gradually become better organized during the overnight hours. A convective burst has been occurring over the low-level center, an indication that a central core could be forming. The cyclone also has some impressive curved banding to the north and west, although these bands are a bit far from the center. A pair of ASCAT passes from 22/0346 UTC and 22/0441 UTC showed tropical storm force winds in the northern semi-circle, with vectors in the 35 to 38 kt range. Since the time of the ASCAT passes, Kristy's convection has become better organized, with latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at a consensus T-3.0/45 kt. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt for this advisory. Kristy is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone will steer it westward for the next 3 days or so. Friday into the weekend, a turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected as Kristy rounds the western periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge, and a mid-latitude upper-level trough approaches from the west. The track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous official forecast and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance at days 4 and 5, so confidence in this part of the forecast is a bit below average. Environmental conditions are favorable for steady strengthening, and rapid intensification cannot be ruled out. For the next 72 h, Kristy will remain within an environment of warm ocean temperatures, relatively weak vertical wind shear, and a moist troposphere. Beyond 72 h, southerly or southwesterly vertical wind shear will begin to increase over the cyclone, becoming strong in 4 to 5 days. Kristy should also cross the 26C isotherm in about 4 days and move into a much more stable environment. Therefore, weakening should begin in 3 to 4 days, with the potential for rapid weakening in 4 to 5 days. The intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous prediction, which calls for Kristy to peak at 100 kt in a few days, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.2N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220834 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 110W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 87(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 110W 50 X 48(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 110W 64 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 55(57) 32(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 43(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 71(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 35(74) 1(75) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 42(57) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 264 WTPZ32 KNHC 220834 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 ...KRISTY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 104.8W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 104.8 West. Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Kristy is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Oct 22 the center of Kristy was located near 14.2, -104.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220833 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kristy, located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 02:44:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 03:28:56 GMT