National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 14:40:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 15:27:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 14:40:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 14:40:33 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 333 FOPZ13 KNHC 051438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 804 WTPZ43 KNHC 051438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 Henriette's cloud pattern has deteriorated a bit overnight. Modest southeasterly shear, evidence of a slight southeast to northwest tilt with height in a 0638 UTC GPM microwave image, and an increasingly inhibiting thermodynamic environment continue to impede strengthening. Based on a compromise of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and recent CIMSS SATCON objective intensity analysis of 46 kt, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the next few days due to the above mentioned adverse atmospheric conditions, and Henriette traversing slightly cooler oceanic temperatures. Only the HAFS-B hurricane model suggests an increase to 50 kt during the 24-36 hrs. Of course, a 5 kt increase isn't out of the question. Beyond day 3, toward the end of the week, the thermodynamic environment is expected to become even more stifling while Henriette moves over the subtropical central Pacific waters. Subsequently, gradual weakening is noted in the official forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one and is hedged toward the IVCN intensity consensus, and is just above the Decay-SHIPS statistical aid. Henriette's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. A general west-northwestward or westward motion is expected through day 4 while a strong subtropical ridge remains to the north of the cyclone. Toward the end of the period, Henriette is forecast to gradually turn northwestward in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the central north Pacific. The track forecast is essentially an update from the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the ECMWF control. Henriette's wind radii were adjusted based on a 0839 UTC Oceansat-3 Scatterometer overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 124.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.4N 134.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 18.8N 137.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 19.3N 140.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 21.0N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.4N 150.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 402 WTPZ23 KNHC 051438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 124.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 124.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.4N 134.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.8N 137.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 140.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.0N 146.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.4N 150.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 124.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 403 WTPZ33 KNHC 051438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025 ...HENRIETTE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC... ...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 124.3W ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 124.3 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next few days followed by gradual weakening toward the end of the week while the cyclone passes to the east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...HENRIETTE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC... ...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Aug 05 the center of Henriette was located near 16.4, -124.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

681
ABPZ20 KNHC 051123
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula. Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific
basin Thursday night or Friday morning.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles offshore of
the coast of Central America is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
it moves west-northwestward around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 08:44:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 08:44:54 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 The satellite presentation of Henriette has degraded some since the previous advisory, with cloud tops warming and the curved band structure becoming more fragmented. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 37 to 46 kt during the past several hours. Meanwhile, a timely 05/0545Z Metop-C ASCAT pass showed several 40-45 kt wind barbs, assisting with determining the initial intensity as well as the extent of the tropical-storm-force wind radii. The initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 45 kt. The cyclone is moving west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 13 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, as Henriette moves along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north. Between 36 and 72 hours, a slight turn toward the west is forecast as the ridge strengthens north of the cyclone. Beyond 72 hours, a turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest is anticipated as an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii erodes the western extent of the subtropical ridge steering the cyclone. The official track forecast closely follows a blend of the latest HCCA/TVCE/FSSE consensus guidance, and is very close to the track from the previous advisory. Henriette appears to have a brief window for further intensification over the next 12 to 18 hours, as sea surface temperatures hover between 26 and 26.5C, mid-level moisture remains sufficient, and vertical wind shear stays light. Little change in strength is expected then through 36 hours as the cyclone moves over slightly cooler water but close to the 26C isotherm, while shear remains light and the mid-levels remain moist. Beyond 36 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over progressively cooler waters, with mid-level moisture decreasing, and these conditions should lead to gradual weakening. The official forecast maintains Henriette as a tropical cyclone through 120 hours, however, it would not be surprising if it transitions into a post-tropical low prior to day 5. The intensity forecast is most closely aligned with the FSSE, which is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.9N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 17.8N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 18.2N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 18.5N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 19.0N 139.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 20.3N 144.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 22.3N 149.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050842 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henriette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...HENRIETTE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 123.1W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 123.1 West. Henriette is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...HENRIETTE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Aug 04 the center of Henriette was located near 15.9, -123.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 714 WTPZ23 KNHC 050841 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 130.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 139.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 144.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 149.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula. Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific
basin Thursday night or Friday.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles offshore of
the coast of Central America is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:45:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 03:27:05 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:45:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:45:30 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 017 FOPZ13 KNHC 050239 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 11 16(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 147 WTPZ43 KNHC 050239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 Henriette has become slightly better organized this afternoon, with curved banding becoming more defined and a brief burst of deep convection developing over the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 knots, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 39 to 43 knots during the past few hours and show an upward trend. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 knots. The cyclone is moving west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 13 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as Henriette moves along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north. Between 48 and 72 hours, a slight turn toward the west is forecast as the ridge strengthens north of the cyclone. Beyond 72 hours, a turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest is anticipated as a weakness develops in the ridge north of Hawaii due to an amplifying longwave trough near 160W. The official track forecast remains near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and is very close to the previous advisory. Henriette appears to have a brief window for further intensification over the next day or so, as sea surface temperatures hover between 26 and 27C, mid-level moisture remains sufficient, and vertical wind shear stays light. After 36 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over progressively cooler waters, with mid-level moisture gradually decreasing, and these conditions should lead to steady weakening. The official forecast maintains Henriette as a tropical cyclone through 120 hours, however, it would not be surprising if it transitions into a post-tropical low prior to day 5. The intensity forecast is most closely aligned with the SHIPS and ICON guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 18.6N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 19.9N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 148.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 PM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 Henriette has become slightly better organized this afternoon, with curved banding becoming more defined and a brief burst of deep convection developing over the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 knots, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 39 to 43 knots during the past few hours and show an upward trend. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 knots. The cyclone is moving west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 13 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as Henriette moves along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north. Between 48 and 72 hours, a slight turn toward the west is forecast as the ridge strengthens north of the cyclone. Beyond 72 hours, a turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest is anticipated as a weakness develops in the ridge north of Hawaii due to an amplifying longwave trough near 160W. The official track forecast remains near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and is very close to the previous advisory. Henriette appears to have a brief window for further intensification over the next day or so, as sea surface temperatures hover between 26 and 27C, mid-level moisture remains sufficient, and vertical wind shear stays light. After 36 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over progressively cooler waters, with mid-level moisture gradually decreasing, and these conditions should lead to steady weakening. The official forecast maintains Henriette as a tropical cyclone through 120 hours, however, it would not be surprising if it transitions into a post-tropical low prior to day 5. The intensity forecast is most closely aligned with the SHIPS and ICON guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 18.6N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 19.9N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 148.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC) NNNN