National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 775 WTPZ35 KNHC 252051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 101.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, this is case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 101.5 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on early Thursday and be inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 20:53:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 21:29:01 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252052 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 33 15(48) 4(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) L CARDENAS 50 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 56 15(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ZIHUATANEJO 50 11 17(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ZIHUATANEJO 64 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 23 4(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 34 44 8(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) P MALDONADO 34 10 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252052 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 John is becoming more organized this afternoon. Satellite imagery has shown deep bursts of convection forming near the center with curved banding around the majority of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak from TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, and the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 45 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. An Air Force Hurricane Reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate John and gather more information about the intensity, location, and structure. The tropical-storm-force winds in the southeast quadrant have been adjusted outward significantly based on an earlier partial ASCAT pass. Little has changed in the intensity forecast reasoning. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are conducive for further intensification, as long as the storm remains over water. SHIPS-RII, a rapid intensification indicator, shows about a 70 percent chance of rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast now shows John becoming a hurricane in 24 hours as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. This forecast is near the top of the guidance, closest to HCCA, but could still be conservative. John is moving with an estimated motion of 355/3 kt. The track forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance has shifted westward, and is showing John either nearly stationary or slowly following the coastline northwestward. This motion seems to depend on the strength of the ridge to the north-northwest, which is centered over the southwestern United States. However, the current motion suggests John should move closer to the coast with the center likely to move inland on Thursday afternoon or evening, though this could occur sooner. Future adjustments to the track forecast may be necessary, and there remains a large spread in the aids. A Hurricane Warning has been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and interests there should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have also been extended westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin later today. The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have also been extended westward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.1N 101.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.5N 101.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.0N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.8, -101.5 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 740 WTPZ25 KNHC 252051 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 130SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 210SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 101.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 110SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 110SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 101.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 102.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 101.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/R. ZELINSKY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 17:52:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 15:28:45 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251752 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 101.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 101.4 West. John is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (5 km/h). A slow motion to the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on early Thursday and be inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast within the hurricane watch area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

...JOHN STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.5, -101.4 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
re-formed Tropical Storm John, located just south of southwestern
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 14:57:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 15:28:45 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico. The CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity, likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough. Convection has gradually become better organized based on geostationary infrared and visibly imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water. Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea surface temperatures. Statistical guidance even suggests there is an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and at the top of the guidance envelope. However, there is a chance John may become a hurricane prior to landfall. The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with an estimate motion of 80/2 kt. Models indicate that John will gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly towards the coast on Thursday. Regional and global models vary the timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF lingering offshore until Friday. The official track forecast calls for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this timing. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251455 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 10(10) 14(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 18(19) 9(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251455 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN REFORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 101.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 101.4 West. John is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion to the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday and move inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast within the hurricane watch area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

...JOHN REFORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.2, -101.4 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251454 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 90SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 110SE 60SW 15NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 101.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase and become better
organized this morning in association with an area of low pressure,
partially associated with the remnants of John, located offshore of
southern Mexico. Ship observations in the area also depict pressure
falling within the area the last several hours. If these trends
continue, advisories will likely be initiated later this morning,
with watches and warnings likely issued for portions of Mexico.
Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system as it is expected to produce heavy rainfall with the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides over a large portion of
southern Mexico through this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251010
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
310 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Outlook Issued to update information about EP95, the system
offshore of Southern Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Update: Recent ship observations indicate significant pressure falls
are occuring with an area of low pressure, partially associated with
the remnants of John, located offshore of Southern Mexico. Shower
and thunderstorm activity also continues to become better organized.
If these trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form
as soon as later today, as long as the system remains over water.
Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system, and regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding and
mudslides over a large portion of southern Mexico through this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
An area of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of
John, is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity
along and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This activity is
showing signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is now
likely to form in the next day or two, as long as the system remains
over water. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding and
mudslides over a large portion of southern Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure, partially associated with the remnants of
John, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms along
the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this system and a tropical
depression could form in the next couple of days or so, depending on
if it stays over water. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to produce heavy rainfall with the potential for
flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly