National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 08:51:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:29:09 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240850 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 50 66 X(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...JOHN NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Sep 24 the center of John was located near 17.3, -100.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240850 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...JOHN NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 100.0W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the the Hurricane Warning from east of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 100.0 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A very slow motion westward followed by very little motion is forecasted over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is anticipated, and John is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240849 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240555
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located just inland near the coast of southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 05:54:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:29:28 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240554 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE JOHN JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 99.2W ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning east of Lagunas de Chacahua and the whole Tropical Storm Warning area. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 99.2 West. John is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move further inland near the coast of southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening over the high terrain of southern Mexico is forecast now that the core of John has moved inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Recently, the Acapulco International Airport reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the warning area for the next few hours. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing within portions of the hurricane warning area and should continue for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 920 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 128 WTPZ65 KNHC 240322 TCUEP5 Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 920 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO... Satellite data indicates that Hurricane John has made landfall along the southern coast of Mexico just to the south-southwest of Marquelia, Mexico in the state of Guerrero at around 915 PM CST (0315 UTC). The maximum sustained winds at landfall are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 959 mb (28.32 inches). This makes John a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 920 PM CST...0320 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 98.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin

...JOHN NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Sep 24 the center of John was located near 17.3, -100.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:34:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:29:28 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 210 WTPZ45 KNHC 240233 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to strengthen this evening with a small tight inner core, which was well depicted in SSMIS microwave images around 00z. Infrared imagery depicts an eye with cold cloud tops near -80 C wrapping around the core. Subjective intensity estimates have continued to increase this evening with data-T values of T5.5 from both SAB and TAFB, with final-T values constrained due to the rapid intensification. Given the most recent satellite depiction and using the data-T values, the intensity for this advisory is increased to 105 kt. John is now a major category 3 hurricane. The hurricane could still strengthen some more over the next couple of hours before it makes landfall along the coast of southern Mexico. After John moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast over the higher terrain with the small inner core quickly deteriorating. The rate of weakening could occur faster than what is currently forecast and the 24 h forecast point is held for continuity inland as it is possible the system could dissipate sooner. John continues to move northward around 7 kt. This current motion should continue as John nears the coast, making landfall in the next couple of hours and will continue to move inland on Tuesday. The cyclone is forecast to slow its forward motion as it moves inland and dissipates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to be a major hurricane as it reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area in the next couple of hours. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area. 2. Slow-moving Hurricane John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.3N 98.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240232 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) P MALDONADO 64 51 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONGOING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 98.8W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next couple of hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next couple hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 98.8 West. John is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico in the next couple of hours. John will continue to move inland over southern Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. John is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible the next couple of hours before John makes landfall. After landfall, the system will rapidly weaken over the high terrain of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing within portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONGOING... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 16.3, -98.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240231 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 98.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 23:49:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT

...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT... As of 6:00 PM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 15.9, -98.6 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232348 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 98.6W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 98.6 West. John is moving toward the north near 8 mph (15 km/h). A slow motion to the north or north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. John is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible over the next few hours and John could become a major hurricane before making landfall along the coast of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are imminent within portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the warning area. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

600
ABPZ20 KNHC 232303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located near the coast of southern Mexico.

East-Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is no longer expected as
it moves eastward towards the coast of southern Mexico the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly