National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...JOHN MOVING SLOWLY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.6, -102.8 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261747 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...JOHN STATIONARY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 102.7 West. John is currently stationary, a slow northwestward motion towards the coast is anticipated later today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected until the center moves along the coast or inland later today or tonight, which should cause John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall o 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within a few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN STATIONARY... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.5, -102.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 17:47:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 15:36:10 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located just south of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 14:40:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 15:36:10 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261439 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 John continues to depict a small inner core, with earlier microwave images depicting a small eye feature. Since that microwave pass, the eye feature has become more prevalent on infrared imagery. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 65 to 75 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 65 kt, respectively. Using a blend of the intensity estimates and the continued improved satellite depiction, the intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is estimated to be moving northwestward at 310/5 kt. The official forecast is shifted slightly to the right in the near term, which follows recent satellite trends and lies near the latest HCCA consensus aid. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later today. However, some of the global model fields do linger the system offshore near the coast a little longer, particularly the ECMWF global model. In the long term, a turn back to the west-northwest is anticipated as the system weakens and is steered by the ridge over northern Mexico. The overall environment remains favorable for John to continue to strengthen until landfall with very warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, abundant moisture throughout all levels of the atmosphere. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to call for strengthening up until landfall and shows a peak intensity of 75 kt, which is slightly lower than previous intensity peak due to the latest forecast showing the system moving inland a little faster than the previous forecast. John has very large rain shield and flooding impacts will extend well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are imminent. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and tropical storm are ongoing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.5N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 261439 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 3 19(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) L CARDENAS 50 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 59 1(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261439 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 102.7 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should continue through the remainder of today. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the center moves along the coast or inland later today, which should cause John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall o 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later within a few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.5, -102.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 261438 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 360SE 300SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 80SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 102.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.5, -102.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located just south of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:44:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 09:35:24 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261144 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 ...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 102.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 102.6 West. John is moving toward the west-northwest near 4 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the center moves along the coast or inland on Friday, which should cause John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (15 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should continue through today. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... ...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.3, -102.6 with movement WNW at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260919 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt, and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend of these data. The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt before landfall. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion through today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has been performing the best with this system. The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward to Manzanillo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260909 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt, and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend of these data. The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt before landfall. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted to a little to the left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has been performing the best with this system. The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward to Manzanillo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 08:36:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 09:35:24 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt, and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend of these data. The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt before landfall. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted to a little to the left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has been performing the best with this system.the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted to a little to the left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has been performing the best with this system. The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward to Manzanillo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts