National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 the center of Kristy was located near 19.7, -128.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 261433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 128.4W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 128.4 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the weekend, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Western East Pacific:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently located well
to the southwest of the southwestern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. This system is expected to move into the central
Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open up into a trough on Monday. The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 09:23:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260834 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 29 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260833 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN=

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260834 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 127.6W ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 127.6 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 the center of Kristy was located near 18.7, -127.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260519
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the western portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Western East Pacific:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently located well
to the southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. An area of low
pressure could develop from this system over the next couple of days
as it moves into the western part of the East Pacific. Environmental
conditions are then forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. This system is expected to move into the central
Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 02:33:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 03:22:40 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 275 WTPZ42 KNHC 260233 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Kristy's deepest convection is being displaced to the north of the center due to strong southerly shear, diagnosed at 30 kt by UW-CIMSS, although some convective elements are still trying to form within the southern eyewall. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite estimates now range between 80-100 kt, and Kristy's intensity is therefore set at a blend of 90 kt. Rapid weakening is forecast to continue as the hurricane encounters even stronger shear--and cooler sea surface temperatures--over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows previous official forecast trends and the latest consensus aids. Model-simulated satellite data indicate that Kristy should lose its deep convection by Sunday, and the cyclone is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. The low is forecast to open up into a trough on Monday. Kristy is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula. The ridge should keep Kristy on a northwestward or north-northwestward trajectory for the next 36 hours, but once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is expected to turn westward and slow down considerably when it runs into a low-level ridge to the north. The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant track changes were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260232 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG=

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260232 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 7 43(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 130W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260232 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 ...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 126.9W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 126.9 West. Kristy is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and will likely continue to impact the region through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KRISTY WEAKENING RAPIDLY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 the center of Kristy was located near 17.6, -126.9 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the central portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 20:34:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 21:22:51 GMT

Issued at 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 242033 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Satellite imagery continues to show a circular eye that has been warming through the afternoon, with varying degrees of clearing. While the inner eye has not been as clear over the past few hours, subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have either increased or held steady, with a data-T value of T/7.0 and T/6.5, from TAFB and SAB respectively. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have increased as well. Using an average of these intensity estimates and latest trends in satellite images, the initial intensity is set to 140 kt for this advisory. Therefore, Kristy has strengthened into a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Kristy's forward motion remains steady, estimated at 270/14 kt while being steered by a ridge over the northeastern Pacific. The hurricane will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest occurring through this weekend as a trough to the west begins to influence Kristy's motion. The system will rapidly weaken by the end of this weekend, with the remnants then turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow. The latest NHC track forecast has once again shifted slightly to the right, closer to the consensus aids, but remains on the southwest side of the guidance envelope. For about the next 24 hours, Kristy looks to remain in a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. Some slight fluctuations are possible in the short term, especially if the system has another eyewall replacement cycle. The environment then rapidly becomes hostile as the hurricane enters an area of stronger vertical wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance remains insistent on rapid weakening occurring through the end of the forecast period. Model-simulated satellite imagery also mirrors this trend, suggesting that Kristy will lose convection and become post-tropical by 72 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, and open into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast also follows these trends with only minor adjustments made this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 14.2N 121.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.1N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 19.8N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 21.7N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.2N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1800Z 21.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/B. Adams

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 242031 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.1N 125.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.8N 129.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.2N 131.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.4N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B. ADAMS=