National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 545 FOPZ15 KNHC 271432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 21 16(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN ABUTTING THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 103.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 103.0 West. John is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast or just inland of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight while the center begins to interact with the higher terrain of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with locally over 10 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally over 6 inches are expected today across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN ABUTTING THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 18.1, -103.0 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 John's satellite depiction has banding mainly concentrated on the southern semicircle. The center of the system is very near or just touching the coast of southwestern Mexico. There continues to be burst of convection within the curved bands to the south of the center, and GLM data depicts plenty of lightning within the bands. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 55 kt. Given the satellite presentation will lean to the higher side of these estimates, with an initial intensity for this advisory at 50 kt. The center of John is right along the coast, and gradual weakening should continue as the storm moves inland or moves along the coastline. Later today, the high mountainous terrain will disrupt the low-level circulation and a faster rate of weakening should ensue. Beyond the next 24 h, the forecast is highly dependent if the center of John survives the interaction with land, and could dissipate sooner than what is currently forecast. If the surface center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should re-emerge over the water in a few days, although models do not show regeneration and keep the system as a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and simple consensus aids. John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/3 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction with mountainous terrain. The track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies to the right of the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 271432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.0W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 330SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.0W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 102.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 103.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 21 16(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER KELLY NNNN

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN ABUTTING THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 103.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 103.0 West. John is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast or just inland of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight while the center begins to interact with the higher terrain of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with locally over 10 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally over 6 inches are expected today across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm John, located very near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 11:40:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:35:06 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271140 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN HUGGING THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 102.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 102.9 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast or just inland of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight while the center begins to interact with the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through today, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Rosado

...JOHN HUGGING THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 17.9, -102.9 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:02:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:35:06 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 521 WTPZ45 KNHC 270900 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a partially exposed surface center with a primary banding feature wrapping around from the southeast. A few fragmented intermittent bursts of deep convection are also evident in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 55 kt and is based on the TAFB and SAB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and a UW-CIMSS DMINT objective estimate using SSMIS F16-17 passes of 56 and 55 kt, respectively. Gradual weakening should continue as the cyclone approaches and moves inland. The high terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains is expected to disrupt what remains of John's inner core and should cause a faster rate of weakening. Therefore, John is expected to become a remnant low in 36 hrs. If the surface center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should re-emerge over the water in a few days; however, regeneration appears unlikely. The NHC intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the global model guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus. John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/4 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction with the rugged mountainous terrain. The track forecast favors a compromise of the global model solutions and is just to the right of the HCCA consensus aid. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through today. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.8N 102.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.3N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.6N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 08:58:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 08:58:18 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270854 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 11 30(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 270854 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.9W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 330SE 300SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.9W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 104.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.6N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 102.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 270854 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOHN CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 102.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 102.9 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move along the coast or just inland of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected today, with a faster rate of weakening forecast by tonight while the center begins to interact with the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through today, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight into Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JOHN CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 17.8, -102.9 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.9W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 330SE 300SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.9W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 104.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.6N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 102.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN

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